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| Sassi, Maria. |
| The paper simulates the possible sorghum price change and the related probability of occurrence under different rainfall scenarios and in a context of price uncertainty on international markets. The empirical investigation is based on the stochastic approach. Results underline an expected increase in sorghum price under the effect of the high level of uncertainty in precipitation and in international market price; the most intense likely change produced by the international market price of sorghum uncertainty; the need to overcome the agricultural view in policy making in order to include a market perspective. |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Drought; Food prices; Stochastic approach; Sudan; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q18; Q54. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124111 |
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| Sassi, Maria; Cardaci, Alberto. |
| The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former provides the likely changes in sorghum, millet and wheat productivity and their probability of occurrence according to rainfall predictions based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the shocks simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the grater negative effect... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Food security; Stochastic approach; Cge; Sudan; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; Q18; Q54. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124110 |
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