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Institutions and Demographic Responses to Shocks: Wuttemberg, 1634-1870 31
Guinnane, Timothy W.; Ogilvie, Sheilagh.
Simple Malthusian models remain an important tool for understanding pre-modern demographic systems and their connection to the economy. But most recent literature has lost sight of the institutional context for demographic behavior that lay at the heart of Malthus’s own analysis. This paper estimates a short-run version of a Malthusian model for two Württemberg communities from 1646 to 1870. Württemberg differed institutionally from the northwest European societies analyzed in previous studies. The impact of institutional differences shows clearly in differing demographic reactions to economic shocks. Mortality was less sensitive to shocks than one would expect, while nuptiality was especially sensitive.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Malthusian models; Mortality; Fertility; Nuptiality; Guilds; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; N33; J10.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5977
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The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists 31
Guinnane, Timothy W..
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; Long-run growth; Malthusian models; Quantity-quality trade-off; Consumer/Household Economics; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; N3; O1; O4.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95271
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