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| Hussain, Intizar; Liaw, Alvin; Hafi, Ahmed. |
| A model for forecasting changes in crop areas in response to changes in output prices in Australian broadacre agriculture is outlined in this paper. The crop–livestock interactions and substitution and complementary relationships among crops are modeled as a set of land allocation decisions made simultaneously but at a number of hierarchical stages. The model developed here is broader in scope than previous models of crop area response in Australian broadacre agriculture in terms of crop coverage. The method employed takes specific account of lagged relationships and producer expectations for prices. In the model, area allocation decisions at the aggregate level are also affected by rainfall. The specified equations are estimated employing the seemingly... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123817 |
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| Hafi, Ahmed; Thorpe, Sally; Foster, Adam. |
| Climate change is expected to significantly reduce water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin. This paper details a bio-physical economic model of the Basin regions which has been developed to estimate the effect of reduced water availability on irrigated agriculture. In the model, regions are linked through a network of water and salt flows, while crop yields respond to irrigation and salinity. The model allows water trade to be restricted to regions or to be unrestricted across the basin. The paper also develops a hypothetical scenario to demonstrate the model. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
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| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47648 |
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| Hafi, Ahmed. |
| There are significant benefits in integrating a biological spread model into economic assessment of the cost of pest incursions (such as varroa mite or Mexican feather grass) on agricultural industries. To illustrate the potential usefulness of an integrated approach, a generic bioeconomic model is developed by linking a simple stochastic pest spread module, built around a set of logistic spread equations, and a partial equilibrium module of the market for an affected agricultural industry. The pest spread module estimates the damage over time, while the partial equilibrium module estimates the resultant effect of a reduction in supply on the commodity market. The estimated effects on market variables are then used to estimate the cost of a pest outbreak.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Pest spread; Logistic functions and partial equilibrium model; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100554 |
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| Hughes, Neal; Hafi, Ahmed; Goesch, Tim; Brownlowe, Nathan. |
| Australian urban water utilities face a significant challenge in designing appropriate demand management and supply augmentation policies in the presence of increasing water scarcity and uncertainty over future dam inflows. This paper considers the design of optimal demand management and supply augmentation policies for urban water. In particular, scarcity pricing is considered as a potential alternative to the predominant demand management policy of water restrictions. A stochastic dynamic programming model of an urban water market is developed based on data from the Australian Capital Territory. The model involves an explicit consideration of uncertainty via a probability distribution over dam inflows. Given a specification of the demand and supply for... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6005 |
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| Page, Sharon; Hafi, Ahmed; Beare, Stephen. |
| Most urban centres across Australia are facing water shortages. In part, these water shortages are due to the variability of supply and demand caused by variable climatic conditions. Permanent supply augmentation to meet periodic water shortages can be costly. Water trade between rural and urban areas, through urban water options contracts, may be a less costly way to meet variability. Urban water options could be used to improve system reliability and may reduce costs by delaying investment and reducing the frequency and severity of water shortages. This paper investigates the potential to use urban water options contracts, and develops a methodology for evaluation. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10398 |
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