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| Ray, Daryll E.; Richardson, James W.; Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la; Tiller, Kelly. |
| Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998-2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986-96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: POLYSYS model; Price variability; Stochastic simulation; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15100 |
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| Batz, Michael B.; Albers, Heidi J.; Avalos-Sartorio, Beatriz; Blackman, Allen. |
| Shade-grown coffee provides a livelihood to many farmers, protects biodiversity, and creates environmental services. Many shade-coffee farmers have abandoned production in recent years, however, in response to declines in international coffee prices. This paper builds a farmer decision model under price uncertainty and uses simulation analysis of that model to examine the likely impact of various policies on abandonment of shade-coffee plantations. Using information from coastal Oaxaca, Mexico, this paper examines the role of various constraints in abandonment decisions, reveals the importance of the timing of policies, and characterizes the current situation in the study region. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Coffee farming; Decision analysis; Numerical modeling; Monte Carlo; Price variability; Crop Production/Industries; O13; Q17; Q12; Q23; Q24. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10511 |
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| Browne, Natalie; Kingwell, Ross S.; Behrendt, Ralph; Eckard, Richard. |
| Dryland farming is commonplace in Australia so the profitability of dryland farms often depends on the amount and timing of rainfall. With drier weather conditions featuring in climate change projections for southern Australia, it is important to understand the relationships between rainfall, commodity prices and farm profitability. Using correlated farm commodity and input prices from the past nine years, farm profitability was calculated for a range of farm types in southwest Victoria under low, average and high rainfall scenarios. Fourteen representative farms were examined that included production of Merino fine wool, prime lamb, beef cattle, milk, wheat and canola. This paper compares and contrasts the spread of profitability of these farms against... |
| Tipo: Working Paper |
Palavras-chave: Dryland farming; Farm enterprises; Climate change; Price variability; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124249 |
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| Johnson, D. Gale. |
| The increase in world grain production in the past half-century was unparalleled in the history of the world. In that same period, the absolute increase in the world's population exceeded that of all previous history--it more than doubled. The supply of grain more than kept up with the rapid growth of demand--the per capita supply of calories in developing countries increased by 27 percent between the early 1960s and the early 1990s while the real price of grain in international markets declined by at least a third. The expansion of grain production since 1960 has been largely achieved through higher yields--the substitution of other inputs for land. Consequently the roles of land and the diminishing returns to land have been significantly attenuated by... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: World grain; Comparative advantage; Diminishing returns; Price variability; International Relations/Trade; F1. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29177 |
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