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Registros recuperados: 66
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A Dynamic CGE Model: An Application of R&D- Based Endogenous Growth Model Theory AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Elbasha, Elamin H.; Roe, Terry L.; Yeldan, A. Erinc.
An R&D based endogenous growth - applied general equilibrium model is developed from an underlying analytical model which combines Romer's capital variety with Grossman and Helpman's multi-sector open economy model. The transitional dynamics of the analytical model are derived. For numerical implementation, a time discrete empirical model, with an Armington structure, is fit to East Asian data of the social accounting matrix variety. Simulations of trade reform are performed and their static and dynamic effects compared. The transition paths of the state variables are found to have a half-life of five to six periods. A solution of the Social Planner's problem, and interventions which seek to obtain this outcome from the decentralized model are also...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Applied General Equilibrium; Trade; Growth; International Relations/Trade; F11; 031; 041.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7461
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A Dynamic CGE Model of R&D Based Growth in the U.S. Economy: An Experiment Using the New Growth Theory AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Development; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50866
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A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF CONJUNCTIVE GROUND AND SURFACE WATER USE WITH AN APPLICATION TO MOROCCO AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Dinar, Ariel; Roe, Terry L.; Tsur, Yacov.
Groundwater resources (GW) account for nearly 30 percent of the world sustainable water supplies. Yet, this resource, which is fraught with externalities, has largely been left unregulated. The economic literature on GW is predominantly of a partial equilibrium type, taking the rest of the economy parametrically. We analyze GW regulation in a general equilibrium setting, focusing on the stabilization value of GW under natural (draught) and economic (rural-urban water transfer) shocks. A general equilibrium approach allows evaluating direct and indirect effects of GW regulation on agriculture and non-agriculture sectors and extends the scope for water policy. The analysis is applied to Morocco by extending an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE)...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7143
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A GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE REFORM IN WTO MEMBER COUNTRIES AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi; Roe, Terry L..
The effect on production, trade and well-being from the granting of market access, removing export subsidies, and eliminating trade-distorting forms of direct support to farmers in WTO member countries is analyzed from a world-wide general equilibrium perspective using the most recently available data. The results suggest that removing trade barriers, subsidies and support will cause aggregate world prices of agricultural commodities to rise by over 11 percent relative to an index of all other prices. Agricultural support and protection in the developed countries is found to be the major cause of low agricultural prices, and implicitly, a tax on net agricultural exporters in developing countries. Livestock product prices are likely to increase the most...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12984
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Accelerating Growth and Structural Transformation: Ghana’s Options for Reaching Middle-Income Country Status AgEcon
Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James; Yu, Bingxin; Kolavalli, Shashidhara.
Ghana is an emerging success story in Africa and in a couple of years will become the first African country to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving its national poverty rate. The government of Ghana has therefore extended its development vision and recently declared the goal of reaching middle-income-country (MIC) status by 2015. To analyze possible pathways and implications of achieving MIC status, this paper examines other countries’ experiences on their way to becoming MICs and emphasizes the important role of growth acceleration, export diversification, and economic structural change in the transformation process. The paper further analyzes Ghana’s growth options and their structural implications using a dynamic computable general...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Growth and development; Middle income country; Applied general equilibrium modeling; Ghana; Africa; International Development.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42347
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Achieving Regional Growth Dynamics in African Agriculture AgEcon
Abdulai, Awudu; Diao, Xinshen; Johnson, Michael.
This study focuses on public investments and policy reforms for leveraging growth spillovers at the African regional level. A conceptual framework that is built on the endogenous growth theory and the new economic geography is presented first to gain a better understanding of the underlying theory and empirical evidence on regional integration and growth spillovers. In order to demonstrate the potential benefits from greater cross-border technology spillovers in Africa, as well as from trade liberalization and investment in infrastructure, results from ex-ante simulations using partial and general equilibrium models are then presented and discussed. Results indicate that sizeable regional spillover benefits can be obtained by permitting greater crossborder...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Computable General Equilibrium Models C68; Agricultural growth; Agricultural sector; International Development.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58371
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Agricultural Growth and Investment Options for Poverty Reduction in Rwanda AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Fan, Shenggen; Kanyarukiga, Sam; Yu, Bingxin.
