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BIODIESEL AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR PETROLEUM DIESEL IN A STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENT AgEcon
Tareen, Irfan Y.; Wetzstein, Michael E.; Duffield, James A..
The objective of the research presented in this paper is the development of a stochastic adoption threshold. The option pricing approach for modeling investment under uncertainty is extended for the case of comparing two stochastic input prices associated with inputs that are perfect substitutes in a production process. Based on this methodology, a threshold decision rule influenced by the drift and volatility of these two input prices is developed. Theoretical results established an empirical link for measuring the tradeoff of a relatively more expensive input (biodiesel) with lower price drift and volatility compared with a lower but more volatile priced input (petroleum diesel).
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Option pricing; Production; Renewable fuels; Technology adoption under uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15505
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Term Structure of Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Markets - Evidence from Option Data AgEcon
Koekebakker, Steen; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time and time to maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seasonal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices on wheat futures shows that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature. A numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option valuation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Option pricing; Futures; Term structure of volatility; Jump-diffusion; Agricultural markets; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24874
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Infrequent Shocks and Rating Revenue Insurance: A Contingent Claims Approach AgEcon
Richards, Timothy J.; Manfredo, Mark R..
Revenue insurance represents an important new risk management tool for agricultural producers. While there are many farm-level products, Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) is an area-based alternative. Insurers set premium rates for GRIP on the assumption of a continuous revenue distribution, but discrete events may cause the actual value of insurance to differ by a significant amount. This study develops a contingent claims approach to determining the error inherent in ignoring these infrequent events in rating GRIP insurance. An empirical example from the California grape industry demonstrates the significance of this error and suggests an alternative method of determining revenue insurance premiums.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Black-Scholes; Contingent claim; Grapes; Insurance; Jump-diffusion; Option pricing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31094
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INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF OPTION PRICING BY USING IMPLIED PARAMETERS RELATED TO HIGHER MOMENTS AgEcon
Ji, Dasheng; Brorsen, B. Wade.
The inaccuracy of the Black-Scholes formula arises from two aspects: the formula is for European options while most real option contracts are American; the formula is based on the assumption that underlying asset prices follow a lognormal distribution while in the real world asset prices cannot be described well by a lognormal distribution. We develop an American option pricing model that allows non-normality. The theoretical basis of the model is Gaussian quadrature and dynamic programming. The usual binomial and trinomial models are special cases. We use the Jarrow-Rudd formula and the relaxed binomial and trinomial tree models to imply the parameters related to the higher moments. The results demonstrate that using implied parameters related to the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Option pricing; Volatility smile; Edgeworth series; Gaussian Quadrature; Relaxed binomial and trinomial tree models; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18945
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Zur Bewertung von Wetterderivaten als innovative Risikomanagementinstrumente in der Landwirtschaft AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Xu, Wei.
The importance of weather as a production factor in agriculture is well established long time and a significant portion of yield fluctuations is caused by weather risks. Traditionally, farmers have tried to hedge against unfavorable weather using insurance, such as crop insurance. In recent years a new class of instruments, so called weather derivatives, have emerged. They allows to reduce weather based risks as well. Weather derivatives are financial market products such as forwards, futures, options and swaps, that have a weather component such as temperature or rainfall. Although weather derivatives have some advantages compared to traditional insurance, their trading volume is still rather small. One reason (among others) for why potential users...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Option pricing; Actuarial methods; Financial methods; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97216
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