SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Carriquiry, Miguel A..

Worldwide production of biodiesel is growing at a rapid pace. Arguably, the European Union (EU) is the global leader in biodiesel production, but the United States has recently expanded its production. The growth of the biodiesel industry in both regions has been fueled by a series of government-provided financial incentives. However, the timing of the growth and incentive provisions, the nature of the main incentives, and the market conditions differ across regions. This article provides a comparative analysis of the EU and U.S. biodiesel industries, highlighting market and policy aspects that are leading to a rapid but distinct growth.

Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil

Palavras-chave: Biodiesel; Biodiesel industry; Biodiesel quality; Biofuels; Energy security; Rapeseed oil; Rapeseed methyl ester; Soybean oil; Soydiesel; Ultra low sulfur diesel; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9081

Barr, Kanlaya J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Nassar, Andre Meloni; Harfuch, Leila.

The elasticity of aggregate supply is one key to understanding the degree to which policy-induced increases in demand for biofuel feedstocks or agricultural CO2 offsets will result in higher prices or expanded supply. In this paper we report land supply elasticities for the United States and Brazil estimated directly from the observed changes in cropland and estimated changes in expected returns. The resulting aggregate implied land-use elasticities with respect to price are quite inelastic in the United States and more elastic in Brazil (0.007-0.029 and 0.382-0.895, respectively). However, with pasture land included in Brazil, implied elasticities become much less inelastic (0.007-0.245).

An Exploration of Certain Aspects of CARB’s Approach to Modeling Indirect Land Use from Expanded Biodiesel Production

Palavras-chave: Acreage elasticity; Brazil; Indirect land-use change; Land-use elasticities.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58047

Babcock, Bruce A.; Carriquiry, Miguel A..

This report provides insight into four aspects of modeling indirect land use caused by expanded biofuels production. The report was motivated by the National Biodiesel Board’s interest in better understanding how the California Air Resources Board (CARB) estimated an indirect land-use factor for soybean-based biodiesel of 66 gCO2e/MJ, which is more than three times greater than the direct emissions from the fuel. Four aspects of CARB’s modeling approach were examined: (1) why CARB estimates that more U.S. forest than pasture will be converted to cropland; (2) whether CARB’s predicted land-use changes are consistent with observed U.S. land-use changes in the past decade; (3) how CARB could account for double cropping; and (4) whether CARB’s assumption that...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: CET supply function; Double cropping; Idle cropland; Indirect land use.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57160

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLOSING THE RIVER GULF GRAIN COMPANY ON LOCAL PRODUCERS OF CORN AND SOYBEANS

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Babcock, Bruce A..

Hotelling's classic model of spatial competition is used to estimate the impacts on price of the closure of one of three grain buyers on the Mississippi River in the vicinity of Scott County, Iowa. The customers of the buyer who is closing (River Gulf Grain Company) in Davenport, Iowa, are assumed to deliver their grain to a buyer in either Buffalo, Iowa, to the south or to a buyer in Clinton, Iowa, to the north. Calibration of Hotelling's framework to this situation leads to an estimated decline in grain bids of 1.5¢ per bushel for the buyer located in Clinton and by 2.5¢ per bushel for the buyer located in Buffalo. These estimates are based on an incremental transportation cost of 0.15¢ per mile between the seller's farm and the buyer. This price decline...

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Palavras-chave: Grain transportation; Local monopsony; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18370

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price while the other is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax...

CAN SPOT AND CONTRACT MARKETS CO-EXIST IN AGRICULTURE?

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48597

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Babcock, Bruce A..

New production technologies, consumers who are more discriminating, and the need for improved coordination are among the forces driving the move from spot markets to contracts. Some worry that this tendency will result in the disappearance of spot markets, or at least that they will become too thin to be of help for an efficient price discovery process. Other authors point to the reduction in welfare of independent producers resulting from contracting in oligopsonistic industries. While a large body of literature is available tackling the contract versus spot market decision, much less is known about the reasons that lead to procurement in both markets. This paper provides a simple model to study how fundamental economic factors influence the contracting...

CAN SPOT AND CONTRACT MARKETS CO-EXIST IN AGRICULTURE?

Palavras-chave: Contract markets; Contracting in agriculture; Specialty grains; Spot markets; Yield risk; Marketing.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18634

Babcock, Bruce A.; Carriquiry, Miguel A..

New production technologies, consumers who are more discriminating, and the need for improved coordination are among the forces driving the move from spot markets to contracts. Some worry that this tendency will result in the disappearance of spot markets, or at least that they will become too thin to be of help for an efficient price discovery process. Other authors point to the reduction in welfare of independent producers resulting from contracting in oligopsonistic industries. While a large body of literature is available tackling the contract versus spot market decision, much less is known about the reasons that lead to procurement in both markets. This paper provides a very simple model to study how fundamental economic factors influence the...

