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Registros recuperados: 33
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10 years of transition in Ukraine agriculture: An analysis of productivity and efficiency of enterprises AgEcon
Lissitsa, Alexej; Odening, Martin; Babycheva, Tamara.
This paper analyzes efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change of large agricultural enterprises during their transition to a market economy in Ukraine. In this case the efficiency is calculated by data envelopment analysis and the productivity change is measured by the Malmquist Productivity Change Index in the period between 1990 and 1999. On average, TFP declined by 6% annually, dropping a total 42%. The main reason for the observed TFP decline is a decrease in technical efficiency, which is found to be remarkably significant. At the same time there is a high variation among individual enterprises: their distribution of efficiency scores widens, which indicates that the farms diverge with respect to their economic performance. The Tobit...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Эффективность; Общая продуктивность фактора; Анализ оболочки данных; Малмквист-индекс изменения общей продуктивности фактора; Переходный период; Украина; Effizienz; Totale Faktor Produktivität; Data Envelopment Analysis; Malmquist Productivity Change Index; Transition; Ukraine; Efficiency; Total Factor Productivity; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; Productivity Analysis; Q12; D25; O1; O4; P3.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92168
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ASSESSMENT OF MARKET RISK IN HOG PRODUCTION USING VALUE-AT-RISK AND EXTREME VALUE THEORY AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Hinrichs, Jan.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of different VaR models in the context of risk assessment in hog production. Potential pitfalls of traditional VaR models are pinpointed and proposals to solve them are analyzed. After a brief description these methods are used to calculate the VaR of the hog finishing margin under German market conditions. In particular we apply Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to our data and compare the results with historical simulation (HS) and the variance-covariance method (VCM). Hill's estimator is used to determine the tail index of the extreme distribution of the gross margin in hog finishing and farrow production. A bootstrap method proposed by Danielsson et al. (1999) is adopted to choose the optimal...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19907
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Closing down the Farm: An Experimental Analysis of Disinvestment Timing AgEcon
Maart, Syster Christin; Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin; Schade, Christian.
Agrarian structures are often characterized by some kind of economic inertia. It is particularly puzzling why unprofitable farms persist over time instead of being sold. In this paper we analyze the exit decision of farmers using the real options approach. The validity of the real options theory is assessed by means of laboratory experiments. Our results show that real options models are able to predict actual disinvestment decisions better than traditional investment theory. Nevertheless, the observed disinvestment reluctance was even more pronounced as predicted by theory. This finding suggests the inclusion of bounded rationality into normative disinvestment models.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Disinvestment; Real Options; Experimental Economics; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; C91; D81; D92.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114375
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Coping with Systemic Risk in Index-based Crop Insurance AgEcon
Shen, Zhiwei; Odening, Martin.
The implementation of index-based crop insurance is often impeded by the existence of systemic risk of insured losses. We assess the effectiveness of two strategies for coping with systemic risk: regional diversification and securitization with catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The analysis is conducted in an equilibrium pricing framework which allows the optimal price of the insurance and the number of traded contracts to be determined. We also explore the role of basis risk and risk aversion of market agents. The model is applied to a hypothetical area yield insurance for rice producers in northeast China. If yields in two regions are positively correlated, we find that enlarging the insured area leads to an increasing insurance premium. Unless capital market...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Systemic risk; Risk pooling; Securitization; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q14.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122555
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Der Optionswert von Sachinvestitionen - Theoretischer Hintergrund und Bewertungsmethoden AgEcon
Odening, Martin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Financial Economics.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18828
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Der Wechsel vom konventionellen zum ökologischen Landbau: Eine investitionstheoretische Betrachtung AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver; Utesch, Volker.
