SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Dong, Fengxia; Lu, Jing; Du, Xiaodong.

CHINA is currently the world largest emitter of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2). Understanding the driving forces governing CO2 emission levels and their evolutions in China can provide useful information for policy makers who aim to reduce green house gas emissions. Because of policy and historical reasons, considerable regional growth and income disparities exist in China. The regional disparities may influence energy use and CO2 emissions. Therefore, this study is to investigate the driving forces governing CO2 emission levels and their evolutions at regional level in China.

A Welfare Analysis of the U.S. Ethanol Subsidy

Palavras-chave: Carbon dioxide emission; Decomposition analysis; Region; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61390

Du, Xiaodong; Hayes, Dermot J.; Baker, Mindy L..

Based on a transparent analytical model of multiple markets including corn, ethanol, gasoline, and transportation fuel, this study estimates the welfare changes for consumers and producers resulting from ethanol production and related support polices in 2007. The welfare estimation takes into account the second-best gain from eliminating loan deficiency payments. The results suggest the total social cost is about $0.78 billion for given market parameters. We validate the model’s underlying assumption and test for the results’ sensitivity to assumed parameters.

Are Crop Yield Distributions Negatively Skewed? A Bayesian Examination

Palavras-chave: Consumer surplus; Deadweight loss; Ethanol; Subsidy; Substitution.; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44538

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Yu, Cindy L..

Determinants of Iowa Cropland Cash Rental Rates: Testing Ricardian Rent Theory

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60988

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Edwards, William M..

Based on the Ricardian rent theory, this study employs the variable profit function to analyze the determinants of Iowa cropland cash rental rates using county-level panel data from 1987 to 2005. Accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelations, responses of local cash rental rates to changes in output prices and other exogenous variables are estimated. We find that Iowa cash rental rates are largely determined by output/input prices, soil quality, relative location, and other county-specific factors. Cash rents go up by $79 for a $1 increase in corn price in the short run. The marginal value of cropland quality, as represented by row-crop corn suitability rating index, is about $1.05. Ethanol plants are not found to have a significant local effect on...

Determinants of Iowa Cropland Cash Rental Rates: Testing Ricardian Rent Theory

Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6355

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Edwards, William M..

Does a Rising Biofuels Tide Raise All Boats? A Study of Cash Rent Determinants for Iowa Farmland under Hay and Pasture

Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Basis; Ethanol; Land quality shadow price; Rate of adjustment; Spatial autocorrelation; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7700

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Edwards, William M..

Iowa’s farmland consists of over 16% hay crops and pastureland, a significant portion of which is under cash rental contracts. This study investigates the comparative relationships between cash rental rates for cropped land and non-cropped land, where the latter includes hay and pastureland. We find that higher crop prices resulting from biofuel demand induces land use conversion from non-cropped land to crop production and thus bids up non-cropped land rents. Compared with changes in cropped land cash rents, non-cropped farmland rents could increase by a higher percentage. Non-cropped land cash rental rates are largely determined by crop and feeder cattle prices, population density, soil quality, and proportion of non-cropped land in a specific area. A...

Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Pastureland; Cash rents; Random effects model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44231

Du, Xiaodong; Hayes, Dermot J.; Yu, Cindy L..

We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to investigate the linkage between the volatility of ethanol security prices and the uncertainty surrounding the profitability of ethanol production and the price variations of non-ethanol energy securities. The joint evolution of return and volatility is modeled as a stochastic process that incorporates jumps in both return and volatility. While a strong and significant correlation is found between the volatility of ethanol securities and profit uncertainty from June 2005 to July 2008, the dynamic pattern of ethanol stock volatility is strikingly similar to that of the S&P 500 energy sector index in the more recent period. Our evidence lends support to the findings in the literature on rational learning...

Flex-Fuel Vehicle Adoption and the Dynamics of Ethanol Price: Lessons from Brazil and Implications for the United States

Palavras-chave: Jumps; Rational learning; Stochastic volatility; Technological innovation.; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53825

Du, Xiaodong; Carriquiry, Miguel A..

Poster

Geographic Determinants of Preferences along U.S. Crop Insurance Subsidy Schedule

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103690

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Feng, Hongli.

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124190

Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and On the Profitability of U.S. Oil Refinery Industry

Du, Xiaodong; Hayes, Dermot J..

Using pooled regional time-series data and panel data estimation, we quantify the impact of monthly ethanol production on monthly retail regular gasoline prices. This analysis suggests that the growth in ethanol production has caused retail gasoline prices to be $0.29 to $0.40 per gallon lower than would otherwise have been the case. The analysis shows that the negative impact of ethanol on gasoline prices varies considerably across regions. The Midwest region has the biggest impact, at $0.39/gallon, while the Rocky Mountain region had the smallest impact, at $0.17/gallon. The results also indicate that ethanol production has significantly reduced the profit margin of the oil refinery industry. The results are robust with respect to alternative model...

