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AGRICULTURAL PRICE VOLATILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: The Impact of Multiple Objectives on Commodity Prices AgEcon
Fuss, Sabine; Havlik, Petr; Szolgayova, Jana; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin.
Agricultural price volatility has moved to the forefront of research efforts and political discussion, where much work is already being undertaken with respect to the impact of fluctuations in input prices (e.g. fertilizer, feed and energy). In this paper we also want to take into account the impact of climate change on prices via increased volatility in crop yields. In addition, we analyze the impact of having multiple objectives competing for the land on which crops are grown. In particular, we want to address the concerns that have been voiced about biofuel targets and calls for prioritization of food security.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Energy; Food security; Food price volatility; Optimization under uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18; Q28; C61; D81.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122539
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Large-Scale Modelling of Global Food Security and Adaptation under Crop Yield Uncertainty AgEcon
Fuss, Sabine; Havlik, Petr; Szolgayova, Jana; Schmid, Erwin; Obersteiner, Michael.
Concerns about future food security in the face of volatile and potentially lower yields due to climate change have been at the heart of recent discussions on adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. While there are a variety of studies trying to quantify the impact of climate change on yields, some of that literature also acknowledges the fact that these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty. The question arises how such uncertainty will affect decision-making if ensuring food security is an explicit objective. Also, it will be important to establish, which options for adaptation are most promising in the face of volatile yields. The analysis is carried out using a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM)...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food security; Food price volatility; Optimization under uncertainty; Adaptation; Land use change; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114347
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