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Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market - Evidence from a Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Misra, Sukant K..
This study shows that the stochastic process that governs price fluctuations in the international fiber market has transitory and permanent components. The results also indicate structural relationships between cotton price and wool price, wool price and oil price, rayon price and cotton price, and between polyester price and cotton price.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Unobserved components; State-space; Kalman filter; Fiber prices; Cofeature; International Relations/Trade; C32; Q11.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35545
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Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L..
This study employs a structural time-series method to model and estimate U.S. cotton exports and mill use. The results show that the stochastic process governing cotton export fluctuations is transitory, while the process pertaining to mill use has transitory, seasonal, and secular origins. The estimated structural relationships after accounting for the unobserved components indicate U.S. cotton exports respond directly to higher international price relative to domestic price of cotton, while mill use responds directly to U.S. textile output price and cotton-to-polyester price ratio. Exchange rate volatility and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program have no significant effect on cotton exports.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton exports; Cotton mill use; Kalman filter; State space; Unobserved components; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57698
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Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Misra, Sukant K..
A multivariate unobserved component model was applied to identify common movements among cotton, wool, rayon, and polyester world prices. Two common stochastic trends and cycles govern the stochastic behaviors of price fluctuations in the world fiber market. These unobserved components have important implications as they can help in the design of more efficient commodity programs to smooth terms of trade shocks, especially in developing countries. The study found the effect of inventory adjustments on world cotton price is diminishing, which indicates that speculative behaviors in the world fiber market are less prevalent than previously thought.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Common factors; Fiber prices; Kalman filter; State-space; Unobserved components; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8596
Registros recuperados: 3
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