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SOUTHERN FARMERS' EXPOSURE TO INCOME RISK UNDER THE 1996 FARM BILL AgEcon
Knutson, Ronald D.; Smith, Edward G.; Anderson, David P.; Richardson, James W..
This paper investigates the farm-level impacts of the 1996 farm bill on the South. Focus group perceptions of risk sources, observed acreage changes, and the farm-level impact of increased price risk are evaluated. Focus group respondents ranked price and yield as the two most important sources of risk, and diversification was ranked highly as a risk-management tool. Limited data suggest that acreage shifts among crops are occurring in the South, presumably aided by the 1996 farm bill. Higher probabilities of cash flow deficits are estimated for cotton and rice relative to feedgrain, wheat, and oilseed operations.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Acreage shifts; Income risk; Policy risk; Risk perception; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15101
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Explaining Variations in the Price of Dairy Quota: Flow Returns, Liquidity, Quota Characteristics, and Policy Risk AgEcon
Wilson, Norbert L.W.; Sumner, Daniel A..
An econometric model based on the net present value model is used to examine factors that drive the variation of California dairy quota values over a 29-year period. The results suggest the price of quota is based on expected returns, variations in quota owner liquidity, and the risk of policy default. The dominant influence on the variation of the quota price was the historical variation in monthly flow of net benefits from owning quota. This analysis confirms that the rate of return to quota rises in periods of policy uncertainty.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Adaptive expectations; Capitalization of policy; Dairy policy; Policy risk; Quota; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31145
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THE FAILURE OF MARKETABLE PERMIT SYSTEMS AND UNCERTAINTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: A SWITCHING REGIME MODEL APPLIED TO THE DUTCH PHOSPHATE QUOTA PROGRAM AgEcon
Wossink, Ada.
A well-known feature of pollution control with tradable quota rights is that the benefits to ownership will capitalize into prices of the quota. Quota present a unique opportunity to examine the effect of risks introduced by governmental programs because all the return to quota is dependent upon these programs. The uncertainty of future regulatory action results from the probability that the stream of incomes could be reduced (portfolio risk) by policy variation or stopped (default risk) by a substantial switch or shock in policy regime. Eliminating the quota program is the extreme case of default risk, as it would terminate the quota benefits. The paper concentrates on the paradox that environmental regulation can provoke economic and environmental...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Switching regime; Option theory; Policy risk; Asset fixity; Phosphate quota; Pork production.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21792
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