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Endogenous adjusted Output Quotas - The Abolishment of the Raw Milk Quota in the European Union AgEcon
Lips, Markus; Rieder, Peter.
This paper discusses an approach to implement output quotas in the GTAP model which permits an endogenous adjustment of both the supplied quantity and the quota rent. Since the quota rent is interpreted as additional earnings of the factors used no change of the worldwide GTAP data base is required. Several modifications of the GTAP model and two exogenous coefficients are necessary. Considering uncertain values of one of the coefficients, systematic sensitivity analysis is applied. The abolishment of the raw milk quota in the European Union would lead to a remarkable decrease in raw milk prices in most member countries. The raw milk production increases in Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands while it declines in Greece and Portugal. In the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: General equilibrium model; GTAP; Output quota; Raw milk production; Sensitivity analysis; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24817
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Deriving CGE Baselines from Macro-economic Projections AgEcon
Mueller, Marc; Ferrari, Emanuele.
Quantitative policy analysts are usually confronted with the problem to derive a base-line scenario that reflects the most likely state of an economy in a future year. The methods used in practice to derive such a base-line scenarios are heterogeneous and range from the usage of the last observable year to complete and consistent estimation procedures. In the case of general equilibrium (CGE) analyses, the Scenar2020 project (European Commission 2006a) is one example how projections of macro-economic indicators (exogenous drivers) are used to construct the base-line as a model scenario: Starting from a calibrated version, exogenous variables are modified until macro-economic projections are met. However, numerous projections refer to economic indicators...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: General equilibrium model; Baseline construction; Parameter estimation; Macro-economic projections; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114638
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Exploring growth linkages and market opportunities for agriculture in Southern Africa AgEcon
Nin Pratt, Alejandro; Diao, Xinshen.
Considering the heterogeneity of the countries of southern Africa and the presence of South Africa and other middle-income countries in the region, southern Africa has a unique opportunity to exploit agricultural potential and regional trade opportunities through regional dynamics and integration. We analyze the implications of such opportunities for the growth of the low-income countries, using a regional general equilibrium model that captures growth linkages. We find that growth in the middle-income southern African countries, such as South Africa, benefits the region’s low-income countries through increased demand for their agricultural exports. Agricultural productivity growth, however, is necessary for low-income countries to take advantage of South...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Regional trade; General equilibrium model; Regional integration; Agricultural productivity; Agricultural growth; Grain production; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55411
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Did Agricultural Technological Changes Affect China’s Regional Disparity? AgEcon
Liu, Xiaoyun; Wang, Xiuqing; Mao, Xuefeng; Luo, Wanchun; Xin, Xian.
China’s agricultural sector has developed very rapidly in the past 30 years and agricultural technological progress is deemed one of the most substantial factors leading to its rapid agricultural GDP growth. In this paper, we assess the impacts of agricultural technological changes on regional disparity using a general equilibrium model of multiple regions and multiple sectors. Our results suggest that agricultural technological changes significantly reduced China’s agricultural regional disparity and accounted for 40% reduction in agricultural regional disparity in terms of agricultural GDP per capita. Agricultural technological changes, however, led to an increase in China’s overall regional disparity and accounted for 6% increase in its overall regional...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural technological change; Regional disparity; General equilibrium model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q16; R13; O18; O33; C67.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50322
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The Effect of the Sugar Program on the U.S. Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Boyd, Roy; Uri, Noel D..
This study examines the effect of the sugar tariff-rate import quota program on the U.S. economy. Based on a computable general equilibrium model, the analysis suggests that a complete elimination of the sugar program will reduce output for all producing sectors by about $2.85 billion. For producing sectors in addition to the agriculture-program crops, crude oil and petroleum refining sectors, output will increase by about $2.98 billion. Additionally, there will be an increase of about $197 million on $121 million in the consumption of goods and services and in welfare, respectively. The government sector realizes a reduction in revenue of about $15 million.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: General equilibrium model; Consumer welfare; Sugar program; Tariff-rate quota; Agribusiness; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1993 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62335
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What Can the Poor Expect From Trade Liberalization? Opening the "Black Box" of Trade Modeling AgEcon
Bouet, Antoine.
Trade liberalization is expected to act positively on development and poverty alleviation, both of which have become a high priority of international community. This explains why numerous studies have focused on assessing the expected benefits of trade liberalization on poverty. The main empirical tool for these assessments has been the use of multi-country Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGEM). These models, however, have produced divergent results. As demonstrated by recent studies, the associated increase in world welfare from full trade liberalization ranges from 0.2% to 3.1% — results that differ by a factor of 15 to 1! The impact on poverty headcount is also very divergent as the number of people lifted out from poverty ranges from 72 million...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Trade modeling; Poverty alleviation; General equilibrium model; Assessment; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58575
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Modeling Economywide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Models AgEcon
Pizer, William A.; Burtraw, Dallas; Harrington, Winston; Newell, Richard G.; Sanchirico, James N..
Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economywide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: inefficiently designed and/or sector-based policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emissions reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economywide policy does not significantly raise costs....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate policy; General equilibrium model; Partial equilibrium model; Cost; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q25; D58; D61; Q48.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10502
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