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Valuing the Option to Switch to Organic Farming: An Application to U.S. Corn and Soybeans AgEcon
Wossink, Ada; Kuminoff, Nicolai V..
Based on option value theory, we develop a theoretical model to assess the dollar compensation required for the conversion to organic farming. Our empirical model is a switching regression model with two regimes and we use county level data on organic and conventional corn and soybean production in the U.S. for the application. Assuming an interest rate of 10 percent, a conventional corn-soybean grower would need to receive a one-time payment of $315 per acre to compensate for the conversion cost and an additional $1,088 per acre to cover the long run higher production and market risks. The sum of these two values equals an annual payment of $228 per acre for a 10 year contact. The results are discussed in the context of the recently introduced...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Option theory; Organic farming; Direct payments; Switching regression; Conservation Security Program; Crop Production/Industries; D81; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24716
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THE FAILURE OF MARKETABLE PERMIT SYSTEMS AND UNCERTAINTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: A SWITCHING REGIME MODEL APPLIED TO THE DUTCH PHOSPHATE QUOTA PROGRAM AgEcon
Wossink, Ada.
A well-known feature of pollution control with tradable quota rights is that the benefits to ownership will capitalize into prices of the quota. Quota present a unique opportunity to examine the effect of risks introduced by governmental programs because all the return to quota is dependent upon these programs. The uncertainty of future regulatory action results from the probability that the stream of incomes could be reduced (portfolio risk) by policy variation or stopped (default risk) by a substantial switch or shock in policy regime. Eliminating the quota program is the extreme case of default risk, as it would terminate the quota benefits. The paper concentrates on the paradox that environmental regulation can provoke economic and environmental...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Switching regime; Option theory; Policy risk; Asset fixity; Phosphate quota; Pork production.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21792
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