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| Registros recuperados: 1.657 | |
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| Gebrezgabher, Solomie A.; Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M.. |
| By 2020, Dutch dairy chains envisage to be self-sufficient with regard to energy used by dairy farms and dairy processors. This would require dairy farms to produce 25 PJ per year, possibly by a combination of wind, solar and biogas. Current analyses focus on biogas. To evaluate the project’s feasibility we estimated the expected technical and financial performance of 4 types of business models, i.e. “CHP-farm”, “CHP-large”, “green gas” and “central upgrading”. Data stem among others from 23 biogas plants in the Netherlands. Anticipating that CHP-models and green gas models occur with a likelihood of 40% and 60% respectively, the total number of biogas plants at dairy farms would amount to 463. There would however be an expected deficit of Euro 157 million... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Green electricity; Green gas; Empirical data; Technical performance; Financial performance; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59116 |
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| Byerlee, Derek R.; Anderson, Jock R.. |
| A model is developed from decision theory for evaluating probabilistic information, especially for decision makers who are risk averse. The value of information to such a decision maker is disaggregated into mean and variance effects. It is shown that the degree of risk aversion of the decision maker may have important effects on the value attached to the information; however, there is not necessarily a positive correlation between risk aversion and the value of information, since the decision to acquire new information is itself often a risky decision. The concepts and procedures are illustrated by application to a fodder conservation decision with rainfall forecast information. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1982 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12524 |
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| Wilson, James D.. |
| How "default options" should be used in health risk assessment divides the risk analysis profession. Some argue that these should be "hard": set by policy, generally biased to be "health protective" and requiring a substantial body of evidence to replace by decision-specific alternatives. Others argue that they should be science-based, identified by consensus of the professional community, replaced by whatever decision-specific information may be available to the analyst. This paper shows that both positions have validity, and that both are incomplete. Each kind of construct has a useful role to play, but in different kinds of decisions. Because the two are different, we suggest giving them different names, "default option" being assigned to the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Risk; Regulation; Decision making; Default options; EPA; FDA; Science; Policy; Public participation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10712 |
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| Fournier, Valerie; Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.; Eaves, James. |
| Invasive insect species cause billions of dollars of direct and indirect damage to U.S. crops each year. The market for insuring insect damage is, however, far from complete. The objective of this study is to design and value insect derivatives, or "bug options," which would offer growers a market-based means for transferring risk of pest damage to speculators or others who may profit from higher insect populations. A bug option valuation model is developed and applied to Bemesia tabaci infestation in cotton. The results show that insect derivatives may become important risk management tools for a wide range of growers. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19553 |
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| Alberini, Anna; Chiabai, Aline. |
| We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late Spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (a) money v. future risk reductions and (b) money v. money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 2% in (a) and 8.7% in (b). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money v. risk tradeoffs is in line with estimates from studies in the US and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12209 |
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| Swinnen, Johan F.M.; Vercammen, James. |
| The relationship between price uncertainty and specific investment is examined in a dynamic model that integrates the theories of real options and investment holdup. Because of weak contract enforcement, bilateral firms cannot use a contract to govern their bilateral investment and exchange relationship. These firms instead rely on an implicit self-enforcing agreement, and they reduce the investment distortion by negotiating an ex ante transfer (i.e., the investment expense of one firm is partially paid for by the other firm). In the absence of uncertainty, the ex ante transfer ensures that investment hold-up is fully eliminated. Our main result is that uncertainty introduces an inefficiency into the ex ante transfer bargaining game, which in turn... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21044 |
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| Hanson, Steven D.; Robison, Lindon J.. |
| Implicit in most applications of the expected utility (EU) model is the assumption that only the decision maker's own income matters. Moreover, studies that estimate risk preferences typically measure how individuals respond to changes in the level and likelihood of having their own income altered (Young). The focus on own income in the EU model is consistent with the assumption most often applied in the neoclassical economic paradigm; namely, that the identity of participants in an economic exchange does not affect the outcome (Telser and Higinbotham). |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11533 |
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| Manos, Basil D.; Ciani, Adriano; Bournaris, Thomas; Vassiliadou, I.; Papathanasiou, J.. |
| This paper presents the results of a research concerning the type, category and fields of applications of Decision Support Systems (DSS) and their contribution to decision-making in agriculture, mainly in the fields of planning and management of farms, farm regions and agricultural resources. More specifically, the paper includes a taxonomy survey that has been based on an analysis of all published works on applications of DSS from 1987 to 2001, as well as a categorized presentation of these applications. The relevant classification of DSS is made by treating subject (theoretical DSS or applicative), the source of publication (proceedings, scientific journal or dissertation), the type of DSS (Decision Support System, Expert System or Knowledge Based DSS),... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26406 |
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| Halter, A.N.; Mason, Robert. |
| A practical technique for estimating decision-makers utility functions by survey or group methods is explained and illustrated. Results from a survey of 44 Oregon farmers are reported. Risk attitudes of respondents are related to farm and decision-maker characteristics. Regression analysis found age, education, and percentage of land ownership, either separately or jointly, to be statistically significant variables related to risk attitude. Risk attitudes measured from the estimated utility functions were found to be uniformly distributed across risk aversion, neutral and preference. Even though further empirical work is needed, it appears that the distribution of risk attitude among the human population cannot be predicted from a single variable. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1978 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32548 |
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| Quiggin, John C.. |
| Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1981 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22866 |
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| Registros recuperados: 1.657 | |
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