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Registros recuperados: 18
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ADJUSTMENT COSTS OF AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY SWITCHINGS - A MULTI-AGENT APPROACH AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Happe, Kathrin; Kellermann, Konrad; Kleingarn, Anne.
More powerful computers, the better availability of micro-data, and the development of new modeling techniques, such as multi-agent systems, allows to analyze agricultural policies from the bottom up. We present such an approach that considers the spatial interaction of thousands of individually behaving heterogeneous farms and apply it to analyze agri-environmental policies for a selected intensive production region in the southwest of Germany.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20506
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Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis by Experimental Design and Metamodelling: An Application to Modelling Regional Structural Change AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin.
This paper presents the application of the sensitivity analysis techniques Design of Experiments (DOE) and metamodelling to the agent-based model AgriPoliS, which is a spatial and dynamic simulation model of regional structural change. DOE and metamodelling provide a more systematic analysis of results of complex simulation models. When summarising the results, it becomes clear that interest rates, technical change and managerial ability influence average economic land rent the most.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Simulation; Design of experiments; Metamodelling; Structural change; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C9; C15.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24464
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Agentenbasierte Politik- und Sektoranalyse - Perspektiven und Herausforderungen AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Happe, Kathrin.
During the last decade a new modeling approach, known as agent-based modeling, was developed and made its way into several areas of research. It greatly benefited from rapid developments in computing technology. As for economics, agent-based modeling is based on the observation that social systems can be understood and modeled explicitly as systems of interacting agents. Because of their flexibility with respect to the representation of agents, the interactions between agents as well as the resulting dynamic and spatial relationships, these models offer a great variety of perspectives for future research. In this contribution, the underlying modeling concept is presented, and exemplary applications to the field of sector and policy analysis are discussed....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Agent-based systems; Policy analysis; Sector modeling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99009
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Agricultural policies and farm structures. Agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform. AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin.
Agricultural structures have been shaped by a variety of factors including economic, cultural, historical, political, technological, and geographical conditions. Moreover, agricultural structures are not static. Structural change can be characterised as an evolutionary process consisting – among other things – of constant adjustment to changes in demand, supply, and technological progress. The development of competitive and efficient agricultural structures has been one of the central goals of agricultural policy making in addition to ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers. To achieve these goals, the agricultural sector in most industrialized nations has long been the subject of government interventions. However, many agricultural policies have...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93019
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Agricultural policies and farm structures - Agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin.
The development of competitive and efficient agricultural structures has been one of the central goals of agricultural policy making in addition to ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers. To achieve these goals, the agricultural sector in most industrialised nations has long been the subject of government interven-tions. However, many agricultural policies have worked counteractively to these goals by creating distortions in the use of resources. Against this background, the emergence of new and innovative modelling methods such as agent-based models, in addition to ever-increasing computing capacities has offered new possibilities to model adjustment reactions and to quantify the impact of agri-cultural policies. This thesis takes up these new...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14945
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Agriculture in the Face of Changing Markets, Institutions and Policies: Challenges and Strategies AgEcon
Balmann, Alfons; Curtiss, Jarmila; Dautzenberg, Kirsti; Happe, Kathrin; Huang, Jikun; Swinnen, Johan F.M.; Rozelle, Scott; Sedik, David J.; Ciaian, Pavel; Vranken, Liesbet; Doitchinova, Julia M.; Kanchev, Ivan; Miteva, Albena; Bachev, Hrabrin Ianouchev; Forgacs, Csaba; Guo, Hongdong; Ferto, Imre; Jolly, Robert W.; Zhu, Jianhua; Falkowski, Jan; Milczarek, Dominika; Peyerl, Hermann; Breuer, Gunter; Danilowska, Alina; Zawojska, Aldona; Ramanovich, Mikhail; Hemme, Torsten; Mirzaei, Farhad; Heidelbach, Olaf; Balkhausen, Oliver; Banse, Martin; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Grings, Michael; Luka, Oksana; Epstein, David B.; Naydenov, Nikolay; Sauer, Johannes; Balint, Borbala; Il'ina, Natalia; Svetlov, Nikolai M.; Weitzel, Enno-Burghard; Bayaner, Ahmet; Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan; Hockmann, Heinrich; Cechura, Lukas; Herzfeld, Thomas; Glauben, Thomas; Azzarri, Carlo; Carletto, Calogero; Davis, Benjamin; Zezza, Alberto; Nivievskyi, Oleg; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Newton, Claire; Bednarikova, Zuzana; Doucha, Tomas; Travnicek, Zdenek; Fock, Theodor.
Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmers’ managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93012
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CAP-reform and the provision of non-commodity outputs in Brandenburg AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Damgaard, Martin; Osuch, Amanda; Sattler, Claudia; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Schuler, Johannes; Piorr, Annette.
