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Registros recuperados: 23
Primeira ... 12 ... Última
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A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts AgEcon
Isengildina-Massa, Olga; MacDonald, Stephen; Xie, Ran.
This study evaluates all USDA cotton supply and demand estimates for the United States and China (including unpublished price forecasts) from 1985/86 through 2009/10 for accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal that at every stage of the forecasting cycle forecast smoothing was the most widespread and persistent type of inefficiency observed in most U.S. variables. Correlation with past errors indicated the tendency to repeat past errors in most cases. Tendency to overestimate growth was also found. Bias was uncommon and limited to several cases of overestimation of China’s exports and U.S. price and underestimation of China’s domestic use. While forecasts of China’s imports and endings stocks improved, U.S. price and ending stock forecast errors became...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Cotton; Forecast accuracy; Forecast efficiency; Forecast evaluation; Forecast smoothing; USDA forecasts; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122314
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China's Cotton Use Trimmed by Growing Efficiency and Slowing Economy AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Whitley, Sarah.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124209
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CHINA'S ROLE IN WORLD COTTON AND TEXTILE MARKETS AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Pan, Suwen; Somwaru, Agapi; Tuan, Francis C..
The growth of China's textile industry has been one of the dominant factors shaping world cotton and textile markets in recent years. Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, China's textile and apparel (T&A) exports have grown by more than 40 percent and China's cotton consumption has grown by 34 percent. By the end of 2003, China had nearly doubled its share of world T&A exports in less than a decade, to about 21 percent. T&A exports from China and other developing countries are constrained by quotas originally implemented by developed countries under the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA). Under the Uruguay Round's Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), these quotas have been gradually phased-out since...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20054
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Futures Basis for Cotton: Impact of Globalization and Structural Change AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A..
A model of commodity futures contract basis was developed based on Working’s theory of the price of storage. An error-correction model was estimated for the basis for the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) #2 cotton contract maturing in December during 2000-08. The model was also extended to incorporate the impact of changes in market activity that evolved as financial markets and commodity price behavior underwent significant changes after 2005. The model captured the inversion of basis following the collapse of China’s crop in 2003, but the shock realized during 2008 may have been in part driven by one-time events not included in the model. Estimates from the error-correction model suggest an extended period for the return of basis to equilibrium,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Basis; Futures markets; Cotton; Error-correction model; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49269
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Markets, Institutions, and the Quality of Agricultural Products: Cotton Quality in India AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Naik, Gopal; Landes, Rip.
The modern global textile industry requires cotton with strong and consistent fibers in order to produce high quality goods at the high speeds necessary to recover capital costs. The introduction of high volume instrument (HVI) measurement of cotton fiber quality has strengthened the link between cotton prices and attributes on world markets. The spread of genetically modified (GMO) cotton in India has driven India to the second ranked producer and exporter of cotton in the world. However, contamination and other quality problems are endemic to Indian cotton. Using a unique data set of Indian cotton prices and quality attributes from 5 Indian states, this study uses hedonic price modeling to demonstrate that the linkages between cotton quality and price...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61854
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Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Change by China: Global Impacts on Agricultural Prices AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Seeley, Ralph.
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/15/07.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9692
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PERSPECTIVES ON COTTON GLOBAL TRADE REFORMS AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Somwaru, Agapi.
World cotton prices fell to nearly unprecedented levels during the 2001/02 marketing year, causing distress to cotton producers and exporters worldwide. In a number of developing countries highly dependent on cotton for export earnings or where cotton is the primary cash crop, this distress was particularly acute. Global trade barriers to cotton are widespread, leading to some concern about the relationship between these trade barriers and global welfare. In particular, with the Doha Development Agenda's negotiations underway, discussion about the impact of trade barriers on the cotton sectors of developing countries has become more intense. A static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model finds that removing cotton tariffs and other trade...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21902
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Progress and Problems Estimating China's Cotton Supply and Demand AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8045
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THE UNITED STATES AND WORLD COTTON OUTLOOK AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Johnson, James D.; Meyer, Leslie A.; Skelly, Carol.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33161
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The United States and World Cotton Outlook AgEcon
Skelly, Carol; MacDonald, Stephen; Johnson, James D.; Neff, Steven; Meyer, Leslie A..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8068
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THE UNITED STATES AND WORLD COTTON OUTLOOK AgEcon
Johnson, James D.; MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Skelly, Carol.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32977
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The United States and World Cotton Outlook AgEcon
Johnson, James D.; MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Neff, Steven; Skelly, Carol.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37420
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THE UNITED STATES AND WORLD COTTON OUTLOOK AgEcon
Johnson, James D.; MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Skelly, Carol.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33521
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THE UNITED STATES AND WORLD COTTON OUTLOOK AgEcon
Johnson, James D.; MacDonald, Stephen; McKeivier, Teresa; Meyer, Leslie A.; Skelly, Carol.
Paper and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32819
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Toward a Consumer Economy in China: Implications of Changing Wage Policies for U.S. Cotton Exports AgEcon
MacDonald, Stephen; Pan, Suwen; Hudson, Darren; Tuan, Francis C..
The effect of a Chinese minimum wage increase on China’s textile market as well as on the world cotton market is evaluated. Based on a Nonlinear Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (NQAIDS) model of China’s textile demand, the results suggest that the income elasticity for textiles is around 0.6 in China, and that apparel is less price responsive than home textiles and other textile products. Simulation results suggest that a minimum wage increase would raise Chinese domestic textile consumption and lower Chinese textile exports. Most of the decline in textile exports by China is offset by expansion in other countries’ domestic textile production and results in a slight increase in world cotton mill utilization and higher clothing prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nonlinear Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (NQAIDS); Cotton; Clothing; China; Trade; Industrial policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Q17; Q18; R34; R21.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103615
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U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change AgEcon
Isengildina-Massa, Olga; MacDonald, Stephen.
The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. This study concluded that a structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and that world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices. China’s trade and production policy also continues to be an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Cotton; Price; Demand; Trade; Structural change; Farm programs.; Demand and Price Analysis; Q100; Q110; Q130.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49324
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U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market; Forecasting and Structural Change AgEcon
Isengildina-Massa, Olga; MacDonald, Stephen.
This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China’s trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Cotton; Price; Demand; Trade; Structural change; Farm programs.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55950
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USDA PERSPECTIVE ON THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON AgEcon
Flemings, Jon Ann; MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Skelly, Carol.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33258
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USDA PERSPECTIVE ON THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON AgEcon
Levin, Andrew; MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Skelly, Carol.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33423
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USDA PERSPECTIVE ON THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON AgEcon
Meyer, Leslie A.; MacDonald, Stephen; Skelly, Carol; Johnson, James D..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33048
Registros recuperados: 23
Primeira ... 12 ... Última
 

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