Costs and Benefits to Taxpayers, Consumers, and Producers from U.S. Ethanol Policies

Palavras-chave: Contracting in agriculture; Spot markets; Yield risk; Marketing.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18404

Babcock, Bruce A.; Barr, Kanlaya J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A..

The U.S. ethanol industry is lobbying hard for an extension of existing ethanol import tariffs and blenders tax credits before they expire at the end of 2010. The purpose of this study is to examine the likely consequences on the U.S. ethanol industry, corn producers, taxpayers, fuel blenders, and fuel consumers if current policy is not extended. Impacts of different ethanol policies in both 2011 and 2014 were estimated. Estimates were obtained by developing a new stochastic model that calculates market-clearing prices for U.S. ethanol, Brazilian ethanol, and U.S. corn. The model is stochastic because market-clearing prices are calculated for 5,000 random draws of corn yields and wholesale gasoline prices. Key assumptions in this study are that the...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Blenders tax credit; Brazilian ethanol; Ethanol import tariffs; U.S. ethanol policy.; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92383

Flex-Fuel Vehicle Adoption and the Dynamics of Ethanol Price: Lessons from Brazil and Implications for the United States

Du, Xiaodong; Carriquiry, Miguel A..

Poster

Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103690

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first...

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Brazil; Land use; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103798

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...

GUARANTEED TENDER BEEF: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR A DIFFERENTIATED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043

Carriquiry, Miguel A..

Replaced with revised copy September 28, 2004

Implied Objectives of U.S. Biofuel Subsidies

Palavras-chave: Beef tenderness; Guaranteed tender beef; Imperfect testing; Niche marketing; Product differentiation; Quality uncertainty; Value-added agriculture; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18437

Rubin, Ofir D.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Hayes, Dermot J..

Biofuel subsidies in the United States have been justified on the following grounds: energy independence, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, improvements in rural development related to biofuel plants, and farm income support. The 2007 energy act emphasizes the first two objectives. In this study, we quantify the costs and benefits that different biofuels provide. We consider the first two objectives separately and show that each can be achieved with a lower social cost than that of the current policy. Then, we show that there is no evidence to disprove that the primary objective of biofuel policy is to support farm income. Current policy favors corn production and the construction of corn-based ethanol plants. We find that favoring corn happens to...

Index Insurance, Probabilistic Climate Forecasts, and Production

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Biofuel subsidies; Energy security; Feedstock; Greenhouse gas emissions; Social preferences; Value-added agriculture; Agricultural Finance; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6333

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Osgood, Daniel E..

Index insurance and probabilistic seasonal forecasts are becoming available in developing countries to help farmers manage climate risks in production. Although these tools are intimately related, work has not been done to formalize the connections between them. We investigate the relationship between the risk management tools through a model of input choice under uncertainty, forecasts, and insurance. While it is possible for forecasts to undermine insurance, we find that when contracts are appropriately designed, there are important synergies between forecasts, insurance, and effective input use. Used together, these tools overcome barriers preventing the use of imperfect information in production decision making.

Index Insurance, Production Practices, and Probabilistic Climate Forecasts

Palavras-chave: Basis risk; Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input decisions; Insurance; Risk management; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6107

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Osgood, Daniel E..

The failure of the development of commercially viable traditional crop insurance products and innovations in financial markers has fed a renewed interest in the search for alternatives to help producers in developing countries manage their risk exposure. Salient among these is the proposal of several index insurance schemes against weather events. Among the basic tenets are that the presence of index insurance allows producers to intensify their operations and reduce the risks of default and hence may induce creditors to offer loans at affordable rates. The two factors combined are touted as key to help producers in developing countries escape poverty traps. Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts create challenges for the design and effective...

Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality

Palavras-chave: Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input Decisions; Risk Management; Weather risks; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21463

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Babcock, Bruce A..

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the...

Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Consumer satisfaction; Heterogeneous customers; Quality expectations; Quality heterogeneity; Quality management; Repeated purchases; Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18637

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/14/2010.

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF PASTURE EXPANSION ON EMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE CHANGE

Palavras-chave: Pasture expansion; Greenhouse gas emissions; Land-use change; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57262

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introduces a tax on me-thane emissions from cattle in the United States. The resulting expansion of pasture in the rest of the world leads to substantially higher emissions than without the tax. The yearly average emissions from the tax are 260 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.

OPTIMAL QUALITY ASSURANCE SYSTEMS FOR AGRICULTURAL OUTPUTS

Palavras-chave: Land-use change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Pasture expansion; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95944

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Carbone, Roxana.

New quality assurance systems (QASs) are being put in place to facilitate the flow of information about agricultural and food products. But what constitutes a proper mix of public and private efforts in setting up QASs is an unsettled question. A better understanding of private sector incentives for setting up such systems will help clarify what role the public sector might have in establishing standards. We contribute to this understanding by modeling the optimal degree of "stringency" or assurance in a processor's quality control system over procurement of agricultural output when there exists uncertainty about quality. Our model addresses two questions: (1) Should a buyer of agricultural outputs implement a QAS as a way to gain and provide information...