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| Registros recuperados: 16 | |
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| Ledebur, Oliver von; Schmitz, Jochen. |
| Since 2000 a number of factors impacted agricultural markets drastically. Among these are structural changes in global demand and repeated supply constraints that supported the observed positive development of agricultural prices. Given the increasingly interdependent global markets, the question arises of in how far an isolated view of a single market, when analysing price volatility, is sufficient? The paper is a contribution to the debate on the recent commodity price bubble and the relationship among commodity futures markets for agricultural raw materials. More particularly, the transmission of price volatility between commodity future markets is analysed. The background question is whether and to what extent the volatility of agricultural commodity... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Commodity Futures; Corn; Time Series; Price volatility transmission; Multivariate GARCH; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58136 |
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| Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von. |
| Im Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen der Implementierung des MTR und der Abschaffung aller Exportsubventionen im Rahmen der Doha-Runde der WTO mit einem besonderen Augenmerk auf die Effekte im Milchsektor untersucht. Dazu werden Simulationen mit einem partiellen Marktmodell durchgeführt. Alle Milchprodukte einschließlich Rohmilch erfahren Preissenkungen, teilweise deutlich. Erwartungsgemäß sind die Auswirkungen der kombinierten Simulation von MTR und partieller Liberalisierung ausgeprägter als eine reine MTR Simulation. Variationsrechnungen bei dem besonders betroffenen Marktprodukt Butter verdeutlichen, dass bei zusätzlichen hohen Zollkürzungen der Nettoimport steigt. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
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| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14965 |
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| Niemi, Jyrki S.; Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra. |
| This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; European Union; Mercosur; Econometric models; Cointegration; International Relations/Trade; C22; Q17. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24606 |
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| Gomann, Horst; Kleinhanss, Werner; Kreins, Peter; Ledebur, Oliver von; Offermann, Frank; Osterburg, Bernhard; Salamon, Petra. |
| Zusammenfassung: Der Agrarministerrat hat im November 2008 zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) eine politische Einigung erzielt. Das Ziel der Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, aufbauend auf einer Wirkungsanalyse der Kommissionsvorschläge zum HC, die Konsequenzen der HC-Beschlüsse mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) im Vergleich zu einer Referenzsituation im Zieljahr 2015 zu untersuchen. In der Referenzsituation wird eine langfristig positive Entwicklung im Agrarbereich unterstellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in Deutschland nach den Modellergebnissen die Milcherzeugung nach... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Common Agricultural Policy; Model-based impact analyses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15; Q18. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102726 |
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| Gomann, Horst; Heiden, Michael; Kleinhanss, Werner; Kreins, Peter; Ledebur, Oliver von; Offermann, Frank; Osterburg, Bernhard; Salamon, Petra. |
| Zusammenfassung: Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachtung gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Common Agricultural Policy; Model-based impact analyses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15; Q18. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102725 |
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| Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr. |
| This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536 |
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| Ledebur, Oliver von; Schmitz, Jochen. |
| In this contribution, the development of price volatility on German agricultural markets is analyzed. We quantify the degree of price volatility for selected German agricultural markets and determine how it evolves over time and search for policy driven structural changes in volatility levels measured by the historical volatility. Based on annualised historical volatilities t test were performed to identify if the change in the volatility levels show any relationship to the process of reform of the CAP. An increase in volatility could be identified for the main German markets regulated by the Common Market Organisations. A positive relationship among the reform process of the CAP and the changes of the volatility levels could be identified particularly for... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Volatility; German agricultural markets; Agricultural policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q13; Q18. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122534 |
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| Kurzweil, Marianne; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra. |
| Along with multilateral agreements such as the WTO agreement, the EU evolved different trade agreements to induce European integration, perpetuate economic relations with former colonies and improve relations with developing, emerging and transitional countries by granting trade preferences. Common features of the EU preferential agreements are that they: cover general trade; allow a phasing-in period with a fast implementation in non-agricultural sectors (except for textiles); grant preferences for sensitive products of agri-food sectors (e.g. sugar, beef, bananas and dairy products) in terms of tariff-rate quotas (limited imports by reduced most-favoured nation rates); implement special safeguards, because the CAP is regarded as the ultimate objective;... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25130 |
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| Fock, Achim; Ledebur, Oliver von. |
| This paper analyzes agricultural trade developments in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) since the beginning of the transformation process, and estimates CEEC agricultural trade potentials. The competitiveness of the agricultural sector as a whole is quantified using revealed comparative advantage indices. These indicate a comparative advantage for the CEEC in the agricultural sector. This strength is likely to accelerate CEEC agricultural trade growth which started in 1993. Such a development could yield in high political pressure since some of the countries of the first EU accession round like Hungary or the Czech Republic show a high complementarity in their agricultural trade with EU. Some basic factors such as income, population and... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14914 |
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| Registros recuperados: 16 | |
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