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Druon, Jean-noel; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Hanke, Alex R.; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Damalas, Dimitrios; Ticina, Vjekoslav; Quilez-badia, Gemma; Ramirez, Karina; Arregui, Igor; Tserpes, George; Reglero, Patricia; Deflorio, Michele; Oray, Isik; Karakulak, F. Saadet; Megalbfonou, Persefoni; Ceyhan, Tevfik; Grubisic, Leon; Mackenzie, Brian R.; Lamkin, John; Afonso, Pedro; Addis, Piero. |
An ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach was used to predict the potential feeding and spawning habitats of small (5-25kg, only feeding) and large (> 25kg) Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT), Thunnus thynnus, in the Mediterranean Sea, the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The ENM was built bridging knowledge on ecological traits of ABFT (e.g. temperature tolerance, mobility, feeding and spawning strategy) with patterns of selected environmental variables (chlorophyll-a fronts and concentration, sea surface current and temperature, sea surface height anomaly) that were identified using an extensive set of precisely geo-located presence data. The results highlight a wider temperature tolerance for larger fish allowing them to feed in the northern –... |
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Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00308/41953/41803.pdf |
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Payne, Mark R.; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.; Mackenzie, Brian R.; Batchelder, Harold P.; Cormon, Xochitl; Eddy, Tyler D.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Jones, Miranda C.; Link, Jason S.; Neubauer, Philipp; Ortiz, Ivonne; Queirós, Ana M.; Paula, José Ricardo. |
Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and... |
Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Initialization uncertainty; Parametric uncertainty; Projections; Scenario uncertainty; Structural uncertainty; Uncertainty.. |
Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00301/41220/40392.pdf |
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