The objective of this paper is to explore the potential of the real options approach for analyzing farmers’ choice to switch from conventional to organic farming. Understanding the determinants of this decision is relevant in particular for agricultural policy makers when predicting the response of farmers to support programs. After a brief review of the existing literature on barriers to the adoption of organic farming a theoretical model is presented that allows one to incorporate two main features of the adoption decision, namely irreversibility and uncertainty of the returns. The real options model quantifies investment multiples that trigger the adoption of organic farming. Compared with neoclassical models it suggests an inertia of the respective...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Real options; Switching regression; Hysteresis; Farm Management.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97451
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Die Quantifizierung von Marktrisiken in der Tierproduktion mittels Value-at-Risk und Extreme-Value-Theory AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Hinrichs, Jan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18826
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Die Quantifizierung von Marktrisiken in der Tierproduktion mittels Value-at-Risk und Extreme-Value-Theory AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Hinrichs, Jan.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of different Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the context of risk assessment in hog production. The paper starts with a description of traditional VaR models, i.e. Variance-Covariance-Method (VCM) and Historical Simulation (HS). We address two well known problems, namely the fat tailedness of return distributions and the time aggregation of VaR forecasts. Afterwards, Extreme-Value-Theory (EVT) is introduced in order to overcome these problems. The previously described methods are then used to calculate the VaR of hog production under German market conditions. It turns out that EVT, VCM, and HS lead to different VaR forecasts if the return distributions are fat tailed and if the forecast horizon is...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Value-at-risk; Extreme-value-theory; Risk in hog production; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98092
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EFFIZIENZ UND RENTABILITÄT VON BIOGASANLAGEN AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Filler, Gunther.
Die Verbreitung von Technologien zur Biogaserzeugung hängt maßgeblich von deren einzelbetrieblicher Wirtschaftlichkeit ab. Der vorliegende Beitrag bestimmt die technische und die ökonomische Effizienz sowie die Rentabilität von Biogasanlagen auf der Basis empirischer Daten, die aus einer Befragung des KTBL hervorgehen. Die Effizienzmessung erfolgt mittels Data Envelopment Analyse (DEA). Es zeigt sich, dass die Effizienz der untersuchten Anlagen eine große Variabilität aufweist. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Produktionstechnik nicht in allen Betrieben voll beherrscht wird. Entscheidend für die Effizienz von Biogasanlagen ist weniger deren Größe als vielmehr eine gute Auslastung. Mit Blick auf die Rentabilität stellen die Kosten für die Bereitstellung der...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7571
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Effizienz und totale Faktor-produktivitat in der ukrainischen Landwirtschaft im Transformationsprozess AgEcon
Lissitsa, Alexej; Odening, Martin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7391
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Empirische Validierung von Realoptionsmodellen AgEcon
Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver; Huettel, Silke.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18825
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ERTRAGS- UND PREISINSTABILITÄT AUF AGRARMÄRKTEN IN DEUTSCHLAND UND DER EU AgEcon
Artavia, Marco; Deppermann, Andre; Filler, Gunther; Grethe, Harald; Haeger, Astrid; Kirschke, Dieter; Odening, Martin.
C2_2
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agrarpolitik; Preisvolatilität; Ertragsschwankungen; Unsichereit; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93956
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Financial constraints in economic transition: Empirical evidence from Ukrainian large farms AgEcon
Zinych, Nataliya; Odening, Martin; Huettel, Silke.
This paper addresses the question of financial constraints in Ukrainian agriculture in transition. The main objective is to reveal the evidence of the both phenomena, soft budget constraints and credit rationing, investigating investment behaviour of large farms in Ukraine. Our empirical analysis is based on unbalanced panel data containing 529 agricultural enterprises from three Ukrainian regions between 2001 and 2005. Estimates of the Euler investment equation for several sub-samples reveal a dissimilar level of financial constraints. We confirm the presence of the soft financial environment (soft budget constraints) for the Ukrainian large farms being in an unconstrained financial regime. The farms belong to this regime if they receive credits after...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Transition agriculture; Investment; Soft budget constraints; Credit rationing; Ukraine; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7834
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Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs’ and non-entrepreneurs’ disinvestment choices AgEcon
Sandri, Serena; Schade, Christian; Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin.
Disinvestment, in the sense of project termination and liquidation of assets including the cession of a venture, is an important realm of entrepreneurial decision-making. This study presents the results of an experimental investigation modeling the choice to disinvest as a dynamic problem of optimal stopping in which the patterns of decisions are analyzed with entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs. Our experimental results reject the standard net present value approach as an account of observed behavior. Instead, most individuals seem to understand the value of waiting. Their choices are weakly related to the disinvestment triggers derived from a formal optimal stopping benchmark consistent with real options reasoning. We also observe a pronounced...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Real-Options; Disinvestment; Exit Behavior; Experimental Economics; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59518
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How Costly are (Agricultural) Investments during Economic Transition? A Critical Literature Appraisal AgEcon
Zinych, Nataliya; Odening, Martin.