Inside the Black Box: Price Linkage and Transmission Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

Palavras-chave: Crack spread; Crude oil prices; Ethanol; Gasoline prices; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6353

Du, Xiaodong; McPhail, Lihong Lu.

This study addresses the complex relationship between energy and agricultural markets—represented by corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices—particularly in light of the growth in biofuel production. Contemporaneous price response and transmission of market shocks are investigated in a simultaneous-equation system to disclose fundamental driving forces before and after the development of large-scale ethanol production. We use a dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to demonstrate a strengthening relationship among corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We identify a structural change point at March 25, 2008 using the test by Bai and Perron (2003). The strengthened market relationship is further illustrated by variance decomposition based on a...

Local Geography of Row-Crop Quality Land and Cropland Cash Rental Rates

Palavras-chave: Corn; Ethanol; Gasoline; Structural break; Structural VAR; GARCH; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C32; Q11; Q4.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103268

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A..

While farmland rental markets are likely to be spatially differentiated, the fine spatial structure of row-crop quality land should have a significant effect on cash rent determination. This study provides a rigorous empirical understanding of the effect of land spatial heterogeneity on cash rental rates. The lacunarity index is employed to measure spatial heterogeneity of land quality, which is built directly upon a soil quality measure, the land parcel’s corn suitability rating index (CSR). A panel data random effect model is applied on annual survey data of farmland cash rental rates of Iowa for 1987-2009. As expected, land spatial heterogeneity has a statistically significant and negative effect on local cash rent rates. The effect’s origin warrants...

Milk Price Volatility and its Determinants

Palavras-chave: Land spatial heterogeneity; Rental market; Agricultural Finance; C5; G1; Q1.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103450

Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Gould, Brian W..

The classified pricing of fluid milk under the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO) system combined with the cash settlement feature of Class IIII milk futures contracts generate a unique volatility pattern of these futures markets in the sense that the volatility gradually decreases as the USDA price announcement dates approaching in the month. Focusing on the evolution of volatility in Class III milk futures market, this study quantifies the relative importance of a set of factors driving milk price variation. While volatilities in both corn futures market and financial market Granger-cause the milk price volatility, the impact of financial market is more persistent. Besides embedded seasonality, market demand and supply conditions in the dairy...

Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Cash settlement; Impulse responses; Milk pricing; Realized volatility; Speculation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q11; Q14..

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103617

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/14/2010.

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF PASTURE EXPANSION ON EMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE CHANGE

Palavras-chave: Pasture expansion; Greenhouse gas emissions; Land-use change; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57262

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introduces a tax on me-thane emissions from cattle in the United States. The resulting expansion of pasture in the rest of the world leads to substantially higher emissions than without the tax. The yearly average emissions from the tax are 260 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.

Pass-Through in United States Beef Cattle Prices

Palavras-chave: Land-use change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Pasture expansion; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95944

Zhao, Huan; Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A..

Feeder cattle are fattened to become fed live cattle six months later. The U.S. feeder cattle industry is intensively competitive, so that market efficiency suggests feeder cattle prices should fully reflect feed prices and information on future fed cattle prices. Employing a long time series (1979-2004) of feeder cattle futures, live cattle futures, and local corn prices, we test whether complete pass-through occurs. The results indicate that an increase of a dollar per hundred pounds in the live cattle price leads to an increase of approximately $1.48 per hundred pounds in the feeder cattle price in one month, about 93% of complete pass-through. The corresponding negative effect of a corn price increase is about 87% of complete pass-through. By contrast...

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Feeder cattle; Futures market efficiency; Live cattle; Structural change.; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Production Economics.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52085

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are contrasted with the findings of Searchinger et al., and we explain the role of model...

Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Crop yield; Greenhouse gas emissions; Indirect land-use change.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51945

Du, Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J..

This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility...

Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis

Palavras-chave: Gibbs sampling; Merton jump; Leverage effect; Stochastic volatility.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50073

Du, Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J..

This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound Poisson jumps. We find evidence of volatility...

Testing Day’s Conjecture that More Nitrogen Decreases Crop Yield Skewness

Palavras-chave: Gibbs sampling; Merton jump; Leverage effect; Stochastic volatility; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; G13; Q4.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49276

Du, Xiaodong; Hennessy, David A.; Yu, Cindy L..

While controversy surrounds skewness attributes of typical yield distributions, a better understanding is important for agricultural policy assessment and for crop insurance rate setting. Day (1965) conjectured that crop yield skewness declines with an increase in low levels of nitrogen use, but higher levels have no effect. In a theoretical model based on the law of the minimum (von Liebig) technology, we find conditions under which Day’s conjecture applies. Employing four experimental plot datasets, we investigate the conjecture by introducing (a) a flexible Bayesian extension of the Just-Pope technology to incorporate skewness, and (b) a quantile-based measure of skewness shift. For corn yields, the Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence in favor...