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| Planque, Benjamin; Mullon, Christian; Arneberg, Per; Eide, Arne; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Hoel, Alf Håkon; Niiranen, Susa; Ottersen, Geir; Sandø, Anne Britt; Sommerkorn, Martin; Thébaud, Olivier; Thorvik, Thorbjørn. |
| Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Barents Sea; Future studies; Multiple perspectives; Participatory fisheries management; Storylines; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00485/59621/62647.pdf |
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| Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Fernandes, Jose A.; Mullon, Christian; Cheung, William; Trenkel, Verena; Lam, Vicky. |
| It is accepted that world’s fisheries are not generally exploited at their biological or their economic optimum. Most fisheries assessments focus on the biological capacity of fish stocks to respond to harvesting and few have attempted to estimate the economic efficiency at which ecosystems are exploited. The latter is important as fisheries contribute considerably to the economic development of many coastal communities. Here we estimate the overall potential economic rent for the fishing industry in the North Atlantic to be B€ 12.85, compared to current estimated profits of B€ 0.63. The difference between the potential and the net profits obtained from North Atlantic fisheries is therefore B€ 12.22. In order to increase the profits of North Atlantic... |
| Tipo: Text |
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| Ano: 2014 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00188/29973/28426.pdf |
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| Planque, Benjamin; Mullon, Christian. |
| Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Chaos theory; Constraints; Nonlinear systems; Participatory modelling; Uncertainty; Viability theory. |
| Ano: 2020 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00585/69686/67759.pdf |
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