Investment theory
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Investment; Transition; Credit constraints; Soft budget constraints; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; O16; Q14; P23.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50319
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Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance AgEcon
Xu, Wei; Odening, Martin; Musshoff, Oliver.
This article develops an Indifference Pricing model for a weather derivative that is traded over the counter. The model is used to calculate ask and bid prices for a put option on a weather index in Germany. We find that under moderate risk aversion the maximal bid prices of grain producers exceed the minimal sell prices of insurers only for a few regions and crops, due to the presence of basis risk. Another finding is that the actuarially fair price may lead to wrong conclusions about the market potential of weather insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather insurance; Indifference pricing model; Basis risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9267
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Investment Reluctance: Irreversibility or Imperfect Capital Markets? Evidence from German Farm Panel Data AgEcon
Huettel, Silke; Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin.
Investment behavior at the firm level is characterized by lumpy adjustments and frequent periods of inactivity. Low investment rates are particularly puzzling in transition economies where an urgent need of modernization exists. The literature offers two explanations for. Firstly, neo-institutional finance theory focuses on the impacts of imperfect capital markets on investment decisions showing that the limited availability of financial funds may confine firms’ investments. Secondly, real options theory asserts that the interaction of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility may also result in investment reluctance. In this paper we suggest a generalized model that combines imperfect capital markets and real options effects. We also offer an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Investment decision; Irreversibility; Uncertainty; Q-model; Capital market imperfections; Generalized tobit model; Transition; Financial Economics; D81; D92; O12.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9826
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LASSEN SICH ERTRAGSRISIKEN IN DER LANDWIRTSCHAFT GLOBAL DIVERSIFIZIEREN? AgEcon
Liu, Xiaoliang; Xu, Wei; Odening, Martin.
C2_1
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ertragsrisiken; Copulas; Diversifikation; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93955
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Markteffekte medienwirksamer Lebensmittelskandale: Eine Ereignisstudie AgEcon
Rommel, Jens; Neuenfeldt, Sebastian; Odening, Martin.
Das Vertrauen der Konsumenten in gesunde Nahrungsmittel wird regelmäßig durch Lebensmittelskandale erschüttert. Im Zusammenhang mit der Diskussion von Maßnahmen, die seitens der Produzenten und/oder des Staates ergriffen werden, um Nahrungsmittelsicherheit zu gewährleisten, stellt sich die Frage, wie der Markt, genauer gesagt: die Verbraucher, auf das Bekanntwerden von Lebensmittelskandalen reagieren. In dem Beitrag wird der Frage nachgegangen, ob und wie sich Lebensmittelskandale, die eine mediale Verbreitung gefunden haben, auf Preise und Verbrauchsmengen ausgewählter tierischer Agrarerzeugnisse auswirken. Als methodischer Ansatz werden Ereignisstudien gewählt, die eine einfache Möglichkeit bieten, die Marktwirkungen sachlich und zeitlich klar...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Lebensmittelskandal; Ereignisstudie; Fleischmarkt; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53261
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Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model AgEcon
Ritter, Matthias; Musshoff, Oliver; Odening, Martin.
Weather risk is one of the main causes for income fluctuation in agriculture. Since 1997, the economic consequences of weather risk can be insured with weather derivatives, which are offered for many different weather events, such as temperature, rainfall, snow or hurricanes. It is well known that the hedging effectiveness of weather derivatives is interfered by the existence of geographical basis risk, i.e., the deviation of weather conditions at different locations. In this paper, we explore how geographical basis risk of rainfall based derivatives can be reduced by regional diversification. Minimizing geographical basis risk requires knowledge of the joint distribution of rainfall at different locations. For that purpose, we estimate a daily multi-site...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Management; Weather risk; Regional diversification; Portfolio weights; Risk and Uncertainty; G11; Q14; G32.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122527
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