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| Registros recuperados: 12 | |
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| Newell, Barry; Australian National University Canberra ; barry.newell@anu.edu.au; Marsh, Debborah M; University of Technology Sydney; dmarsh@eng.uts.edu.au; Sharma, Deepak; University of Technology Sydney; Deepak.Sharma@uts.edu.au. |
| As the complexity and interconnectedness of present-day social-ecological systems become steadily more apparent, there is increasing pressure on governments, policy makers, and managers to take a systems approach to the challenges facing humanity. However, how can this be done in the face of system complexity and uncertainties? In this paper we briefly discuss practical ways that policy makers can take up the systems challenge. We focus on resilience thinking, and the use of influence diagrams, causal-loop diagrams, and system archetypes. As a case study, set in the context of the climate-energy-water nexus, we use some of these system concepts and tools to carry out an initial exploration of factors that can affect the resilience of the Australian... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Australian National Electricity Market; Climate-energy-water nexus; Resilience; System analysis; System dynamics. |
| Ano: 2011 |
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| Duer-Balkind, Marshall; Department of the Environment, Washington, DC; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; marshall@aya.yale.edu; Jacobs, Kasey R.; NOAA Coastal Management Fellow at the Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, San Juan, PR; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; kasey.jacobs@aya.yale.edu; Basurto, Xavier; Duke Marine Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC, USA; xavier.basurto@duke.edu. |
| Social-ecological resilience is an increasingly central paradigm for understanding sustainable resource management. In this study, we aimed to better understand the effect of environmental variability on the resilience of fishery systems, and the important role that social institutions and biophysical constraints play. To explore these issues, we built a dynamic model of the pen shell fishery of the indigenous Seri people in the Gulf of California, Mexico. This model included the dynamics of the two dominant species in the fishery (Atrina tuberculosa and Pinna rugosa), several institutional rules that the Seri use, and a number of ecological constraints, including key stochastic variables derived from empirical data. We found that modeling with multiple... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Artisanal fisheries; Common-pool resources; Environmental variability; Gulf of California Mexico; Multi-species; Resilience; Social-ecological systems; Stochasticity; System dynamics. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Johnson, Thomas G.; Bryden, John Marshall; Refsgaard, Karen; Alva Lizarraga, Sara. |
| The goal of the TOPMARD project is to develop a model of agriculture and rural development to better understand the agronomic, ecological, economic and social dimensions of rural regions. The resulting model, (Policy Model of Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development) was built collaboratively and hierarchically by the research teams from the 11 countries. The model features eight subsectors (Land, Agriculture, Tourism, Region, Human Resources, Non-commodities, Capital, and Quality of Life). Imbedded in the model are a complete dynamic input-output model, and an agecohort education demographic model. The model has both supply-side and demand-side drivers. Land use is the key supply-side driver. Land use, coupled with production system choices,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Multifunctionality; System dynamics; Policy; Model; Rural development; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6497 |
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| Braganca, Raissa Carvalho; Bueno, Newton Paulo. |
| The purpose of the paper was to study if the dynamics of the Brazilian cattle stocks can be better explained by systemic endogenous factors or either by exogenous changes on beef demand. The conclusion, as proposed by the theory of the cattle cycle, was that systemic factors related to the adoption of the stabilization program in 1994 were apparently more important in explaining the stagnation of the Brazilian herd since 2000. The main policy implication of this conclusion is that it seems to have a space for stabilizing de dynamics of the system through adequate public policies. The methodology used was system dynamics which allows to trace the critical feedback loops that drive de cattle cycle and to identify possible leverage points in the system,... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cattle; System dynamics; Cattle cycle; Commodities; Economic policy; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95069 |
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| Efstratoglou, Sophia; Giannakis, Elias; Psaltopoulos, Dimitrios. |
| Current considerations for the post-2013 CAP create the need for the investigation and evaluation of alternative CAP scenarios and their effects on agriculture, environment and regional development in EU rural areas. To this end, a system-dynamics model is developed and utilized to evaluate the impacts of alternative CAP scenarios in a Greek rural area (prefecture of Trikala). This particular model features four basic subsystems (agriculture, environment, regional economy and human resources) specified and analyzed through a linear programming model, a dynamic input-output model and an age-cohort demographic model, respectively. Four alternative policy scenarios are specified, dealing with possible developments on Pillars 1 and 2. Model simulations produce... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: CAP; Policy impact assessment; Rural development; System dynamics; Agricultural and Food Policy; C61; C67; Q18; R58. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99361 |
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| Rich, Karl M.; Perry, Brian D.; Kaitibie, Simeon. |
| While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: SPS; Livestock; Market access; System dynamics; Ethiopia; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q10; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53794 |
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| Rich, Karl M.. |
| Accurate assessments of the epidemiological and economic impacts of an animal disease require the incorporation of feedbacks between disease spread and production incentives. This paper motivates a new modeling framework that is sensitive to the dynamics of disease, production decisions and incentives, different livestock production systems, and their interaction through the use of an integrated system dynamics framework. Preliminary simulation results are provided to demonstrate proof-of-concept of such an approach, with additional discussion given on extensions and implications of integrated methods. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Animal disease control; Simulation modeling; System dynamics; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9701 |
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| Registros recuperados: 12 | |
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