SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Elbehri, Aziz; Hertel, Thomas W..

An applied general equilibrium model with oligopoly and scale economies, based on detailed plant-level data, is used to contrast the impacts of the Morocco-EU free trade area (FTA) to multilateral trade liberalization on Morocco's economy. Simulation results show that the FTA agreement is likely to have adverse effects on Morocco due to: (a) deteriorating terms of trade, (b) reductions in output per firm in industries dominated by scale economies, (c) diversion of imports away from non-EU suppliers, and (d) potentially adverse effects on the aggregate demand for labor. We contrast this FTA with a multilateral liberalization scenario along the lines of those proposed under the Doha Development Round and find this more beneficial to Morocco, with overall...

A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN NORTH AMERICA

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28692

Hertel, Thomas W..

A Modified, Implicit, Directly Additive Demand System

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16834

Cranfield, John A.L.; Preckel, Paul V.; Hertel, Thomas W..

A recently developed demand system, nicknamed AIDADS, offers a more general approach to capturing consumption preferences. AIDADS generalizes the LES by assuming marginal budget shares vary indirectly with expenditure. AIDADS is limited by the fact that the subsistence parameters are constant across expenditure. We modify AIDADS by replacing the constant subsistence parameters with a function which varies with utility, and hence expenditure. The modified AIDADS (MAIDADS) allows subsistence levels to vary with expenditure. This model is applied to the 1996 International Consumption Project data. As these data span a wide range of expenditure levels, MAIDADS offers a viable alternative when estimating "global demand systems." Results suggest...

A Survey of Findings on the Poverty Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34145

Agriculture Productivity Growth: Is the Current Trend on the Track to Poverty Reduction?

Hertel, Thomas W..

The purpose of this survey is to review the available empirical evidence on the impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on poverty – considering both the impact of domestic and international liberalization. Since trade liberalization is generally an economywide phenomenon, with tariff cuts occurring across a wide range of commodities, we do not restrict ourselves to episodes where only agricultural trade was liberalized, although emphasis in this survey is given to agricultural trade policies. Furthermore, given the difficulty of isolating the effects of trade policies alone, we will also consider the impact of other types of external shocks which have the effect of changing the relative prices of tradeable and non-tradeable goods. By examining the...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Poverty; Rural development; Agriculture; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/110127

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Ivanic, Maros; Ludena, Carlos E.; Hertel, Thomas W..

In this study we evaluate the effect of annual productivity growth in agriculture over the 1991-2001 period on poverty in eleven developing countries. We compare this with the optimal pattern of productivity growth of comparable cost with the sole goal of maximizing poverty reduction. This comparison reveals that regional agricultural development is a viable option in the fight for poverty reduction.

Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?

Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19152

Verma, Monika; Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas W..

With the advent of the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda, as well as the Millennium Development Goals aiming to reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have attracted increasing attention. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reform due to the importance of food in the diets of the poor, relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as the heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be undetectable. This paper formally tests this “invisibility hypothesis” via...

Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective

Palavras-chave: Trade policy reform; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; Developing countries; Poverty headcount; Volatility; Stochastic simulation; Non-parametric hypothesis testing; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C68; F17; I32; Q17; R20.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61793

Anderson, Kym; Dimaranan, Betina V.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Martin, William J..

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper ®rst reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1997

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118006

Biofuel Growth: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts from Changes in Forest Carbon Stocks

Golub, Alla A.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Rose, Steven K.; Sohngen, Brent.

There is significant policy interest in liquid biofuels with appealing prospects for energy security, farm security, poverty alleviation, and climate change. Large-scale commercial biofuel production could have far reaching implications for regional and global markets – particularly those related to energy and land use. As such, large-scale biofuels growth is likely to have significant impacts on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper utilizes a CGE model with explicit biofuel, land, and energy markets. The model is able to estimate the effects on the broad range of input and output markets potentially affected globally by biofuels policies. One of the most controversial issues within the biofuels debate is potential indirect changes in land use...

Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications

Palavras-chave: Land use change; Biofuels; CGE model; Forest carbon stocks; GHG emissions; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47450

Thaeripour, Farzad; Hertel, Thomas W.; Tyner, Wallace E.; Beckman, Jayson F.; Birur, Dileep K..

The biofuel industry has been rapidly growing around the world in recent years. Several papers have used general equilibrium models and addressed the economy-wide and environmental consequences of producing biofuels at a large scale. They mainly argue that since biofuels are mostly produced from agricultural sources, their effects are largely felt in agricultural markets with major land use and environmental consequences. In this paper, we argue that virtually all of these studies have overstated the impact of liquid biofuels on agricultural markets due to the fact that they have ignored the role of by-products resulting from the production of biofuels. Feed by-products of the biofuel industry, such as Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) and...

Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6452

Hertel, Thomas W.; Tyner, Wallace E.; Birur, Dileep K..