An economywide, multimarket (EMM) model was developed for Rwanda to analyze the linkages and trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction goals at both macro- and micro-economic levels. The model includes 30 agricultural commodities or commodity groups from eight broad agricultural subsectors, along with two aggregated nonagricultural sectors. The analysis compares the economic, income, and poverty effects of a variety of growth scenarios based on existing national subsector growth targets. The analysis shows 6 percent of CAADP’s agricultural GDP growth target is achievable if growth reaches its target at the agricultural subsectoral level. But it is not enough for the country to achieve the MDG One, although the national poverty rate in 2015 will be 17...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42427
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Agricultural Growth Linkages in Ethiopia: Estimates using Fixed and Flexible Price Models AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Fekadu, Belay; Haggblade, Steven; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Wamisho, Kassu; Yu, Bingxin.
Accelerating growth and poverty reduction, and the ultimate achievement of structural transformation, are the critical policy challenges in present day Ethiopia. This paper examines relevant growth options in terms of their impact on overall growth and poverty reduction in the country. It deploys a fixed-price semi-input-output model and a flexible-price economy-wide multi-market model for that purpose. The paper finds that agricultural growth can induce higher overall growth and faster poverty reduction than non-agricultural growth, although the latter can also have large growth effects in some cases. Among sub-sectors within agriculture, staple crops have stronger growth linkages. Decomposition of these effects also reveals that consumption linkages are...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Development.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42419
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AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM IN THE WTO: THE ROAD AHEAD AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Elbehri, Aziz; Gehlhar, Mark J.; Gibson, Paul R.; Leetmaa, Susan E.; Mitchell, Lorraine; Nelson, Frederick J.; Nimon, R. Wesley; Normile, Mary Anne; Roe, Terry L.; Shapouri, Shahla; Skully, David W.; Smith, Mark; Somwaru, Agapi; Trueblood, Michael A.; Tsigas, Marinos E.; Wainio, John; Whitley, Daniel B.; Young, C. Edwin.
Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. Trade barriers lower demand for trade partners' products, domestic subsidies can induce an oversupply of agricultural products which depresses world prices, and export subsidies create increased competition for producers in other countries. Eliminating global agricultural policy distortions would result in an annual world welfare gain of $56 billion. High protection for agricultural commodities in the form of tariffs continues to be the major factor restricting world trade. In 2000, World Trade Organization (WTO) members continued global negotiations on agricultural policy reform. To help policymakers and others...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34015
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An Anatomy of Moroccan Agricultural Trade AgEcon
Li, NaiChia; Roe, Terry L.; Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi.
Morocco is engaged in a number of economic reforms to better position the country's integration into world markets. Her agricultural sector is particularly important as its trade, GDP, and employment share are relatively large. We analyze Morocco's agricultural trade growth trends over the past 40 years (1962 - 2004) using SITC 4-digit bilateral agricultural trade data. The data are analyzed using the trend and cycles decomposition (TCD) approach and measurement of trade growth at the intensive and extensive margin. We find a high concentration of agriculture trade in both commodities and trading partners. Morocco has also lost export shares in EU to other EU countries in her top exporting commodities. Another finding suggests that agricultural export...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9834
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AN INTERTEMPORAL, MULTI-REGION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN THE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN NICs, TURKEY, AND THE EUROPEAN UNION AgEcon
Bayar, Ali; Diao, Xinshen; Yeldan, A. Erinc.
With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, we study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. We specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16276
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ASSESSING IMPACTS OF DECLINES IN THE WORLD PRICE OF TOBACCO ON CHINA, MALAWI, TURKEY AND ZIMBABWE AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Robinson, Sherman; Thomas, Marcelle; Wobst, Peter.
This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16273
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Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa: a spatial equilibrium model analysis AgEcon
You, Liangzhi; Diao, Xinshen.
In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect-consumers’ reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices-is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Avian influenza; Spatial equilibrium model simulation; West Africa; Nigeria; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55399
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CHINA'S EMPLOYMENT AND RURAL LABOR MIGRATION AgEcon
Somwaru, Agapi; Diao, Xinshen; Gale, H. Frederick, Jr.; Tuan, Francis C..
This study examines the rural labor market in China based on the country's first national agricultural census. The analysis highlights distinct differences of employment by age, gender, educational level, size of the household, and size of land holdings. We use a generalized polytomous logits (GPL) framework to analyze the patterns of rural labor employment, capture the dynamic trends of the rural labor force, and gauge rural migration. The estimation results, based on more than 4 million records of rural persons, indicate that the land size followed by the education level and age are the main factors affecting the chances of rural labor force by employment categories.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20459
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China's WTO Accession: Conflicts with Domestic Agricultural Policies and Institutions AgEcon
Colby, Hunter; Diao, Xinshen; Tuan, Francis C..
