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Using Portfolio Theory to Enhance Wheat Yield Stability in Low-Income Nations: An Application in the Yaqui Valley of Northwestern Mexico AgEcon
Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Barkley, Andrew P..
This study applies portfolio theory to wheat varietal selection decisions in order to find risk-minimizing outcomes while holding historical yields constant. Potential correlation across wheat cultivar yields increases the complexity of cultivar selection decisions, with gains in one attribute (yield potential) often associated with losses in another (yield stability). Using location-specific empirical data, portfolio theory can provide producers in low-income countries a tool for developing a recommended portfolio of varieties given a desired risk-aversion level. Based on data from Mexico’s Yaqui Valley, results suggest that sowing a portfolio of wheat varieties could have lowered yield variance by 22% to 33% in Northwest Mexico.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Optimal variety selection; Portfolio analysis; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93223
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Enhancing Farm Profitability through Portfolio Analysis: The Case of Spatial Rice Variety Selection. AgEcon
Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Barkley, Andrew P.; Brad, Watkins; Hignight, Jeffrey A..
The objectives of this paper is to use the large depth of existing literature on portfolio theory and apply it to rice varietal selection for 6 counties in the Arkansas Delta. Results based on 1999-2006 data suggests that combining available varieties using portfolio theory could have increased profits from 3 to 26% (dependent on location) in the Arkansas Delta. The major implication of this research is that data and statistical tools are available to improve the choice of rice varieties to plant each year in specific locations within Arkansas. Specifically, there are large potential gains from combining varieties that are characterized by inverse yield responses to growing conditions such as drought, pest infestation, or the presence of a specific disease.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rice; Portfolio analysis; Optimal variety selection; Risk analysis.; Production Economics; D81; Q16; Q12.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45648
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Enhancing Farm Profitability through Portfolio Analysis: The Case of Spatial Rice Variety Selection AgEcon
Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Barkely, Andrew; Watkins, Brad; Hignight, Jeffrey A..
This study applies portfolio theory to rice varietal selection decisions to find profit maximizing and risk minimizing outcomes. Results based on data from six counties in the Arkansas Delta for the period 1999–2006 suggest that sowing a portfolio of rice varieties could have increased profits from 3 to 26% (depending on the location) for rice producers in the Arkansas Delta. The major implication of this research is that data and statistical tools are available for rice producers to improve the choice of rice varieties to plant each year in specific locations. Specifically, there are large potential gains from combining varieties that are characterized by inverse yield responses to growing conditions such as drought, pest infestation, or the presence of a...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Optimal variety selection; Portfolio analysis; Rice; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; G11; Q15; Q12.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56650
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