|
|
|
|
|
| Hatchett, Robert B.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Anderson, Kim B.. |
| The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last year’s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Grain; Law of One Price; Moving averages; Structural change; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61057 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Sousa, Eliane Pinheiro de; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
| This article aims at to verify the effects of the trade agreements implanted in the textile sector (Multi-fibre Agreement, Agreement on Textiles and Clothing and liberalization of the textile sector in the world trade) about the integration among the internal and external prices of the cotton of january of 1990 to february of 2009. For that, they were employees the tests for unitary root and Johansen’s co-integration; estimation and analysis of and the vector error correction model (VEC) and the exogenicity test. The results revealed that the markets brazilian and american can be considered integrated in all of the analyzed samples, indicating that variations of price of the cotton happened at a market is reviewed to the other market in the long period,... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Integration of markets; Law of One Price; Trade agreements; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56851 |
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
