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Measurement of Yield distribution: A Time-Varying Distribution Model 31
Yang, Tsung Yu.
Regarding the nature of yield data, there are two basic characteristics that need to be accommodated while we are about to model a yield distribution. The first one is the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which causes the heteroscedasticity related problems. The second one is the left skewness of the yield distribution. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yields are detrended first and the detrended yields are taken as observed data modeled by various parametric and nonparametric methods. Based on a two-stage estimation structure, a mixed normal distribution seems to better capture the secondary distribution from catastrophic years than a Beta distribution. The implication to the risk management is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Time-Varying Distribution; Mixture Distribution; Crop Insurance; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103422
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Evaluating Yield Models for Crop Insurance Rating 31
Lanoue, Christopher; Sherrick, Bruce J.; Woodard, Joshua D.; Paulson, Nicholas D..
Generated crop insurance rates depend critically on the distributional assumptions of the underlying crop yield loss model. Using farm level corn yield data from 1972-2008, we revisit the problem of examining in-sample goodness-of-fit measures across a set of flexible parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric distributions. Simulations are also conducted to investigate the out-of-sample efficiency properties of several competing distributions. The results indicate that more parameterized distributional forms fit the data better in-sample due to the fact that they have more parameters, but are generally less efficient out-of-sample–and in some cases more biased–than more parsimonious forms which also fit the data adequately, such as the Weibull. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Yield distributions; Crop Insurance; Weibull Distribution; Beta Distribution; Mixture Distribution; Out-of-Sample Efficiency; Goodness-of-Fit; Insurance Rating Efficiency; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61761
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