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MARKOV CHAIN MODELING OF ENDEMIC CATTLE DISEASES IN THE TROPICS OF MEXICO Ciência Rural
Rojas,José Alfonso Barajas; Riemann,Hans; Franti,Charles.
Endemic diseases measured by prevalence of IgG antibodies by ELISA all showed remarkably stable overall prevalences over a study period of 3 years. This however does not mean that incidence is low or absent. Observed transition from the state of being positive for a disease to the state of being negative and vice versa suggested fairly high incidence rates (and rates of waning antibodies) for all 19 disease agents tested for. In spite of this dynamic situation Markov Chain simulations indicate that a steady prevalence is reached in a fairly short time. Markov Chain simulations may also be useful in elucidating seasonal changes in prevalence.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Prevalence; Markov Chain; México; ELISA.
Ano: 1993 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84781993000300014
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A Computer-Assisted Method for Depositional Model Determination ArchiMer
Ndiaye, Mapathe; Davaud, Eric; Jorry, Stephan.
A software has been developed to overcome the difficulties related to depositional model determination in Geosciences. The implemented methods, Walker, Harper and Turk methods, based on Markov process and Markov chain analysis, have been used in a case study. The results of the analysis are consistent with previous works. The analysis shows also that the results are accurate and do not rely on the used method. Therefore, the obtained depositional sequence is suitable to build a depositional model on which reliable sequence stratigraphic studies can be based.
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Depositional Model; Sequence; Log; Markov Chain; Transition Matrix; Walker; Harper; Turk; El Garia Formation.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00248/35880/35376.pdf
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Impact of the EU Milk Quota on Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Jongeneel, Roelof A..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Markov Chain; Milk Quota Scheme; Structural Change; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; O11; C11.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50943
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Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Jongeneel, Roelof A..
With the milk quota announced to be abolished in the future, the dairy sector is going to face a significant policy regime shift. This paper sets out to analyze the impact of milk quotas on the dairy farm structure of two important milk producing member states: Germany and the Netherlands. Based on proper behavioral assumptions, non stationary Markov chain models are specified and estimated using a generalized cross entropy procedure, which takes into account both sample and prior information. Moreover four mobility indicators characterizing structural change are developed and calculated. Structural change in the dairy sector as measured by the mobility measures is faster in West Germany than in the Netherlands. However, in the transition region East...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Markov Chain; Milk Quota; Structural Change; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43659
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Evaluation of approaches to control of Maedi-Visna disease of sheep using a Markov chain simulation model for a range of typical British Flocks AgEcon
Stott, Alistair W.; Milne, Catherine E.; Gunn, George J..
An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of Maedi-Visna virus in typical British flocks. On closed hill farms, low probability of effective contact was most critical for control. In open low ground flocks, purchasing accredited replacements eliminated disease spread, otherwise flock size was the most important factor governing flock prevalence. Results highlighted the need for more epidemiological information about Maedi-Visna, particularly whether hill farms act as a hidden reservoir of virus or reduce the impact...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Maedi-Visna; Model; Markov Chain; Sheep; Control.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61102
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