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| Bengston, David N; USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station; dbengston@fs.fed.us; Kubik, George H; Anticipatory Futures Group, LLC; University of Minnesota, Innovation Studies; kubik005@umn.edu; Bishop, Peter C; Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight, Dept. of Futures Studies, The University of Houston; pbishop@uh.edu. |
| The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does not exist. We propose that futures research, a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 years, offers an underused but fruitful set of approaches to address this important challenge. A few futures research methods—notably several forms of scenario analysis—have been applied to environmental issues and problems in recent years. But... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Environmental futures; Futures research; Scenarios; Strategic foresight. |
| Ano: 2012 |
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| Local communities collectively managing common pool resources can play an important role in sustainable management, but they often lack the skills and context-specific tools required for such management. The complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), the need for management capacities, and communities’ limited empowerment and participation skills present challenges for community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. We analyzed the applicability of prospective structural analysis (PSA), a strategic foresight tool, to support decision making and to foster sustainable management and capacity building in CBNRM contexts and the modifications necessary to use the tool in such contexts. By testing PSA in three SES in Colombia,... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Argentina; Colombia; Latin America; Local knowledge; Mexico; Participatory techniques; Social-ecological systems; Strategic foresight. |
| Ano: 2016 |
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| ARBOUR, N.; LOPES, M. A.; PALAZZO, A.; SHUKLA-JONES, A.; TULLY, C.; TRUDEL, J-L.. |
| Abstract: Policymakers and stakeholders across academia, industry, and governments internationally are scrambling to address systemic impacts, using every tool to inform decisions made now for the future; among them, the use of strategic foresight ? imagining what could be alongside what should be. |
| Tipo: Artigo na mídia |
Palavras-chave: Strategic foresight; Decision making; Innovation adoption. |
| Ano: 2020 |
URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/1138632 |
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