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| Registros recuperados: 34 | |
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| Parcell, Joseph L.; Kastens, Terry L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| This study reviews articles using regression analysis published in the Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from 1994 to 1998 to determine agricultural economists' effectiveness in reporting and conveying research procedures and results. Based on the authors' experience of surveying articles for this study, several suggestions for reporting of results and how to better separate statistical from economic significance are offered. First, clearly define the dependent variable- preferably in the results table as well as within the text. Second, report parameter estimates in an interpretable form either in the results table or in a subsequent table. Third, report summary statistics. Fourth, report degrees of freedom conspicuously in the results table.... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31306 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| This study evaluates the attitudes of U.S. (Kansas) farmers regarding "free-trade" and "free-market" policy environments. In contrast to earlier studies, non-specific policy attitudes are evaluated. A direct measure of farm program benefits is also included. Attitudes vary significantly with farm and operator characteristics. Support for free trade was shown to decrease with education and experience, to increase for farms with relatively more rented land, and to increase as total farm wealth increased. Support for free-trade was also higher for crop farms. Farms receiving more government payments are less likely to favor a free-trade policy environment. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Producer attitudes; International trade; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15186 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| Cattle feeders appear irrational when they place cattle on feed when projected profit is negative. Long futures positions appear to offer superior returns to cattle feeding investment. Cattle feeder behavior suggests that they believe a downward bias in live cattle futures persists and that cattle feeders use different expectations than the live cattle futures market price when making placement decisions. This study examines feeder cattle placement determinants, comparing performance of expected hedgeable profit with past actual profit in explaining feeder cattle placements. Past actual profit is a more important placement determinant than expected profit based upon the live cattle futures market, even though hedgeable profit provides a superior forecast... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30754 |
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| Wilson, Christine A.; Featherstone, Allen M.; Kastens, Terry L.; Jones, John D.. |
| Agricultural lenders in today's environment face many challenges when evaluating the creditworthiness of farm borrowers. To address these challenges, a survey was conducted with financial institutions in Kansas and Indiana where agricultural lenders were asked for their response to hypothetical agricultural loan requests. Each loan request differed by the borrower's character, financial record keeping, productive standing, Fair Isaac credit bureau score, and credit risk. Lenders provided information about themselves and their financial institutions. The survey data obtained determine the relative importance of financial and non-financial information when analyzing agricultural loan applications. Tobit models are estimated to identify the borrower... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28678 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| Three procedures are used to test Fama semistrong from efficiency of harvesttime price of Kansas City July wheat futures from 1947 through 1995. The three methods are (a) testing for jointly significant parameter estimates on nonfutures explanatory variables in econometric forecasting models, (b) testing the relative accuracy between model-based forecasts and using deferred futures prices as forecasts, and (c) testing for abnormal profits associated with simulated futures trading signaled by the forecasts. Kansas City July wheat futures are generally efficient. Furthermore, relative to the efficiency associated with forecasts constructed one to two months before harvest, the efficiency associated with the five- to six-month period before harvest has... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31035 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Schroeder, Ted C.; Plain, Ronald L.. |
| This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features and accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accurate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate for crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either extension or USDA forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31180 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| Cattle feeders appear irrational when they place cattle on feed when projected profits are negative. Long futures positions appear to offer superior returns to cattle feeding investment. Cattle feeder behavior suggests that they believe a downward bias in live cattle futures persists and that cattle feeders use different information than the live cattle futures market price when making placement decisions. This paper examines feeder cattle placement determinants and compares performance of expected hedgeable profits with past actual profits in explaining feeder cattle' placements. Past actual profits are found to be more important placement determinants than expected profits based upon the live cattle futures market, even though hedgeable profits provide... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1993 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118159 |
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| Taylor, Mykel R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Crop basis; Current information; Naive forecast; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8625 |
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| Kastens, Terry L.; Jones, Rodney D.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| The forecasting accuracy of five competing naïve and futures-based localized cash price forecasts is determined. The third-week's price each month from 1987-96 is forecasted from several vantage points. Commodities examine include those relevant to Midwest producers: the major grains, slaughter steers, slaughter hogs, several classes of feeder cattle, cull cows, and sows. Relative forecasting accuracy across forecast method is compared using regression models of forecast error. The traditional forecast method deferred futures plus historical basis has the greatest accuracy- even for cull cows. Adding complexity to forecasts, such as including regression models to capture nonlinear bases or biases in futures markets, does not improve accuracy. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31187 |
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| Tonsor, Glynn T.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| This research evaluates the impact of using different starting conditions in estimating meat demand systems. Results suggest that as the econometric task becomes increasingly nonlinear, specification of starting conditions becomes increasingly important. This work demonstrates implications of failing to use the best available starting value conditions and how these implications vary with the complexity of the underlying econometric model of interest. Furthermore, this piece proposes a universal approach to be used by all applied econometric practioners to developing appropriate starting values for use in subsequent model estimation. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21252 |
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| Taylor, Mykel R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| Being able to accurately predict basis is critical for making marketing and management decisions. Basis forecasts can be used along with futures prices to provide cash price projections. Additionally, basis forecasts are needed to evaluate hedging opportunities. Many studies have examined factors affecting basis but few have explicitly examined the ability to forecast basis. Studies have shown basis forecasts based on simple historical averages compare favorably with more complex forecasting models. However, these studies typically have considered only a 3-year historical average for forecasting basis. This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Across most of the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19022 |
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| Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| The impact pre-harvest hedging and crop insurance strategies have on expected revenue and associated risk as well as how producers' risk attitudes affect optimal strategies was analyzed for Kansas wheat farms. No insurance, Catastrophic (CAT), Actual Production History (APH), and Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) were considered. Average revenue was similar across alternatives, but APH and CRC resulted in the least income variability. Risk reduction effects of hedging were small and the advantage of CRC over APH decreases as hedging increases. This historical study provides useful information; however, if future market conditions differ significantly from the past, optimal strategies may change. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Hedging; Revenue insurance; Risk management; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15133 |
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| Nivens, Heather D.; Kastens, Terry L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.. |
| In production agriculture, good management is demonstrated by profits that are persistenly greater than those of similar neighboring farms. This research examined the effects of management practices on risk-adjusted profit per acre for Kansas farms over 1990-1999. The management practices were price, cost, yield, planting intensity, and technology adoption (less-tillage). Cost management, planting intensity, and technology adoption had the greatest effect on profit per acre, and cash price management was found to have the smallest impact. If producers wish to have continuously high profits, their efforts are best spent in management practices over which they have the most control. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm management; Marketing; Risk; Technology adoption; Farm Management; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15507 |
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| Beaton, Aaron J.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.; Williams, Jeffery R.. |
| With increasingly thin margins and new technologies, it is important that farm managers know their cost of field operations on a per unit basis (e.g., acre, ton, bale). Accurate per unit costs give confidence when constructing enterprise budgets and evaluating new technologies, such as no-till. Custom rates are often used as a proxy for per unit costs; however, this research, using entropy and jackknife estimation procedures, found that custom rates understate total ownership and operating costs by approximately 25% for an average Kansas farm. Estimates from these models are then used to benchmark actual costs against expected cost. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Benchmark; Custom rates; Custom work; Entropy; Jackknife; Machinery costs; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Q10; Q12; C51; C60. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43720 |
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| Registros recuperados: 34 | |
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