This analysis examines the implications of WTO accession for China's domestic policies and institutions by identifying some of China's agricultural policies and institutional arrangements that may generate conflicts with WTO requirements and analyzing the nature and extent of the conflict. We differentiate three alternative ways that China's current domestic policy or institutions may conflict with or be incompatible with WTO accession: (1) the domestic policy or institution is expressly prohibited by WTO rules and principles; (2) the changes required by WTO accession impose additional costs on the government such that the existing policy or institutions are difficult to sustain; and (3) the changes required for WTO accession reduce the effectiveness of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Accession; China; Domestic policies and institutions; WTO; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23859
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CHINA'S WTO ACCESSION: CONFLICTS WITH DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS AgEcon
Colby, Hunter; Diao, Xinshen; Tuan, Francis C..
This analysis examines the implications of WTO accession for China’s domestic policies and institutions by identifying some of Chinese agricultural policies and institutional arrangements that may generate conflicts with WTO requirements and analyzing the nature and extent of the conflict that may be introduced by WTO accession. We differentiate three alternative ways that China’s current domestic policy or institutions may conflict with or be incompatible with WTO accession: (1) the domestic policy or institution is expressly prohibited by WTO rules and principles; (2) the changes required by WTO accession impose additional costs on the government such that the existing policy or institutions are difficult to sustain; and (3) the changes required for WTO...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16269
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China's WTO Accession: Conflicts with Domestic Agricultural Policies and Institutions: Technical Annex AgEcon
Colby, Hunter; Diao, Xinshen; Tuan, Francis C..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23864
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Cost Implications of Agricultural Land Degradation in Ghana: An Economywide, Multimarket Model Assessment AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Sarpong, Daniel Bruce.
An economywide, multimarket model is constructed for Ghana and the effects of agricultural soil erosion on crop yields are explicitly modeled at the subnational regional level for eight main staple crops. The model is used to evaluate the aggregate economic costs of soil erosion by taking into account economywide linkages between production and consumption, across sectors and agricultural subsectors. To fill a gap in the literature regarding economic cost analysis of soil erosion, this paper also analyzes the poverty implications of land degradation. The model predicts that land degradation reduces agricultural income in Ghana by a total of US$4.2 billion over the period 2006–2015, which is approximately five percent of total agricultural GDP in these ten...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ghana; Agricultural Soil Loss; Economywide modeling; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42416
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Cross-Commodity Analysis of China's Grain Sector: Sources of Growth and Supply Response AgEcon
Colby, Hunter; Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi.
We investigate sources of output growth and supply response in rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans, the four most important crops in China's grain sector, during 1978-97. Using a growth accounting methodology, we found large total factor productivity (TFP) contributions to growth in grain production immediately following China's rural economic reform (1978-85). In 1995-97, the TFP contribution dropped to only 16 percent of growth in grain production, as greater use of inputs increasingly drove growth. In the supply response analysis, the results of the econometrically estimated restricted profit function confirm a joint and nonseparable multiproduct technology for China's grain sector. Complementarity prevails in the grain sector among different outputs and...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: China agriculture; Growth accounting; Total factor productivity (TFP); Multi-product supply response; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33565
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DECOUPLED PAYMENTS IN A CHANGING POLICY SETTING AgEcon
Ahearn, Mary Clare; Collender, Robert N.; Diao, Xinshen; Harrington, David H.; Hoppe, Robert A.; Korb, Penelope J.; Makki, Shiva S.; Morehart, Mitchell J.; Roberts, Michael J.; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi; Vandeveer, Monte; Westcott, Paul C.; Young, C. Edwin.
The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act on recipient households, and assess land, labor, risk management, and capital market conditions that can lead to links between decoupled payments and production choices. Each study contributes a different perspective to understanding the response of U.S. farm households and production to decoupled income transfers. Some use new microdata on farm households collected through USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), initiated in 1996, and its predecessor survey. These data are used to compare household and producer behavior and outcomes before and after the FAIR Act. Other studies use applied or conceptual models to...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33981
Registros recuperados: 66
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