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| Gomez, Miguel I.; Nunez, Hector M.; Onal, Hayri. |
| The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Asian Soybean Rust; Stochastic Models; Dynamic Models; Crop Production/Industries; C61; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49595 |
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| Gomez, Miguel I.; Nunez, Hector M.; Onal, Hayri. |
| The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output,... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Asian Soybean Rust; Stochastic Models; Dynamic Models; Agribusiness; Marketing; C61; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51177 |
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