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Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition AgEcon
Brown, John C.; Guinnane, Timothy W..
The Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe (or European Fertility Project, hereafter EFP) was carried out at Princeton University's Office of Population Research in the 1960s and 1970s. This project aimed to characterize the decline of fertility that took place in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The project's summary statements argued that social and economic forces played little role in bringing about the fertility transition. The statement stresses instead a process of innovation and diffusion. A central feature of the EFP argument is a series of statistical exercises that purport to show that changes in economic and social conditions exerted little influence on fertility. Two recent papers on Germany for...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; Labor and Human Capital; J13; N33; O15.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28392
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The Evolution of Grain Policy Beyond Europe: Ottoman Grain Administration in the Late Eighteenth Century AgEcon
Agir, Seven.
During the second half of the eighteenth century, the Ottoman policy-makers adopted a more liberal attitude towards price formation in the Ottoman grain markets. This was accompanied by the fiscal and administrative centralization of the grain trade. These seemingly contradictory policy changes could, in part, be explained in the context of conjectural changes in grain demand and supply, which rendered pre-emptive privileges and price controls less effective. The policy change, however, was not only a practical response to the strains on the pre-existing supply network but also reflected a new concern with the state of agricultural production along with the emergence of emulation as a development strategy.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: B15; N33; N35; N43; N45; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Ottoman economic institutions; Grain markets; Liberalization.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107271
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Institutions and Demographic Responses to Shocks: Wuttemberg, 1634-1870 AgEcon
Guinnane, Timothy W.; Ogilvie, Sheilagh.
Simple Malthusian models remain an important tool for understanding pre-modern demographic systems and their connection to the economy. But most recent literature has lost sight of the institutional context for demographic behavior that lay at the heart of Malthus’s own analysis. This paper estimates a short-run version of a Malthusian model for two Württemberg communities from 1646 to 1870. Württemberg differed institutionally from the northwest European societies analyzed in previous studies. The impact of institutional differences shows clearly in differing demographic reactions to economic shocks. Mortality was less sensitive to shocks than one would expect, while nuptiality was especially sensitive.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Malthusian models; Mortality; Fertility; Nuptiality; Guilds; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; N33; J10.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5977
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Social Class and the Fertility Transition: A Critical Comment on the Statistical Results Reported in Simon Szreter's Fertility, Class and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 AgEcon
Barnes, Geoffrey; Guinnane, Timothy W..
Simon Szreter’s book Fertility, Class, and Gender in Britain, 1860-1940 argues that social and economic class fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in marital fertility as reported in the 1911 census of England and Wales. Szreter’s conclusion made the book immediately influential, and it remains so. This finding matters a great deal for debates about the causes of the European fertility decline of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. For decades scholars have argued whether the main forces at work were ideational or social and economic. This note reports a simple re-analysis of Szreter’s own data, which suggests that social class does explain cross-sectional differences in English marital fertility in 1911.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Fertility transition; 1911 Census of England and Wales; Consumer/Household Economics; Labor and Human Capital; J13; N33.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97338
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Moral Hazard in a Mutual Health-Insurance System: German Knappschaften, 1867-1914 AgEcon
Guinnane, Timothy W.; Streb, Jochen.
This paper studies moral hazard in a sickness-insurance fund that provided the model for social-insurance schemes around the world. The German Knappschaften were formed in the medieval period to provide sickness, accident, and death benefits for miners. By the mid-nineteenth century, participation in the Knappschaft was compulsory for workers in mines and related occupations, and the range and generosity of benefits had expanded considerably. Each Knappschaft was locally controlled and self-funded, and their admirers saw in them the ability to use local knowledge and good incentives to deliver benefits at low cost. The Knappschaft underlies Bismarck’s sickness and accident insurance legislation (1883 and 1884), which in turn forms the basis of the German...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Sickness insurance; Moral hazard; Knappschaft; Social insurance; Health Economics and Policy; Political Economy; Public Economics; N33; N43; H55; H53; I18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54533
Registros recuperados: 5
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