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Registros recuperados: 10
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A GLOBAL MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TIMBER MARKETS AgEcon
Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert; Sedjo, Roger A..
Several papers have now estimated the impact of climate change on national timber markets, but few studies have measured impacts globally. Further, the literature on impacts has focused heavily on changes in productivity and has not integrated movements of biomes as well. Here, a dynamic model of ecological change and economic change is developed to capture the impact of climate change on world timber markets. Climate change is predicted to increase global timber production as producers in low-mid latitude forests react quickly with more productive short-rotation plantations, driving down timber prices. Producers in mid-high latitude forests, in contrast, are likely to be hurt by the lower prices, dieback, and slower productivity increases because of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31044
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A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland AgEcon
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert.
This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa, using a Ricardian cross-sectional approach. Relying on farm data from an 11-country survey of over 9500 farmers, annual net revenue is regressed on climate and other variables. The study confirms that current climate affects the net revenues of farms across Africa. Applying these results to possible future climates reveals that dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Even as early as 2020, climate change could have strong negative impacts on currently dry and hot locations. By 2100, dryland crop net revenues could rise by 51% if future warming is mild and wet but fall by 43% if future climates are hot and dry. The crop net revenues of currently irrigated farms are likely to be...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Agriculture; Valuation; Africa; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q12; Q25.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56965
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An Analysis of Global Timber Markets AgEcon
Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert; Sedjo, Roger A.; Lyon, Kenneth S..
This paper presents a model of global timber markets that captures the evolution of a broad array of forest resources and timber market margins over time. These margins include the inaccessible northern and tropical margins, plantation establishment, and timberland management. A baseline case is presented and discussed. Five alternative scenarios are then presented. These scenarios allow us to consider several important questions about timber market behavior and the future supply of industrial fiber: (1) What happens along the northern and the tropical inaccessible margins? (2) What role do timber plantations play? and (3) How do shifts in management intensity interact with market forces? The baseline case suggests that both prices and harvests rise over...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Global timber markets; Forest plantations; Model; Forecast; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q10; Q21; Q23; Q24.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10449
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Analyzing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Global Timber Markets AgEcon
Sohngen, Brent; Sedjo, Roger A.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Lyon, Kenneth S..
In this paper, we show how ecological and economic models can be linked to determine the economic impact of climate change on global timber markets. We begin by discussing some of the important issues relevant to global impact analyses such as this. We then outline our general modeling framework and discuss the particular models that will be used. Finally, we discuss some of the important issues involved with linking the two types of models.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate change; Economic model; Timber; Timber market; Dynamic; Optimal control; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q10; Q23; Q24.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10462
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Animal husbandry in Africa: Climate change impacts and adaptations AgEcon
Seo, S. Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert.
This paper uses a cross-sectional approach to analyze the impacts of climate change on animal husbandry and the way farmers adapt. The study is based on surveys of almost 5000 livestock farmers across ten countries in Africa. A traditional Ricardian regression finds that the livestock net revenues of large farms in Africa are more sensitive to temperature than those of small farms. Cross-sectional analysis also reveals that large farms (but not small farms) have fewer animals per farm in warmer places. Farmers tend to select beef cattle and chickens in cool climates and goats and sheep in hot climates. Using the Ricardian results and examining climate scenarios for 2060 and beyond, the net revenues of small farms are predicted to increase as much as 120%...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Livestock; Impact; Adaptation; Africa; Livestock Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q12; Q25.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56968
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Climate change impacts on Latin American farmland values: the role of farm type AgEcon
Seo, S. Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert.
This paper examines climate change impacts on South American agriculture using a set of Ricardian regressions estimated across different samples of farms in South America. Regressions are run for the whole sample and for subsamples of crop-only, mixed, and livestock-only farms. The results indicate that climate sensitivity varies a great deal across each type of farm. The analysis also reveals that the impacts will vary substantially across South America. The hot and wet Amazon and Equatorial regions are likely to lose the most from warming scenarios whereas the more temperate high elevation and southern regions of South America will likely gain.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Agriculture; South America; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53872
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Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change AgEcon
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert.
This paper examines the impact of climate change on primary crops grown in Africa. An innovative approach is presented that bridges the gap between agro-economic and traditional Ricardian models. We label it a ‘structural Ricardian model’. It first captures the type of crop a farmer will select and then examines the conditional net revenue of that crop. The model is estimated using a sample of over 5000 farmers across 11 countries in Africa. The analysis finds that farmers shift the crops they plant to match the climate they face. Studies that fail to account for crop switching will overestimate the damages from climate change and underestimate the benefits.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Crops; Africa; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56970
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Estimating Carbon Supply Curves for Global Forests and Other Land Uses AgEcon
Sedjo, Roger A.; Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert.
This study develops cumulative carbon 'supply curves' for global forests utilizing an dynamic timber supply model for sequestration of forest carbon. Because the period of concern is the next century, and particular time points within that century, the curves are not traditional Marshallian supply curves or steady-state supply curves. Rather, the focus is on cumulative carbon cost curves (quasi-supply curves) at various points in time over the next 100 years. The research estimates a number of long-term, cumulative, carbon quasi-supply curves under different price scenarios and for different time periods. The curves trace out the relationship between an intertemporal price path for carbon, as given by carbon shadow prices, and the cumulative carbon...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon supply curves; Sequestration; Timber; Forests; Model; Global warming; Prices; Markets; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q10; Q15; Q21; Q23; Q24.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10663
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Estimating Ricardian Models With Panel Data AgEcon
Massetti, Emanuele; Mendelsohn, Robert.
Many nonmarket valuation models, such as the Ricardian model, have been estimated using cross sectional methods with a single year of data. Although multiple years of data should increase the robustness of such methods, repeated cross sections suggest the results are not stable. We argue that repeated cross sections do not properly specify the model. Panel methods that correctly specify the Ricardian model are stable over time. The results suggest that many cross sectional methods including hedonic studies and travel cost studies could be enhanced using panel data.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Impacts; Agriculture; Hedonic Models; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q1; Q12; Q51; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115727
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HOW CHINA’S FARMERS ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? AgEcon
Wang, Jinxia; Mendelsohn, Robert; Dinar, Ariel; Huang, Jikun.
This paper examines how farmers have adapted to the current range of climates across China. A cross sectional method is used to analyze irrigation choice and crop choice across 8,405 farmers in 28 provinces in China. We find that both irrigation and crop choice decisions are climate sensitive. Chinese farmers are more likely to irrigate when facing lower temperatures and less precipitation. Farmers in warmer places are more likely to choose oil crops, maize, and especially cotton and wheat, and are less likely to choose vegetables, potatoes, sugar and especially rice and soybeans. In wetter locations, farmers are more likely to choose soybeans, oil crops, sugar, vegetables, cotton and especially rice, and they are less likely to choose potato, wheat...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Adaptation; Irrigation Choice; Crop Choice; China; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51803
Registros recuperados: 10
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