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EVALUATING THE EFFICIENCY OF THE WHEAT TARIFF REGIME IN SOUTH AFRICA AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H..
A drastic change in the marketing system of wheat in South Africa has taken place over the past decade. For the first time an important tariff on wheat was implemented in the form of a variable import levy. Traditionally, countries have implemented variable import levy schemes in order to protect domestic price guarantees by means of determining a reference price, which was generally above the domestic guaranteed price, below which imports were not allowed into the country. In this paper the efficiency of the Wheat Tariff Regime in South Africa is examined, after it has been operational for the past seven years.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18079
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Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models AgEcon
Strauss, P.G.; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F..
This article presents a deterministic farm-level model developed to link to an existing partial equilibrium sector-level model of the grain and livestock sectors of South Africa. The objective is to create a linked system of models consisting of a sector- and farm-level model with the capability to analyse the likely effects of changes in policies and markets at both the sector and representative farm level in South Africa. A representative farm in the Free State Province is used to validate the farm-level model. The farm-level model is used to simulate a baseline as well as two scenarios of the representative farm for the period 2003 to 2010. Results indicate that the farm-level model simulates the representative farm rather accurately compared to...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44028
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Forecasting the market outlook for the South African maize and sorghum sector using econometric modeling AgEcon
Poonyth, Daneswar; van Zyl, Johan; Meyer, Ferdinand H..
In this study, an econometric model of the South African maize and sorghum sector is estimated. Using the developed model, a market outlook for the two major grain sectors – maize and sorghum - for 1999/00 to 2006/07, is generated under the specified assumptions. Results indicate that for both maize and sorghum, consumption will gradually increase over time. In spite of varying areas of maize and sorghum being harvested, total production will also gradually increase over time due to increases in particularly yields.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54221
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IMPACT ANALYSIS OF FOOD POLICY RESPONSE ON HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA’S MAIZE SUBSECTOR AgEcon
Vermeulen, Hester; Ndibongo Traub, Lulama; Meyer, Ferdinand H..
This study quantifies the possible income and nutritional impact of the recent commitment by the South African Department of Agriculture to increase budgetary spending on agricultural development. Three levels of models are utilized. The first, a large-scale partial equilibrium model, generated an outlook for maize grain under two possible future scenarios; the first is the baseline scenario under which it is assumed no additional government investment in the agricultural sector takes place, the second allows for the impact of an investment within the maize subsector large enough to increase local maize production by 15% above the baseline. The second model, a rational distributed lag model, links the grain sector to the maize meal down-stream market....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial Equilibrium Model; Vertical Price Transmission; Household Food Security.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Marketing; C22; C32; C53; D1; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51396
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Integrating Agricultural Input Expenditure into a South African Agricultural Sector’s Partial Equilibrium Model AgEcon
Gebrehiwet, Yemane; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F..
Agricultural inputs expenditure has not been widely incorporated in most partial equilibrium models. Moreover, input costs are treated exogenous and the recursive link between input and output side of the sector is overlooked in few of the models that attempts to incorporate input expenditures. The study has addressed both issues by integrating agricultural input expenditures into the South African sectoral partial equilibrium model by endogenising input costs and recursively linking both input and output side of the agricultural sectors to enhance the results of a standard partial equilibrium model in analysing the effect of policies on agricultural sector.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Farm Management.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97050
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Macro-Micro Linkages and Rural Livelihood Improvements in Africa AgEcon
Mapila, Mariam A.T.J.; Kirsten, Johann F.; Meyer, Ferdinand H..
This study develops a multi-equation partial equilibrium model of the Malawi maize market which is linked sequentially to a local maize economy to show that the skepticism surrounding the use of innovation systems in agricultural research in Africa is not unfounded. The results demonstrate that participating households have the potential to be negatively affected by greater linkages with the market given policy shocks. Therefore in order for the innovation systems perspective in agricultural research to be effective in sustaining robust livelihoods in Africa and to ensure sustainable utilization of natural resources; interventions must be implemented only after systematic analysis of the potential consequences of the resultant macro-micro linkages; thus...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy modeling; Agricultural Innovation Systems; Macro-micro approach; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123641
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Measuring Integration and Efficiency in Maize Grain Markets: The Case of South Africa and Mozambique AgEcon
Traub, Lulama Ndibongo; Myers, Robert J.; Jayne, Thomas S.; Meyer, Ferdinand H..
Price transmission between the South African market and other regional markets is not as straightforward, despite South Africa’s role of a surplus producer for the region. There appears to be a host of local factors that must be taken into account in order to anticipate the likely level of regional food prices. This article assesses the degree of market integration and the speed of price adjustment to spatial price differentials between the SAFEX maize price in South Africa and maize grain and maize meal prices in Maputo, Mozambique. The findings of this study indicate that under certain trading regimes, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between Mozambican and South African maize grain prices. This implies that any large deviations, within...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Price transmission; Market integration; Cointegration; Trade regimes; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96644
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Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Kirsten, Johann F..