The recent rise in world oil prices, coupled with heightened interest in the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, has led to a sharp increase in domestic biofuels production around the world. Previous authors have devoted considerable attention to the impacts of these policies on a country-by-country basis. However, there are also strong interactions among these programs, as they compete in world markets for feedstocks and ultimately for a limited supply of global land. In this paper, we evaluate the interplay between two of the largest biofuels programs, namely the renewable fuel mandates in the US and the EU. We examine how the presence of each of these programs influences the other, and also how their combined impact influences global markets and...

Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6526

Hertel, Thomas W.; Lobell, David; Verma, Monika.

This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of productivity shocks reflecting the impacts of climate on agricultural yields in 2030. These shocks, in turn, affect the global economy. The response of economic agents to climate change is the second source of uncertainty in our estimates. We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, we find that the responses of output and exports can be far more robust. This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative...

CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND

Palavras-chave: Climate Change Uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103691

Cranfield, John A.L.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Eales, James S.; Preckel, Paul V..

A newly developed demand system is used to estimate the response of food and food product demand to per capita expenditure changes. The resulting Engel elasticities are then used to project food and food product demand in 2020 assuming per capita expenditure and population changes. Results suggest that while food expenditure is projected to grow, it accounts for a smaller proportion of total expenditure. Further analysis indicates change in the composition of food demand away from a grain and towards livestock is projected to occur in lower income countries in 2020.

CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND POVERTY

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28673

Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D..

Even though much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. In this article, we focus on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at the forefront of climate change mitigation efforts in developing countries. In so doing, we offer some important insights that may help shape future policies as well as ongoing research in this area.

Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91437

Ahmed, Syud Amer; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Ramankutty, Navin; Rios, Ana R.; Rowhani, Pedram.

Climate volatility will increase in the future, with agricultural productivity expected to become increasingly volatile as well. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to the climate, rising climate volatility can have severe implications for poverty. We develop and use an integrated framework to estimate the poverty vulnerabilities of different socio-economic strata in Tanzania under current and future climate. We find that households across various strata are similarly vulnerable to being impoverished when considered in terms of their stratum’s populations, with poverty vulnerability of all groups higher in the 21st Century than in the late 20th Century. When the contributions of the different strata to the national poverty changes...

Climate volatility and trade policy in Tanzania

Palavras-chave: Climate; Volatility; Poverty vulnerability; Tanzania; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49358

Ahmed, Syud Amer; Hertel, Thomas W.; Martin, William J..

Climate volatility affects agricultural variability, and extreme climate outcomes have the potential to detrimentally affect food supply and prices in a given country. International trade has the potential to reduce the impacts of climate-induced food production variability, although it may further expose the country to international price volatility. This study focuses on Tanzania and finds that global production volatility currently has very little effect on domestic grain prices due to the country’s limited integration with the international grains market. Almost all the price volatility in grains is attributable to domestic production volatility. At the same time, an export ban that was a response to the 2007-2008 food price crisis increases potential...

Commodity Price Volatility and Nutrition Vulnerability

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61818

Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas W..

In this paper we examine the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional attainment of households at the nutritional poverty line in Bangladesh. We focus on the first two moments of the distribution of nutrition and consider the differential impacts across socio-economic groups within the country. We also examine the direction and magnitude of the shift in these moments as a result of implementation of special safeguards measures aimed at preventing import surges.

Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets

Palavras-chave: Price volatility; Calories; Vulnerability; Food consumption; Poverty; Household data; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49344

Hertel, Thomas W.; Beckman, Jayson F..

Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low – even negative correlation. However, the recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. The amount of corn utilized for ethanol production in the US has increased from 5% in 2001 to over one-third by the end of the decade. This increase has drawn corn previously sold to other uses (exports, food, feed), as well as acreage devoted to other crops (e.g., oilseeds and other grains). In addition, there has been an increase in the demand for production inputs, especially fertilizers, which are heavily energy-intensive. In short, the previous “biofuel decade” has led to significant changes in the US, and indeed the...

Cooperative and Investor-Oriented Firm Efficiency: A Multiproduct Analysis

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60857

Akridge, Jay T.; Hertel, Thomas W..

A multiproduct variable cost function was used to compare the efficiency of Midwestern cooperative and investor-oriented grain and farm supply firms. Results suggest that cooperatives are no less efficient in a variable cost sense than their investor-oriented counterparts. Concerning fixed input-variable cost elasticities, investor-oriented firms may be more effective in their use of plant and equipment, but cooperatives make more efficient use of other fixed inputs.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.

Ano: 1992

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46280

DECOMPOSING WELFARE CHANGES IN THE GTAP MODEL

Hertel, Thomas W.; Huff, Karen.

This paper develops a complete decomposition of the change in global welfare in the GTAP model. In particular, this money metric change is broken down into component parts, each of which relates to a quantity change interacting with a distortion in the model. This enables the user to assess, for example, how much of the gains from trade reform are attributable to a given commodity and/or a given region. The commodity and region specific changes in allocative efficiency can be further decomposed by transaction/tax instrument. We find that this greatly facilitates the presentation and analysis of results from GTAP. We motivate the derivation of this decomposition with the case of a one region, three commodity, analogue to the GTAP model. This permits us to...