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Evaluating Different Growth Scenarios for Organic Farming Using Bayesian Techniques AgEcon
Gardebroek, Cornelis.
Different views exist on the future development of organic agriculture. The Dutch government believes that in 2010 10% of the farm land will be used for organic farming. Others have a more radical view: due to increasing emphasis on sustainable production in the end all farming will be organic. Others believe in a more pessimistic scenario in which the recent growth in organic was just a temporary upswing and that the share of organic farmers already reached its maximum. In this paper different potential scenarios for the further growth of organic farming are evaluated using Bayesian techniques. A nonlinear logistic growth model explaining the share of organic farms is estimated using available historical data for Dutch agriculture. Various scenarios imply...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Bayesian analysis; Non-linear logistic growth curves; Farm Management.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44211
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