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| Himics, Mihaly; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin; Ciaian, Pavel; Shrestha, Shailesh. |
| In this paper the impact of possible input cost developments on the EU agriculture is analysed under ceteris paribus conditions. Two scenarios are developed with the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The scenarios assume symmetric input price changes in positive and negative directions around a projected baseline in year 2020. The magnitude of the input price changes are based on observed volatility. To measure the volatility, the annual time-series of the CoCo database were analysed, which contains input cost estimates for a multitude of agricultural activities and cost categories at the geographical level of the EU countries. Our results suggest that the uncertainty in input cost development has a strong potential to affect commodity market balances and... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Input costs; Volatility; CAPRI; Farm income; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122531 |
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