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Registros recuperados: 32
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2006 Global Cotton Outlook AgEcon
Mohanty, Samarendu; Pan, Suwen; Welch, Mark; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Ethridge, Don E..
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53154
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2007 Global Cotton Outlook AgEcon
Ethridge, Don E.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Pan, Suwen; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Welch, Mark; Yates, Samantha.
Economic Fundamentals - Real GDP growth is projected to be stable at about 2.5% per year in developed countries and be around 5% in developing nations. A more favorable exchange rate between China’s currency and the U.S. dollar may make U.S. cotton more affordable to China’s growing cotton textile industry.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53155
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Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Welch, Mark; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Ethridge, Don E..
This article compares how eliminating the U.S. cotton subsidy program and the Chinese cotton tariff-rate quota (TRQ) would affect the world cotton market. The results show China's TRQ has a greater negative impact on the world cotton market than do U.S. subsidies. Compared to a base-level estimate, the elimination of China's TRQ increases the world cotton price and increases the quantity of world cotton traded, whereas the elimination of U.S. cotton subsidies increases the cotton price (but less than under TRQ elimination) and decreases the world cotton trade. The combined effect of eliminating both programs is also shown.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23895
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Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market: Technical Annex AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Welch, Mark; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Ethridge, Don E..
This document is the technical annex to the full paper "Assessing the Impacts of the Chinese TRQ System and U.S. Subsidies on the World Cotton Market" which is available separately.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23884
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Asymmetry, Risk, and Correlation Dynamics in the U.S. Fiber Market AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Misra, Sukant K..
This study looked at the dynamics of conditional correlations and hedging strategies in the US main cotton producing regions. A two-step procedure was utilized to model, estimate, and analyze volatility, conditional correlations, and the optimal hedge ratios using spot prices in the Delta, Southeast, Southern Plains, and the Southwest regions and the New York commodity exchanges December futures contracts. The results indicate that volatilities in most of the regions are asymmetric and persistent. The derived conditional correlations and the optimal hedging ratios are dynamic although they do not have unit root. Moreover, the changes in agricultural policies altered the dynamics of correlations and producers' hedging strategies in the Delta, Southeast,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cotton; Volatility; Asymmetry; Multivariate conditional correlations; Optimal; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19459
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Chinese Tariff Rate Quota v.s. U.S. Subsidies: What Affects the World Cotton Market More? AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Welch, Mark; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Ethridge, Don E..
Paper replaced with new version 8/17/05
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cotton; International trade; Subsidies; TRQ; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19111
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COLLECTIVE ACTION AND INFORMAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ROTATING AND SAVINGS CREDIT ASSOCIATIONS (ROSCAS) IN SENEGAL AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Fadiga-Stewart, Leslie A..
This study analyzes how rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs) in Senegal were able to overcome the collective action dilemma, maintain institutional performance, and remain sustainable over time. This study models cooperation among members as well as the performance and sustainability of associations using data collected from field research conducted in Dakar, Senegal in 2001. The results show that factors such as homogeneity of individuals within an association, how long the association has existed, how defaults are covered, and rules such residency requirements, individual contributions, and rotation order are to various degree critical to the performance and sustainability of ROSCAs and to the fostering of cooperation among members of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Financial Economics.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20053
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Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Misra, Sukant K..
A multivariate unobserved component model was applied to identify common movements among cotton, wool, rayon, and polyester world prices. Two common stochastic trends and cycles govern the stochastic behaviors of price fluctuations in the world fiber market. These unobserved components have important implications as they can help in the design of more efficient commodity programs to smooth terms of trade shocks, especially in developing countries. The study found the effect of inventory adjustments on world cotton price is diminishing, which indicates that speculative behaviors in the world fiber market are less prevalent than previously thought.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Common factors; Fiber prices; Kalman filter; State-space; Unobserved components; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8596
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Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market - Evidence from a Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Misra, Sukant K..
This study shows that the stochastic process that governs price fluctuations in the international fiber market has transitory and permanent components. The results also indicate structural relationships between cotton price and wool price, wool price and oil price, rayon price and cotton price, and between polyester price and cotton price.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Unobserved components; State-space; Kalman filter; Fiber prices; Cofeature; International Relations/Trade; C32; Q11.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35545
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Cotton in a Free Trade World AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Welch, Mark; Ethridge, Don E..
The United States has issued a proposal to the world trading community outlining several steps to jumpstart the stalled World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations on agriculture. The proposal is intended as a challenge to members of the WTO to improve market access through “ambitious tariff reduction” and to “move aggressively” to cut trade-distorting domestic support (Portman, 2005). Although the major parameters of the proposal are yet to be defined, these steps seem consistent with commitments made by WTO participating countries to move agricultural trade negotiations forward in the framework agreement of July 2004.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53147
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Cotton Trade Liberalizations and Domestic Agricultural Policy Reforms: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Welch, Mark.
This paper analyzed the effects of trade liberalizing reforms in the world cotton market using a partial equilibrium model. The simulation results indicated that a removal of domestic subsidies and border tariffs for cotton would increase the amount of world cotton trade by an average of 4% in the next five years and world cotton prices by an average of 12% over the same time horizon. The findings indicated that under the liberalization policy, the United States would lose part of its export share to Brazil, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, net cotton importing countries with minimum domestic and trade distortions would import less because of higher cotton prices whereas net cotton importing countries that subsidize domestic production and/or impose...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35469
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Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L..
