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Modeling process asymmetries with Laplace moving average ArchiMer
Raillard, Nicolas; Prevosto, Marc; Ailliot, Pierre.
Many records in environmental science exhibit asymmetries: for example in shallow water and with variable bathymetry, the sea wave time series shows front–back asymmetries and different shapes for crests and troughs. In such situation, numerical models are available but their computational cost and complexity are high. A stochastic process aimed at modeling such asymmetries has recently been proposed, the Laplace moving average process, which consists in applying a linear filter on a non-Gaussian noise built using the generalized Laplace distribution. The objective is to propose a new non-parametric estimator for the kernel involved in the definition of this process. Results based on a comprehensive numerical study will be shown in order to evaluate the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Laplace moving average; Non-linear time series; FIR estimation; Splines; High-order spectrum; Asymmetries.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00201/31189/29588.pdf
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The Proportion of the Seasonal Period as a Season Index in Weekly Agricultural Data AgEcon
Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria; Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan.
In this paper a seasonal model is proposed to deal with weekly agricultural seasonal patterns in which neither the length of the seasonal period nor the magnitude of the seasonal effects remain the same over time. To model this heterogeneous seasonal behaviour, the seasonal effect at a season is defined as a function of the proportion of the length of the seasonal period elapsed up to this season, and the seasonal pattern is modelled by means of evolving splines. The methodology is illustrated for weekly Canary tomato prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weekly data; Heterogeneous seasonal patterns; Splines; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C22; Q17.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49956
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Canary Island Tomato Exports: A Structural Analysis of Seasonality AgEcon
Rodriguez, Gloria Martin; Hernandez, Jose Juan Caceres.
The European tomato market is characterised by a constant process of dynamic adjustment toward the equilibrium. Furthermore, Canary tomato exports cause a high seasonal impact on market prices in the winter period. In these circumstances, an adequate distribution of shipments throughout the campaign could contribute to maximize producers' profits. The goal of this paper is to analyse the seasonal pattern of Canary tomato exports to Europe throughout the first fourteen campaigns following Spanish integration into the European Union. These export levels show some degree of instability, clearly related to the changes in the European Union trade rules, and there is a long period, the summer, without exports. Moreover, we have opted by using weekly data. These...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Canary tomato exports; Weekly data; Seasonality; Structural models; Splines; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24901
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