This paper presents an attempt to model the response of selected farms to decoupled direct payments and the associated impact on the provision of a defined set of non-commodity outputs (NCO’s) using a combined modelling approach consisting of the AgriPoliS and MODAM models. AgriPoliS focuses on the socio-economic dimension of multifunctionality at the individual farm and regional levels and explicitly models heterogeneous farms (in size, location and efficiency) within a competitive and dynamic environment. The linear-programming model MODAM allows a detailed representation of production processes and their impact on the environmental dimension of multifunctionality at the farm level. We simulate the impact of a uniform area payment and a fully decoupled...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Multifunctionality; Non-commodity outputs; Modelling; Simulation; Policy analysis; Ecological indicators; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97193
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS AgEcon
Buchenrieder, Gertrud; Mollers, Judith; Happe, Kathrin; Davidova, Sophia; Fredriksson, Lena; Bailey, Alastair; Kancs, d'Artis; Swinnen, Johan F.M.; Vranken, Liesbet; Hubbard, Carmen; Ward, Neil; Juvancic, Luka; Milczarek, Dominika; Plamen, Mishev.
The Deliverable 2.1 (D2.1) of the SCARLED project provides the conceptual framework for analysing structural change in agriculture and rural livelihoods in the NMS and established Member States of the EU. It concisely summarizes the underlying theories and concepts of the pertinent research issues in SCARLED. SCARLED addresses a topic of wide interest with regard to the identification of past and future key social and agricultural restructuring processes for a living countryside in the NMS. Methodologically, the topic is approached by comparative, structured multi-country farm surveys complemented by an analysis of structural changes in the farm sectors of two selected regions with the agent-based simulation model AgriPoliS, taking special account of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91737
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DIESE MODELLE SIND ZU KOMPLEX!-ODER DOCH NICHT?: EXPERIMENTELLES DESIGN UND METAMODELLIERUNG ALS MOGLICHER WEG, DAS KOMMUNIKATIONSPROBLEM AGENTENBASIERTER MODELLE IN DER POLITIKANALYSE ZU LOSEN (German) AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Kellermann, Konrad.
Agent-based models have recently become very popular. However, it is often difficult to communicate the models' complexity and assumptions. Hence, criticising them becomes a challenging task. This paper addresses this problem and discusses different ways to increase the transparency and acceptability of complex models. We use designed experiments and metamodelling to show relationships between model parameters and the impact of policy options. We do so using the model AgriPoliS which has been initialised using an artificial agricultural structure Agentenbasierte Ansätze erfreuen sich einer immer größeren Beliebtheit. Allerdings besteht ein grundlegendes Problem dieses Ansatzes darin, dass die Komplexität der angewendeten Modelle und der darin getroffenen...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agentenbasierte Modellierung; Design of Experiments; Sensitivitätsanalyse; Politikanalyse; Agent-based modelling; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7613
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DOING POLICY IN THE LAB! OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE USE OF MODEL-BASED POLICY ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons.
For models to have an impact on policy-making, they need to be used. Exploring the relationships between policy models, model uptake and policy dynamics is the core of this article. What particular role can policy models play in the analysis and design of policies? Which factors facilitate (inhibit) the uptake of models by policy-makers? What are possible pathways to further develop modelling approaches to better meet the challenges facing agriculture today? In this paper, we address these issues from three different points of view, each of which should shed some light on the subject. The first point of view discusses models in the framework of complex adaptive systems and uncertainty. The second point of view looks at the dynamic interplay between...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Modelling; Complexity; Participatory modelling; Policy analysis; Model use; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6588
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EXPLORING THE ROLE OF SUCCESSION PATTERNS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN'S DUALISTIC FARM STRUCTURES AgEcon
Schnicke, Hauke Joachim; Happe, Kathrin; Sahrbacher, Christoph; Kellermann, Konrad.
This paper analyses the interplay between farm adjustments on individual farms in dualistic farm structures over time using an agent-based simulation approach. In particular, explore the development of individual farms when there are off-farm work opportunities and different propensities of younger farm successors to take over the farm. Results show that despite of large numbers of individual farms leaving agriculture, the impacts on land use, production, and income are independent on different propensities to take over a farm.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dualistic farm structures; Individual farms; Generation change; Succession; Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6668
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FÖRDERUNG DER ENTWICKLUNG DES LÄNDLICHEN RAUMES IN POLEN UND BAYERN AgEcon
Sroka, Wojciech; Happe, Kathrin.
This paper compares the polish Programme for Rural Development (PROW) and the Bavarian counterpart (BayZAL). The focus is on comparing objectives and Instruments. The different development axes are at the centre of the analysis. The two programmes differ with regard to funding. The programmes are based on differing philosophies concerning the funding of different measures. These are due to differences in economic development and the quality of the human capital in rural areas. Both programmes emphasise measures related to agriculture despite of the claim to target at the whole rural area.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Entwicklung ländlicher Räume; Vergleichende Analyse; Polen; Bayern; Rural development; Comparative analysis; Poland; Bavaria; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91904
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Policy Risk Through Modulation of Direct Payments: Can Farms Live with a Strategic Disadvantage? AgEcon
Osuch, Amanda; Sahrbacher, Christoph; Kellermann, Konrad; Happe, Kathrin.