This study employs a structural time-series method to model and estimate U.S. cotton exports and mill use. The results show that the stochastic process governing cotton export fluctuations is transitory, while the process pertaining to mill use has transitory, seasonal, and secular origins. The estimated structural relationships after accounting for the unobserved components indicate U.S. cotton exports respond directly to higher international price relative to domestic price of cotton, while mill use responds directly to U.S. textile output price and cotton-to-polyester price ratio. Exchange rate volatility and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program have no significant effect on cotton exports.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton exports; Cotton mill use; Kalman filter; State space; Unobserved components; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57698
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Dynamics of Price-Cost Margins in the U.S. Meat Industry AgEcon
Chidmi, Benaissa; Fadiga, Mohamadou L..
This study analyses the stochastic behavior of price-cost margins (PCMs) in the U.S. meat industry. It, first, develops and estimates a vertical relationship economic model to derive PCMs in the U.S. meat industry (Beef, Pork, and Poultry). Second it analyzes the behavior of PCMs by decomposing them into their seasonal, cyclical, and trend components using the state-space and the Kalman filtering methods. Price-cost margins in the U.S. meat industry are governed by two common trends and two common cycles. The study also found cyclical variability of PCMs is the highest with chicken, secular variability of PCMs is the highest with pork, while seasonal variability of PCMs is the highest with beef.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Price-cost margins; Market channel; Meat industry; State-space Kalman filter; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9745
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Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices with Asymmetric-Error GARCH Models AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; Fadiga, Mohamadou L..
The performance of a proposed asymmetric-error GARCH model is evaluated in comparison to the normal-error- and Student-t-GARCH models through three applications involving forecasts of U.S. soybean, sorghum, and wheat prices. The applications illustrate the relative advantages of the proposed model specification when the error term is asymmetrically distributed, and provide improved probabilistic forecasts for the prices of these commodities.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: GARCH; Nonnormality; Skewness; Time-series forecasting; U.S. commodity prices; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30714
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Global Cotton Baseline 2007-08 - 2017/18 AgEcon
Ethridge, Don E.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Pan, Suwen; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Yates, Samantha.
Economic Fundamentals - Real GDP growth is projected to be stable at about 2.1% per year in developed countries and 5.8% in developing nations. A more favorable exchange rate between Chinese Yuan and the U.S. dollar may make U.S. cotton more affordable to China’s growing cotton textile industry.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53153
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Guide to Foreign Crop Subsidies and Tariffs AgEcon
Ethridge, Don E.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Pan, Suwen; Welch, Mark; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Velandia-Parra, Margarita M.; Yates, Samantha.
This study attempts to summarize information on farm policies being used for seven major crops–corn, cotton, rice, sorghum, soybeans, sugar, and wheat–by a group of 21 countries representing both developing and developed nations. Overall, the study concludes that agriculture has a special status in both developed and developing countries with a wide variety of subsidy and protection instruments in place.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53138
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PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE U.S. FIBER MARKETS:ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR COTTON INDUSTRY AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Chaudhary, Jagadanand.
The paper examines the price dynamics in the U.S. fiber market using error correction version of Granger causality test. Monthly prices are used to examine short-run and long-run price relationships simultaneously. Before specifying causal equations, time series properties of the prices are tested and are found to be first difference stationary and cointegrated. The causality results suggest weak lead-lag relationship between cotton and polyester prices in either direction. However, strongest relation is instantaneous feedback (within a month) between cotton and polyester prices. It may be interpreted from these results that any shock to the equilibrium relationships is mostly restored within a month. In addition, highly significant error correction terms...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35071
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PRICE RELATIONSHIPS IN THE U.S. FIBER MARKETS: ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR COTTON INDUSTRY AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fadiga, Mohamadou L..
The paper examined the price relationship between cotton and polyester. The results provide strong evidence of long term price transmissions and granger causality between cotton and polyester price as well as the asymmetry transmissions for cotton on cotton, cotton on polyester, and polyester on polyester price. However, we did not find any evidence that there exists asymmetry transmission for polyester price on cotton price. Our results also did not support the contemporaneous effects hypothesis between polyester price and cotton price.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22138
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Sino-U.S. and Sino-E.U. Textile Safeguard Agreements: Comparing the Effects to Free Market Conditions AgEcon
Pan, Suwen; Welch, Mark; Mohanty, Samarendu; Fadiga, Mohamadou L..
The effects of Sino-US and Sino-EU safeguard agreements on US, China and world cotton and textile sectors are investigated using a partial equilibrium model. The effects are compared to a free trade scenario under the provisions of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). The two agreements capping Chinese textile exports would decrease China's textile and apparel exports, production and domestic consumption by an average 1.57 percent, 0.63 percent and, 0.32 percent respectively. The safeguard agreements cause an increase in the U.S. cotton textile price index and a slight decrease in U.S. net textile imports and textile consumption. The agreements cause a decrease in the world cotton price and the quantity of cotton traded, but these trends...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21117
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Stochastic Analysis of World Cotton Outlook Addendum to the 2007/08-2017/18 Baseline AgEcon
Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Pan, Suwen; Ethridge, Don E.; Hudson, Darren; Mutuc, Maria Erlinda M..
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: The cotton market baseline analysis released in 2008 (Ethridge et al.) provided critical information about the future of the world cotton market over the next ten years (2007/02- 2017/18). It is based on a deterministic approach that utilizes the world fiber model developed by the Cotton Economics Research Institute (CERI) at Texas Tech University (Pan et al. 2004). The world fiber model is a multi-country multi-sector partial equilibrium model that includes the world’s 24 major cotton importing and exporting countries and regions. While the deterministic model provides the best available point estimates of potential market outcomes; It does not reveal information about the underlying variability of these markets over time.; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53140
Registros recuperados: 32
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