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| Morley, Samuel A.. |
| The first section of this paper reviews the most recent evidence on inequality in 18 Latin American countries and shows that in all but four the changes in inequality over the 1990s were small and insignificant. The distribution depends on the ownership and rate of return on assets, particularly human capital. In the short run changes in these two variables tend to be offsetting-growth widens skill-differentials which is regressive, but advances in education are progressive. The two effects roughly cancel each other out absent severe macroeconomic shocks or revolutionary changes in the rules of the game. The paper then summarizes various recent papers as well as the author’s recent work on the impact of structural reforms on inequality. That work shows... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16312 |
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| Morley, Samuel A.; Nakasone, Eduardo; Pineiro, Valeria. |
| In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in Honduras. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. We first show that trade liberalization under CAFTA has a positive effect on growth, employment and poverty but the effect is small. What really matters for Honduras is the assembly (maquila) industry. CAFTA liberalized the rules of origin for imports into this industry. That raises the growth rate of output by 1.4% and reduces poverty by 11% in 2020 relative to what it would otherwise have been. Increasing capital formation through an increase in foreign investment in... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: CAFTA; Honduras; Growth; Poverty; CGE model; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42349 |
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| Morley, Samuel A.; Nakasone, Eduardo; Pineiro, Valeria. |
| In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in El Salvador. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. The model shows that CAFTA has a small positive effect on growth, employment and poverty. Tariff reduction under CAFTA adds about .2% to the growth rate of output up to 2020. Liberalizing the rules of origin for maquila has a bigger positive effect on growth and poverty mainly because it raises the demand for exportables produced by unskilled labor. We model the foreign investment effect by assuming that capital inflows go directly to capital formation. This raises the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: CAFTA; El Salvador; Growth; Poverty; CGE model; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42356 |
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| Morley, Samuel A.. |
| This paper is a description and an analysis of trade liberalization under CAFTA. It shows that in the short run the impact of the agreement is likely to be small. Since the U.S. already grants tariff-free access under the CBI, trade liberalization in the CAFTA treaty appears to be asymmetric, with most of the tariff reductions being granted by the Central American countries. That is misleading for two reasons. First there really were some significant tariff barriers in the United States for agricultural commodities under the CBI. Many of these are removed under CAFTA. Second, the current favorable special treatment of the five Central American countries under the CBTPA and the CBI will expire in 2008 if CAFTA is not implemented. CAFTA makes permanent the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55401 |
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| Morley, Samuel A.. |
| Growth in the first post-reform decade in Latin America has been disappointing, largely because of a severe slowdown after 1995 in the countries in South America. Per capita income grew at only .9% per year between 1995 and 1999 compared to 2.7% for 1950-80 and 1.5% for the nineties as a whole. What has gone wrong? The paper finds that neither falling investment, volatile capital inflows nor the implementation of structural reforms is the problem. Indeed relative growth performance across countries is positively related to the amount of reform they adopted. Instead the problem seems to relate to a significant reduction in the growth rate of exports since 1997. Mexico, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic did well, but every country in South America has... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16310 |
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