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Registros recuperados: 41
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Risk Preferences Estimation for Small Raspberry Producers in the Bío-Bío Region, Chile Chilean J. Agric. Res.
Toledo T,Roger; Engler P,Alejandra.
Decisions are strongly influenced by risk and risk preferences of decision makers; however, in Chile there are few studies in the agricultural sector focused on this topic. The present paper analyzes the risk preferences of small producers of raspberries (Rubus idaeus L.) and the production function associated with their production system in the Bio-Bio Region of Chile. Under a mean-variance approach, the estimation procedure uses a flexible utility function to incorporate a variety of risk preference alternatives. Three different estimation procedures were used: Least Squares Estimation, Seemingly Unrelated Regression and Full Information Maximum Likelihood, which revealed the same conclusions. Results showed that small farmers are risk averse (γ...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Risk aversion; Mean-variance utility function; Production function.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-58392008000200007
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Coberturas óptimas en mercado de futuros bajo riego de precios y de rendimiento Colegio de Postgraduados
Guízar Mateos, Isaí.
En México, en la última década, cada vez ha sido mayor el uso de contratos en el mercado de futuros para administrar el riesgo en la actividad agrícola y en esto ha influido el impulso de programas gubernamentales. Este trabajo presenta la metodología y el cálculo de una cobertura para productores de maíz en Jalisco, México en el mercado de futuros que hace máxima su función de utilidad esperada, utilizando un modelo de media-varianza. El modelo asume que la función de utilidad está conformada por el ingreso esperado y la varianza del ingreso; se considera además que el precio futuro, el precio de contado y el rendimiento representan fuentes de riesgo para el productor. Las medias de estas variables son estimadas condicionadas a la información...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Utilidad esperada; Coberturas óptimas; Aversión al riesgo; Mercado de futuros; Maestría; Economía; Expected utility; Optimal hedging; Risk aversion; Future market.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1471
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EFFECT OF RISK AVERSION ON FEEDER CATTLE PRICES AgEcon
Lee, Jung-Hee; Brorsen, B. Wade.
This paper determines the effects of cattle feeders' risk aversion on feeder cattle prices using pen data of Kansas feedlots. Higher profit risk results in lower feeder cattle prices. The elasticity of feeder cattle price with respect to profit risk was small (-0.013). The risk elasticity estimated here is similar to risk elasticities in previous studies and thus, the use of pen-level data does not seem to add much to the study of risk.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Feedlot pen data; Price expectations; Hedonic price; Price risk; Risk aversion; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15168
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Cow-Calf Producer Risk Preference Impacts on Retained Ownership Strategies AgEcon
Pope, Kelsey Frasier; Schroeder, Ted C.; Langemeier, Michael R.; Herbel, Kevin L..
Considerable efforts have been made to provide cow-calf producers with information to help them make informed decisions about adding value to calves. Despite demonstrated market incentives to retain calves, many producers still sell right after weaning. We postulate this observed behavior is related to producer risk aversion. Our study concludes risk aversion is an important factor affecting calf retention as the most risk-averse producers have more than a 60% probability of selling calves at weaning and the most risk tolerant have less than a 20% probability of selling at weaning.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cow-calf producers; Ordered probit; Retained ownership; Risk aversion; Farm Management; Marketing; Q13; C25; D18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117953
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NATURAL HAZARDS AND RISK AVERSION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM LATIN AMERICA AgEcon
van den Berg, Marrit; Fort, Ricardo; Burger, Kees.
We use experimental and survey data from two natural-hazard prone countries in Latin America to test the hypothesis that natural hazards affect risk aversion. We use two methods to measure risk aversion: simple questions on the willingness to pay for a hypothetical lottery and more complicated experiments involving real pay-offs. We find that whereas the experiments provide reasonable estimates of risk aversion, the hypothetical questions result in unrealistic distributions of preferences. The experimental results strongly support the hypothesis that experiencing natural shocks makes people more risk averse, not only in the short run but also in the medium and long run.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Latin America; Nicaragua; Peru; Risk aversion; Natural hazards; Experiments; Environmental Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51394
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Risk aversion and sustainable maize production in Nigeria: Some challenges and prospects for agricultural and economic development AgEcon
Olarinde, Luke O.; Manyong, Victor M..
This paper determines the degree or extent of farmer’s risk aversion that affects sustainable maize production in Northern Nigeria. Using a ridge regression analysis, a measure of risk aversion was derived for each individual farmer in a model of safety-first behaviour from a cross-sectional survey of 350 maize producers in northern Nigeria. The distribution of the degree of risk aversion shows a high skewness towards the risk averters (high risk farmers) and centered around 1.20, and standard deviation of 0.37. This distribution is then explained by a set of specific variables that characterize the farmers’ behaviour in the study area using a Tobit model. Susceptibility to risk was found to be highly premised on the socioeconomic factors (e.g. age of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Maize; Nigeria; Risk aversion; Tobit model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52080
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ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCAB WITH ALTERNATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: THE CASE OF CROP QUALITY INSURANCE IN BARLEY AgEcon
Nganje, William E.; Tiapo, Napoleon M.; Wilson, William W..