This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25432
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Model closure and price formation under switching grain market regimes in South Africa AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Kirsten, Johann F..
This paper develops the structure and closure of an econometric regime-switching model within a partial equilibrium framework that has the ability to generate reliable estimates and projections of endogenous variables under market switching regimes. Models used in policy evaluation usually either ignore the possibility of regime switching using just a single method of price determination based on average effects, or incorporate highly stylised components that may not reflect the complexities of a particular market. This paper proposes an approach that the authors believe allows the incorporation of features of regime switching in a multisector commodity level model that capture salient features of the South African market and therefore are able to produce...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10139
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MODELLING LONG-TERM COMMODITIES: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINE INDUSTRY WITHIN A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK AgEcon
Cutts, Michela; Reynolds, Sanri; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Vink, Nick.
Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Wine market; South Africa; Partial equilibrium model; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37324
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Modelling the impact of the ‘Fast Track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe’s maize sector AgEcon
Kapuya, T.; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F..
This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on maize production in Zimbabwe through the construction of a partial equilibrium model that depicts what could have happened if no further policy shifts had taken place after 2000. The resimulated baseline model was used to make projections based on the various trends of exogenous variables in 2000. This means that the model generated an artificial data set based on what the maize market would have looked like under a set of the pre-2000 existent policy conditions. The ‘fast track’ land reform policy was thus assessed based on the performance of the baseline model using a range of “what if” assumptions. Commercial area harvested was 39 % less than what could have been...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: ‘fast track’ land reform programme; Partial equilibrium model; Maize; Zimbabwe; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95958
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Modelling the impacts of macro-economic variables on the South African biofuels industry AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Strauss, P.G.; Funke, Thomas.
The production of biofuels from agricultural commodities has received much attention in recent years. Apart from a few private initiatives, biofuels have not seen a large scale, commercial production in South Africa to date. This article sketches a basic picture of the economic feasibility of biofuel production in South Africa, without any form of government support, at 2006 prices. It then takes the analysis a step further and with the aid of a set of scenarios, different potential outcomes, due to a range of possible policy implementation measures, are discussed and the results documented. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) sector model is used to simulate the impact of various options on the potential biofuels industry and other...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44027
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Modelling the impacts of the industrial biofuels strategy on the South African agricultural and biofuel subsectors AgEcon
Funke, Thomas; Strauss, P.G.; Meyer, Ferdinand H..
The potential impact of the current South African industrial biofuels strategy on the economic feasibility of biofuel production in South Africa is analysed and discussed. The analysis is then taken a step further by means of a scenario to analyse the potential impacts of higher global prices on the feasibility of a local biofuel industry. The BFAP sector model, a partial equilibrium model, is used to simulate the various impacts over the period 2009 to 2017. This study shows that the incentives and commitments, as presented through the strategy, are not sufficient to get a local biofuel industry up and running and make it sustainable in the long term.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54988
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MODELLING THE MARKET OUTLOOK AND POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR THE WHEAT SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F.; Poonyth, Daneswar.
In this study, the structure of the South African wheat market is analysed using economic theory and econometric modelling techniques. The developed model is used to make baseline projections regarding the supply and use of wheat in South Africa and to analyse the impacts of various policy alternatives on the wheat sector for the period 2002 – 2008. Results indicate that after an initial decline in the area harvested in 2003, the area harvested will increase over time. Domestic consumption will gradually decrease over time, which will result in lower levels of imports and higher level of exports. Three policy scenarios are analysed, the elimination of the import tariff for wheat, a twelve percent depreciation in the exchange rate, and the convergence of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19096
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Modelling the wheat sector in South Africa AgEcon
Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Kirsten, Johann F..
In this study, the structure of the South African wheat market is analysed using economic theory and econometric modelling techniques. The model is used to make baseline projections regarding the supply and use of wheat in South Africa and to analyse the impacts of various policy alternatives on the wheat sector for the period 2004–2008. Results indicate that the area harvested in the summer as well as winter region will decrease over time. Domestic consumption will marginally increase over time, which will result in higher levels of imports. The ability of the model to simulate policy shocks is illustrated by means of simulating the impact of the elimination of the wheat import tariff on the wheat sector.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31692
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THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FOOD PRICE INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA AgEcon
Kirsten, Johann F.; Vink, Nick; Scheepers, D.; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Calcaterra, M.; Jenkins, Lindie.
This paper reports on a study that investigated the increase in food prices in South Africa. It is set against the scenario of an increasing inflation rate since September 2001. The June 2002 STATSSA figures estimated the annual inflation rate (CPIX) at 8.8% with food inflation being the major contributor with an annual increase of 14%. The high unemployment and poverty rate in South Africa has already lead to concerns about the negative impact of these increases on the cost of living for the poorest. In this paper we show that the sharp depreciation of the exchange rate towards the end of 2001 had a major impact on the producer price of maize – one of the key agricultural commodities because of its role as a staple food and as an input in the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Political Economy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18075
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