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Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons 31
Chinn, Menzie D.; Meredith, Guy.
The unbiasedness hypothesis - the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and rational expectations - has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. The results of these long-horizon regressions are much more positive - the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the predicted value of unity than to zero. These results are robust to changes in data type and to base currency (i.e., Deutschemark versus US dollar). We appeal to an econometric interpretation of the results, which focuses on the presence of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements; Foreign Exchange; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Financial Economics; F21; F31; F41.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26355
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The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration 31
Chinn, Menzie D.; Fairlie, Robert W..
To identify the determinants of cross-country disparities in personal computer and Internet penetration, we examine a panel of 161 countries over the 1999-2001 period. Our candidate variables include economic variables (income per capita, years of schooling, illiteracy, trade openness), demographic variables (youth and aged dependency ratios, urbanization rate), infrastructure indicators (telephone density, electricity consumption), telecommunications pricing measures, and regulatory quality. With the exception of trade openness and the telecom pricing measures, these variables enter in as statistically significant in most specifications for computer use. A similar pattern holds true for Internet use, except that telephone density and aged dependency...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Computers; Internet; Digital divide; Infrastructure; Pricing; Regulation; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession; O30; L96.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28408
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