Managing quality risks, especially grain quality, has been a challenge facing farmers, grain merchandisers, and policymakers for many years. With the advent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), food safety, and identity preservation, this is even more challenging today. In this paper, an equilibrium crop insurance model was developed and used to analyze the impact of quality risks on equilibrium coverage levels and risk premiums that suppliers of insurance and barley producers would be willing to provide when yield and revenue insurance instruments explicitly incorporate quality risks. The asking price concept and sensitivity analysis were used to evaluate farmers' behavior after they purchase crop quality insurance and to provide guidance and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Equilibrium coverage levels; Fusarium Head Blight; Premium rates; Quality risks; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23641
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Risk and Aversion in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change AgEcon
Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate change; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitution; Recursive utility; Dynamic programming; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q00; D90; C63.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90935
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INCORPORATING RISK PREFERENCES INTO REAL OPTIONS MODELS AgEcon
Isik, Murat.
This paper develops a framework to link the expected utility analysis to real options models in order to capture the joint effects of risk aversion and irreversibility associated with real investments. It aims at modifying the theory of investment under uncertainty by incorporating decision makers' risk preferences and allows explicitly analyzing the impacts of risk aversion, uncertainty and irreversibility on decisions such as investment and resource allocations. It addresses the shortcomings of the commonly used expected utility and investment under uncertainty models be generalizing the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk-averse investors. We found that uncertainty, irreversibility and risk aversion are important...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Investment under uncertainty; Irreversibility; Real options; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G1.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20027
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Intertemporal risk aversion – or – wouldn’t it be nice to tell whether Robinson Crusoe is risk averse? AgEcon
Traeger, Christian P..
The paper introduces a new notion of risk aversion that is independent of the good under observation and its measure scale. The representational framework builds on a time consistent combination of additive separability on certain consumption paths and the von Neumann & Morgenstern (1944) assumptions. In the one-commodity special case, the new notion of risk aversion closely relates to a disentanglement of standard risk aversion and intertemporal substitutability.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Expected utility; Recursive utility; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitutability; Certainty additivity; Temporal lotteries; Gauge-freedom; Intertemporal risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90421
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An attempt to modelling revenue insurance schemes at the farm level by means of Positive Mathematical Programming AgEcon
Severini, Simone; Cortignani, Raffaele.
Farmers face increasing income uncertainty and the debate is growing on the role of insurance schemes and of public support in this field. This paper applies a PMP modelling approach that takes into explicit consideration risk aversion behaviour to test its applicability to evaluating the potential impact of insurance schemes. This is done by introducing a revenue insurance scheme into a model developed on a small group of crop farms in Italy. The paper represents a preliminary assessment of the soundness of the proposed approach. It identifies some limitations that should be overcome to improve the proposed approach. Despite these limitations, it seems a useful tool to investigate the impact of insurance schemes and policy relevant parameters such as...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Insurance schemes; PMP; Farmers’ behaviour; Risk aversion; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; C61; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99431
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Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion AgEcon
Jordaan, Henry; Grove, Bennie.
Risk aversion is the primary reason for farmers to use forward pricing methods to hedge against price risk. Previous international research on farmers’ forward pricing behaviour found inconsistent results with respect to the relationship between risk aversion and the use of forward pricing methods. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used in this research to investigate the relationship between the proportion of maize Vaalharts maize producers are willing to forward price and risk aversion. The quantity decision is modelled conditional on the adoption decision to ensure that the modelling procedure does not force the same variables to influence the two decisions in the same way. Regression results showed that more risk averse farmers are forward...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Forward pricing; Risk aversion; Farm characteristics; Linear regression; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5970
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Climate change impacts on crop risks and agricultural production in Finland AgEcon
Lehtonen, Heikki; Kujala, Sanna.
Climate Change is expected to improve crop production conditions significantly in northern Europe. In some studies a significant increase in agricultural production is expected in northern Europe while drought is becoming gradually more severe in Southern Europe and France due to climate change. Our analysis provides one of the first steps in evaluating the possible scale of changes in agricultural production and use of farm land in Finland, so far one of the least favoured agricultural areas in Europe. Drought in early summer and low temperature sum during growing period are currently the main growth limiting factors in Finland. Even though the early part of the growing period is likely to be dry also in the future, both mean and variance of crop yields...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate change; Agriculture; Risk aversion; Mean-variance analysis; Sector models; Optimization; Crop production; Finland; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9259
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Risk Preferences and Demand for Insurance in Peru: A Field Experiment AgEcon
Galarza, Francisco B.; Carter, Michael R..
