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Hedge Effectiveness Forecasting AgEcon
Dahlgran, Roger A.; Ma, Xudong.
This study focuses on hedging effectiveness defined as the proportionate price risk reduction created by hedging. By mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the regression R2 in the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly computed hedging effectiveness in the hedge ratio regression will also generally overstate the amount of risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (c) the overstatement in (b) declines as the sample size increases, (d) application of estimated hedge ratios to non sample data results in an unbiased estimate of hedging effectiveness, (e) application of hedge ratios computed from small samples presents a significant...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Out of sample; Post sample; Hedging; Effectiveness; Forecasts; Simulation; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37604
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The Relative Performance of In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Hedging Effectiveness Indicators AgEcon
Dahlgran, Roger A..
Hedging effectiveness is the proportion of price risk removed through hedging. Empirical hedging studies typically estimate a set of risk minimizing hedge ratios, estimate the hedging effectiveness statistic, apply the estimated hedge ratios to a second group of data, and examine the robustness of the hedging strategy by comparing the hedging effectiveness for this "out-of-sample" period to the "in-sample" period. This study focuses on the statistical properties of the in-sample and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness estimators. Through mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the R2 for the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Out-of-sample; Post sample; Hedging; Effectiveness; Forecasts; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53042
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