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What Can the Poor Expect From Trade Liberalization? Opening the "Black Box" of Trade Modeling AgEcon
Bouet, Antoine.
Trade liberalization is expected to act positively on development and poverty alleviation, both of which have become a high priority of international community. This explains why numerous studies have focused on assessing the expected benefits of trade liberalization on poverty. The main empirical tool for these assessments has been the use of multi-country Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGEM). These models, however, have produced divergent results. As demonstrated by recent studies, the associated increase in world welfare from full trade liberalization ranges from 0.2% to 3.1% — results that differ by a factor of 15 to 1! The impact on poverty headcount is also very divergent as the number of people lifted out from poverty ranges from 72 million...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Trade modeling; Poverty alleviation; General equilibrium model; Assessment; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58575
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Agricultural Trade Policy Issues in the Eighties, Current Research and Long-Term Forecasting AgEcon
Domestic agricultural policy and trade policy are closely linked. Thus, research, including long-term forecasting activities, must take into account the domestic as well as international implications of trade policy issues. The seventh meeting of the Consortium on Trade Research on June 23-24, 1983, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, focused on the problems facing international agricultural trade in the eighties; current research efforts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Canada, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Secretariat; and the status, problems, and applications of long-term forecasting models.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Trade policy; Trade modeling; Long-term forecasting; Monetary policy; Exchange rates; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1983 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51440
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An Economic Analysis of Mountain Pine Beetle Impact in a Global Context AgEcon
Abbott, Brant; Stennes, Brad; van Kooten, G. Cornelis.
The economic effects of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia are simulated using a multi-region spatial price equilibrium model coupled with a stochastic dynamic updating procedure. The simulation captures expected changes in the B.C. timber supply, growth of plantation forests in the southern hemisphere and an escalating Russian log export tax. The results indicate lumber and log prices will rise in B.C., offsetting some of the economic loss to timber producers. However, on net producers in the B.C. forest industry will experience a decrease in economic surplus.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Mountain pine beetle; Spatial price equilibrium; Trade modeling; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C67; F14; F17.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37051
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Front Materials AgEcon
Front Cover, Title Page, Foreword, Contents Page
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; International trade; Macroeconomic linkages; Models; Policy modeling; Trade modeling; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1985 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50646
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