This paper reports the results of behavioral economic experiments conducted in Peru to examine the relationship amongst risk preferences, loan take-up, and insurance purchase decisions. This area-based yield insurance can help reduce people's vulnerability to large scale covariate shocks, and can also lower the loan default probability under extreme negative covariate shocks. In a context of collateralized formal credit markets, we provide suggestive evidence that insurance may help reduce the fear of losing collateral that prevents potential borrowers from taking loans. Framing these experiments to recreate a real life situation, we started with a Baseline Game where subjects had to choose between a fallback production project and an uninsured loan. We...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Area-yield insurance; Credit; Covariate risk; Idiosyncratic risk; Risk aversion; Experimental economics; Peru; Risk and Uncertainty; C93; D81.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61871
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Experimental Evidence of Risk Aversion in Consumer Markets: The Case of Beef Tenderness AgEcon
Alfnes, Frode; Rickertsen, Kyrre; Ueland, Oydis.
Consistency of quality is important for brand loyalty and market share in consumer markets. Among consumers of beef, tenderness is the primary quality attribute. We use an experimental auction market to investigate how inconsistency in tenderness affects consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for beef. We find that both the level and the spread of tenderness affect consumers’ WTP for beef. Categorization the beef into various classes of tenderness increased the total value of the beef by 8%, which suggests that improved tenderness labeling may be a profitable strategy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Beef tenderness; Consumer demand; Experimental auction; Marketing; Risk aversion; Consumer/Household Economics; C91; D12; D8; Q13.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24553
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Optimal On-Farm Grain Storage by Risk-Averse Farmers AgEcon
Lai, Jing-Yi; Myers, Robert J.; Hanson, Steven D..
Most previous research on post-harvest grain storage by farmers has assumed risk-neutral behavior and/or made restrictive assumptions about underlying price probability distributions. In this study, we solve the optimal on-farm storage problem for a risk-averse farmer under more general assumptions about underlying price distributions. The resulting model is applied to Michigan corn farmers and findings show, contrary to the "sell all or nothing" risk-neutral rule, risk-averse farmers will spread sales out over the storage season. As farmers become more risk averse, the optimal strategy is to sell more grain at harvest and spread sales over the storage season, even though this practice reduces expected return. This result is more consistent with observed...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Grain storage; Risk aversion; Stochastic dynamic programming; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31063
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Hidden action, risk aversion and variable fines in agri-environmental schemes AgEcon
Ozanne, Adam; White, Benedict.
This note analyses the design of agri-environmental schemes for risk-averse producers whose input usage is only observable by costly monitoring. The scheme penalises producers in proportion to input use in excess of a quota. A striking result is that if the scheme is designed in such a way that producers always comply with the quota, risk aversion is not relevant in determining the level of input use.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental policy; Monitoring; Risk aversion; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118539
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Weighted Goal Programming and Penalty Functions: Whole-farm Planning Approach Under Risk AgEcon
Zgajnar, Jaka; Kavcic, Stane.
The paper presents multiple criteria approach to deal with risk in farmer’s decisions. Decision making process is organised in a framework of spreadsheet tool. It is supported by deterministic and stochastic mathematical programming techniques applying optimisation concept. Decision making process is conceptually divided into seven autonomous modules that are mutually linked up. Beside the common maximisation of expected income through linear programming it enables also reconstruction of current production practice. Income risk modelling is based on portfolio theory resting on expected value, variance (E,V) paradigm. Modules dealing with risk are therefore supported with quadratic and constrained quadratic programming. Non-parametric approach is utilised...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Goal programming; Risk modelling; Risk aversion; Production planning; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118033
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The Role of Trust and Risk Aversion in Farmers' Used Machinery Transactions AgEcon
Roe, Brian E.; Batte, Marvin T.; Diekmann, Florian.
Results of a nationally representative survey of US farmers link previously validated survey measures of risk aversion and interpersonal trust to farmers’ intended use of online venues for transacting used equipment. Other factors affecting online purchase propensity includes the quality of farmers’ relationships with local equipment dealerships. Understanding the factors that impact farmers’ use of internet market venues is crucial as rural internet penetration deepens, farm equipment needs grow more specialized and local offline markets thin. These results may also help explain past observations of severe discounting of used farm equipment sold in online venues.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Internet; Agricultural marketing; Durable inputs; Survey; Risk aversion; Trust; Agribusiness; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; D8; L15; L64; Q12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60972
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How can allocative inefficiency reveal risk preference? An empirical investigation on French wheat farms AgEcon
Blancard, Stephane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Crainich, D.; Leleu, Herve.
We focus on a simple framework on wheat producer behaviour in a context of price output uncertainty. More precisely, we establish a relationship between ex post output price level and allocative inefficiency that allows to characterize farmers’ risk preferences. Given this analysis, the connection between risk aversion and other socioeconomic variables (such as degree of output specialisation, total asset, debts, farmer’s age…) can furthermore empirically be explored. This relationship is empirically tested on an unbalanced panel including about 650 wheat producers located in the French Department of Meuse over 1992- 2003.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Producer behaviour; Allocative inefficiency; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44208
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