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The Effect of Communicating Ambiguous Risk Information on Choice AgEcon
Melkonyan, Tigran A..
Decision makers are frequently confronted with ambiguous risk information about activities with potential hazards. This may be a result of conflicting risk estimates from multiple sources or ambiguous risk information from a single source. The paper considers processing ambiguous risk information and its effect on the behavior of a decision maker with a-maximin expected utility preferences. The effect of imprecise risk information on behavior is related to the content of information, the decision maker’s trust in different sources of information, and his or her aversion to ambiguity.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: A-Maximin Expected Utility; Aggregation of expert opinions; Ambiguity; Knightian uncertainty; Risk communication; Trust in information source; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117170
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Economics of Robust Surveillance on Exotic Animal Diseases: the Case of Bluetongue AgEcon
Carrasco, Luis Roman; Souza Monteiro, Diogo M.; Cook, Alasdair J.C.; Moffitt, L. Joe.
Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designing surveillance programs for exotic and emerging diseases is very challenging because of knowledge gaps on the probability of incursion and mechanisms of spread. Using the example of Bluetongue Virus, which is exotic to the UK, we develop a metapopulation epidemic-economic modelling framework that considers the incursion, detection, spread and control of a disease in a livestock production system composed of heterogeneous subpopulations. The model is then embedded in an information gap (info-gap) framework to assess the robustness of surveillance and vaccination policies to unacceptable outbreaks losses and applied to the case of Bluetongue in the UK. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Compartmental epidemic model; Emergent animal disease; Knightian uncertainty; Sentinel surveillance system; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61817
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