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A Stochastic Multiple Players Multi-Issues Bargaining Model for the Piave River Basin AgEcon
Sgobbi, Alessandra; Carraro, Carlo.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of non-cooperative bargaining theory for the analysis of negotiations on water allocation and management. We explore the impacts of different economic incentives, a stochastic environment and varying individual preferences on players’ strategies and equilibrium outcomes through numerical simulations of a multilateral, multiple issues, non-cooperative bargaining model of water allocation in the Piave River Basin, in the North East of Italy. Players negotiate in an alternating-offer manner over the sharing of water resources (quantity and quality). Exogenous uncertainty over the size of the negotiated amount of water is introduced to capture the fact that water availability is not known with...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Non-Cooperative Game Theory; Simulation Models; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; C71; C78.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7446
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Adaptation Can Help Mitigation: An Integrated Approach to Post-2012 Climate Policy AgEcon
Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica.
The latest round of international negotiations in Copenhagen led to a set of commitments on emission reductions which are unlikely to stabilise global warming below or around 2°C. As a consequence, in the absence of additional ambitious policy measures, adaptation will be needed to address climate-related damages. What is the role of adaptation in this setting? How is it optimally allocated across regions and time? To address these questions, this paper analyses the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation expenditures in a cost-effective setting in which countries cooperate to achieve a long-term stabilisation target (550 CO2-eq). It uses an Integrated Assessment Model (AD-WITCH) that describes the relationships between different adaptation modes...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change Impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Integrated Assessment Model; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q56; Q43.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116907
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Alternative Paths toward a Low Carbon World AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Stabilization Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90948
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Banking Permits: Economic Efficiency and Distributional Effects AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
Most analyses of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms focus on the cost effectiveness of “where” flexibility (e.g. by showing that mitigation costs are lower in a global permit market than in regional markets or in permit markets confined to Annex 1 countries). Less attention has been devoted to “when” flexibility, i.e. to the benefits of allowing emission permit traders to bank their permits for future use. In the model presented in this paper, banking of carbon allowances in a global permit market is fully endogenised, i.e. agents may decide to bank permits by taking into account their present and future needs and the present and future decisions of all the other agents. It is therefore possible to identify under what conditions traders find it optimal to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Emission Trading; Banking; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6362
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Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Kyoto Protocol; International Climate Agreements; Climate Policy; Clean Development Mechanism; Environmental Economics and Policy; F5; Q01; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98094
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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies In Italy. An Economic Assessment AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra.
In this paper, the economic value of the impacts of climate change is assessed for different Italian economic sectors and regions. Sectoral and regional impacts are then aggregated to provide a macroeconomic estimate of variations in GDP induced by climate change in the next decades. Autonomous adaptation induced by changes in relative prices and in stocks of natural and economic resources is fully taken into account. The model also considers international trade effects. Results show that in Italy aggregate GDP losses induced by climate change are likely to be small. However, some economic sectors (e.g. tourism) and the alpine regions will suffer significant economic damages.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Impacts; Climate Change; Adaptation; GDP Losses; Tourism; Environmental Economics and Policy; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q43; Q5; R13.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6373
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Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo; Carraro, Carlo.
This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy-economy Modeling; Climate Policy; Developing Countries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q55; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52541
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Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage AgEcon
Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica.
It has become commonly accepted that a successful climate strategy should compound mitigation and adaptation. The accurate combination between adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change is still an open question. This paper proposes a framework that integrates mitigation, adaptation, and climate change residual damages into an optimisation model. This set-up is used to provide some insights on the welfare maximising resource allocation between mitigation and adaptation, on their optimal timing, and on their marginal contribution to reducing vulnerability to climate change. The optimal mix between three different adaptation modes (reactive adaptation, anticipatory adaptation, and investment in innovation for adaptation purposes) within...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change Impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Integrated Assessment Model; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q56; Q43.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60681
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Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus about the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement effective mitigation strategies, at least in the short-term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that some, if not all countries, will delay the adoption of effective climate policies. This delay will affect the cost of future policy measures that will be required to abate an even larger amount of emissions. What additional economic cost of mitigation measures will this delay imply? At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the global stabilisation target to be...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Delayed Action; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44219
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Delayed Participation of Developing Countries to Climate Agreements: Should Action in the EU and US be Postponed? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the cost implications for climate policy in developed countries if developing countries are unwilling to adopt measures to reduce their own GHG emissions. First, we assume that a 450 CO2 (550 CO2e) ppmv stabilisation target is to be achieved and that Non Annex1 (NA1) countries decide to delay their GHG emission reductions by 30 years. What would be the cost difference between this scenario and a case in which both developed and developing countries start reducing their emissions at the same time? Then, we look at a scenario in which the timing of developing countries’ participation is uncertain and again we compute the costs of climate policy in developed and developing countries. We find that delayed participation of NA1 countries has...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Delayed Action; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Uncertain Participation; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44220
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Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Carraro, Carlo.