This paper explores the impacts of modulation as suggested by the EU Commission (“Preparing for the “Health Check” of the CAP reform”, 2007). The agent-based model AgriPoliS has been adapted to the case study region Ostprignitz-Ruppin (Brandenburg, Germany). Impacts on farm structures, regional production and the distribution of profits throughout farms are investigated, as well as impacts of the transfer of money coming from modulation to a second pillar measure widely spread in the case study region. The relative gains or losses of farms depending on their modulation groups are documented and potential expectations on such policies discussed.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Modulation; CAP; Decoupling; Agri-environmental payments.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48113
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STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND FARM LABOUR ADJUSTMENTS IN A DUALISTIC FARM STRUCTURE: A SIMULATION STUDY FOR THE REGION NITRA IN SOUTHWEST SLOVAKIA AgEcon
Schnicke, Hauke Joachim; Happe, Kathrin; Sahrbacher, Christoph.
This Discussion Paper explores interactions between structural impediments to labour adjustment, specific labour adjustment patterns and the impacts of differing economical and political frames. Based on the agent-based simulation framework AgriPoliS adjusted to the agricultural structure of the region Nitra in southwest Slovakia, we carry out a range of simulation experiments on the possible interplay between off-farm job opportunities for farm operators, growth in other sectors of the economy, and policy impacts. Results show that free movement of labour between sectors leads to strong adjustments in the agricultural labour force and benefits farms with a growth potential. EU Accession and a subsequent decoupling of payments lead farms to stay in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Labour input; Structural change; Agent-based modelling; Agricultural policy analysis. Landwirtschaftliche Beschäftigung; Strukturwandel; Agentenbasierte Modellierung; Politikanalyse; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Labor and Human Capital; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q 12; Q 18.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91736
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STRUCTURAL, EFFICIENCY AND INCOME EFFECTS OF DIRECT PAYMENTS - AN AGENT-BASED ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PAYMENT SCHEMES FOR THE GERMAN REGION OF HOHENLOHE AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons.
The paper analyses various forms of direct payments using the spatial and dynamic model AgriPoliS. In AgriPoliS farms are represented as agents which act and interact individually. This allows for endogenous structural change. The model is fitted to the agricultural region 'Hohenlohe' in Baden-Württemberg which is characterised by intensive livestock farming. The policy simulations show that the fixing of a single income payment and coupling it to the farming of land - as it has been proposed by the EU Commission in the mid-term review - does not have significant effects on structural change, competitiveness, and income as compared to the current Agenda 2000 policy. In order to reach a significant and lasting effect on the competitiveness of agriculture, a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25920
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Struktur-, Effizienz- und Einkommenswirkungen von Direktzahlungen AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons.
The paper analyses various forms of direct payments using the agent-based model AgriPoliS. The model is fitted to the agricultural region 'Hohenlohe' in Baden-Württemberg which is characterised by intensive livestock farming. The policy simulations show that decoupled payments which are attached to land do not have significant effects on structural change, competitiveness, and income as compared to the current Agenda 2000 policy. In order to reach a significant and lasting effect on the competitiveness of agriculture direct payments would have to be granted independently of production, land use, and farming activity in general. In order to ensure a sufficient degree of land management, area payments should be decreased to an extent which is just necessary...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agent based systems; Direct payments; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98266
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THE AGRICULTURAL POLICY SIMULATOR (AGRIPOLIS) – AN AGENT-BASED MODEL TO STUDY STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE (VERSION 1.0) AgEcon
Happe, Kathrin; Balmann, Alfons; Kellermann, Konrad.
A central criticism common to agricultural economic modelling approaches for policy analy-sis is that they do not adequately take account of a number of characteristic factors of the agri-cultural sector. This concerns aspects like the immobility of land, heterogeneity of farms, in-teractions between farms, space, dynamic adjustment processes as well as dynamics of struc-tural change. In brief, modelling the complexity of the system has not been at the centre of interest. In terms of modelling complex economic systems, an agent-based modelling ap-proach is a suitable approach to quantitatively model and understand such systems in a more natural way. In the same way, this applies to the modelling of agricultural structures. In par-ticular, agent-based...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agent-based systems; Multi-agent systems; Policy analysis; Structural change; Simulation; Agentenbasierte Systeme; Politikanalyse; Dynamische An-passungsprozesse und Strukturwandel. Kurz; Multi-Agentensysteme; Struktur-wandel; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14886
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VERGLEICH DER BERGLANDWIRTSCHAFT IN POLEN UND DEUTSCHLAND AgEcon
Sroka, Wojciech; Happe, Kathrin.
This paper summarises results of a expert interviews on the state and development of agriculture and rural areas in selected municiapalities in the Polish Carapatian mountains and in the German Alps. Compared to the German Alps, the Polish region has a number of particularities originating from the different history and the transformation process. The overall development in the Polish region is still lagging behind. The implementation of measures of the Common Agricultural Policy has not yet led to significant structural changes in the Carpathian region. The surveyed experts have identified a positive perspective for the development of agriculture. They expect tourism and agriculture to be the main sources of income. A complete disappearance of agriculture...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Berglandwirtschaft; Entwicklungsperspektiven; Polen; Bayern; Mountainous areas; Development perspectives; Poland; Bavaria; Rolnictwo górskie; Perspektywy rozwoju; Polska; Bawaria; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91905
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