In the absence of significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, many analysts project that atmospheric concentrations of species identified for control in the Kyoto protocol could exceed 1000 ppm (carbon-dioxide-equivalent) by 2100 from the current levels of about 435 ppm. This could lead to global average temperature increases of between 2.5 and 6°C by the end of the century. There are risks of even greater warming given that underlying uncertainties in emissions projections and climate response are substantial. Stabilization of GHG concentrations that would have a reasonable chance of meeting temperature targets identified in international negotiations would require significant reductions in GHG emissions below “business-as-usual” levels, and indeed from...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Emissions Pricing; Climate Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119102
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Energy and Climate Change in China AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
The paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China, presenting historical data and scenarios generated using the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with four scenarios in which Greenhouse Gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. Key insights are provided to evaluate the Chinese pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of Gross Domestic Product by 40/45 percent in 2020 contained in the Copenhagen Accord. Marginal and total abatement costs are discussed using the OECD economies as a term of comparison. Cost estimates for different emissions reduction targets are used to assess the political feasibility of the 50 percent global reduction target set by the G8 and Major Economies Forum in July 2009.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; China; Energy Efficiency; Energy and Development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q4.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101294
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How Does Climate Policy Affect Technical Change? An Analysis of the Direction and Pace of Technical Progress in a Climate-Economy Model AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Nicita, Lea.
This paper analyses whether and how a climate policy designed to stabilize greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to change the direction and pace of technical progress. The analysis is performed using an upgraded version of WITCH, a dynamic integrated regional model of the world economy. In this version, a non-energy R&D Sector, which enhances the productivity of the capital-labor aggregate, has been added to the energy R&D sector included in the original WITCH model. We find that, as a consequence of climate policy, R&D is re-directed towards energy knowledge. Nonetheless, total R&D investments decrease, due to a more than proportional contraction of non-energy R&D. Indeed, when non-energy and energy inputs are weakly...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Technical Change; Climate Policy; Stabilization Cost; R&D Investments; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50357
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Human Capital, Innovation, and Climate Policy: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital increases the productivity of labour and the complementarity between labour and energy drives its pollution-using effect (direct effect). When human capital is an essential input in the production of generic and energy dedicated knowledge, the crowding out induced by...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Innovation; Human capital; Environmental Economics and Policy; O33; O41; Q43.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122861
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Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120048
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International Energy R&D Spillovers and the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
It is widely recognized that technological change has the potential to reduce GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; International R&D Spillovers; Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8217
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Modeling Biased Technical Change. Implications for Climate Policy AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Nicita, Lea.
Climate-economy models aiming at quantifying the costs and effects of climate change impacts and policies have become important tools for climate policy decision-making. Although there are several important dimensions along which models differ, this paper focuses on a key component of climate change economics and policy, namely technical change. This paper tackles the issues of whether technical change is biased towards the energy sectors, the importance of the elasticity of substitution between factors in determining this bias and how mitigation policy is likely to affect it. The analysis is performed using the World Induced Technical Change model, WITCH. Three different versions of the model are proposed. The starting set-up includes endogenous technical...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Technical Change; Climate Policy; Stabilization Cost; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59376
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Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures. A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper provides a quantitative comparison of the main architectures for an agreement on climate policy. Possible successors to the Kyoto protocol are assessed according to four criteria: economic efficiency; environmental effectiveness; distributional implications; and their political acceptability which is measured in terms of feasibility and enforceability. The ultimate aim is to derive useful information for designing a future agreement on climate change control.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Modelling; International Agreements; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44535
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Modelling Negotiated Decision Making: a Multilateral, Multiple Issues, Non-Cooperative Bargaining Model with Uncertainty AgEcon
Sgobbi, Alessandra; Carraro, Carlo.
The relevance of bargaining to everyday life can easily be ascertained, yet the study of any bargaining process is extremely hard, involving a multiplicity of questions and complex issues. The objective of this paper is to provide new insights on some dimensions of the bargaining process – asymmetries and uncertainties in particular – by using a non-cooperative game theory approach. We develop a computational model which simulates the process of negotiation among more than two players, who bargain over the sharing of more than one pie. Through numerically simulating several multiple issues negotiation games among multiple players, we identify the main features of players’ optimal strategies and equilibrium agreements. As in most economic situations,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Non-Cooperative Game Theory; Simulation Models; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C71; C78.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8224
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Optimal Energy Investment and R&D Strategies to Stabilise Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Concentrations AgEcon
Carraro, Carlo; Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
The stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at levels expected to prevent dangerous climate change has become an important, global, long-term objective. It is therefore crucial to identify a cost-effective way to achieve this objective. In this paper we use WITCH, a hybrid climate-energy-economy model, to obtain a quantitative assessment of some cost-effective strategies that stabilise CO2 concentrations at 550 or 450 ppm. In particular, this paper analyses the energy investment and R&D policies that optimally achieve these two GHG stabilisation targets (i.e. the future optimal energy mix consistent with the stabilisation of GHG atmospheric concentrations at 550 and 450 ppm). Given that the model accounts for interdependencies and spillovers...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; Investments; Stabilisation Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7435
Registros recuperados: 25
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