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| Registros recuperados: 32 | |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Tack, Jesse B.. |
| Farm income is highly variable due to annual price and yield uncertainties. The federally subsidized crop insurance program is an important tool for managing this risk, and has grown from a relatively modest program to one that encompasses the majority of productive cropland in the country. The success of this program depends on identification of actuarially fair insurance premium rates, which in turn depends on accurate estimation of farm-level yield distributions. We use the confidential U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency (RMA) panel dataset to estimate farm-specific distributions of yields and actually fair crop insurance premiums. Our ongoing work includes using the difference between our estimated actually fair premiums and RMA's to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Yield; Crop Insurance; Policy; Mixed Model; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103405 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D.. |
| This paper presents preliminary evidence on the effect of crop insurance on fertilizer and chemical inputs in agriculture. Our estimates are based on two sources of identification that emerge from a policy change concerning insurance subsidies that approximately doubled total premiums and the share of acres insured. First, we compare per-acre applications on these inputs from the same farms before and after the policy change. Second, we compare farm-level changes in input applications to differential changes in coverage growth induced by the policy change. We are able to make this second comparison because farms in some regions were more heavily insured than others before the policy change so they were not required to increase coverage in order to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21895 |
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| Ahearn, Mary Clare; Collender, Robert N.; Diao, Xinshen; Harrington, David H.; Hoppe, Robert A.; Korb, Penelope J.; Makki, Shiva S.; Morehart, Mitchell J.; Roberts, Michael J.; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi; Vandeveer, Monte; Westcott, Paul C.; Young, C. Edwin. |
| The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act on recipient households, and assess land, labor, risk management, and capital market conditions that can lead to links between decoupled payments and production choices. Each study contributes a different perspective to understanding the response of U.S. farm households and production to decoupled income transfers. Some use new microdata on farm households collected through USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), initiated in 1996, and its predecessor survey. These data are used to compare household and producer behavior and outcomes before and after the FAIR Act. Other studies use applied or conceptual models to... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33981 |
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| Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| Using a unique farm-level panel data set derived from three U.S. Agricultural Censuses, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model to examine the effect of direct government payments on the survival of farm businesses, paying particular attention to the differential effect of payments across farm size categories. For identification the study exploits variation in payments resulting from historical differences in 'base acreage' in otherwise similar farms. We find an increase in government payments has a small but statistically significant positive effect on the rate of farm survival, and the magnitude of this effect increases with farm size. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19248 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D.. |
| We use administrative data from the Federal crop insurance program to examine how yield distributions change as farmers cycle into and out of the program. We are able to do this by linking many years of crop insurance data by individual farm conditioning observed yields on the particular county and year in which they are observed. Armed with millions of observations, we examine many states and five major crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and cotton. We find little evidence that yield distributions are affected by insurance. An exception is rice in Arkansas, where insurance shifts the distribution markedly downward. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9828 |
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| O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| We use a large increase in Federal crop insurance subsidies as a natural experiment to identify the impact of risk on acreage and diversification decisions. Subsidy increases induced greater crop insurance coverage, which reduced farmers' financial risks. Did this change in the risk environment alter production decisions? We merged crop insurance participation data with farm-level Agricultural Census data from 1992 and 1997 to examine how harvested acreage and diversification changed in response to the policy-induced change in insurance coverage. The difference in differences empirical approach controls for unobservable heterogeneity and our results are robust across multiple definitions of our key variables and various fixed effects. We find that... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19397 |
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| Lubowski, Ruben N.; Bucholtz, Shawn; Claassen, Roger; Roberts, Michael J.; Cooper, Joseph C.; Gueorguieva, Anna; Johansson, Robert C.. |
| This report examines evidence on the relationship between agricultural land-use changes, soil productivity, and indicators of environmental sensitivity. If cropland that shifts in and out of production is less productive and more environmentally sensitive than other cropland, policy-induced changes in land use could have production effects that are smaller-and environmental impacts that are greater-than anticipated. To illustrate this possibility, this report examines environmental outcomes stemming from landuse conversion caused by two agricultural programs that others have identified as potentially having important influences on land use and environmental quality: Federal crop insurance subsidies and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the Nation's... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Crop insurance; Erosion; Extensive margin; Farm policy; Imperiled species; Land use; Land-use change; Land quality; Nutrient loss; Soil productivity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33591 |
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| Claassen, Roger; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| We examine changes in land use caused by the large increase in crop insurance premium subsidies under the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance and Reform Act (FCIRA). We use a conditional logit model to estimate changes in six major land uses from 1992 and 1997 as a function of the change in expected return to crop insurance. Our data on individual land parcels across the entire coterminous United States enable identification of the extent, location, and physical characteristics of the land brought into and retained in production as a result of the crop insurance policies. Results indicate the additional crop insurance premium subsidies increased cultivated cropland area on the order of 1.9 million acres (0.6%), consistent with the lower range of previous... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19546 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Key, Nigel D.. |
| Over the last twenty five years commodity crop farms have steadily declined in number and grown in average size, and production has shifted to larger operations. During the same period, the share of agricultural payments going to large farms has increased, in large part because payments are tied to actual or historical crop production. This study evaluates whether payments from federal farm programs may have contributed to the concentration of farmland. Using zip code-level data constructed from the micro files of the 1987-2002 Agriculture Censuses the study estimates the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in weighted median farmland area. A semi-parametric generalized additive model controls for location and initial... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21097 |
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| Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| Economic theory suggests several possible mechanisms through which direct government farm payments might influence the pattern of structural change in agriculture. This study estimates what effect farm payments have had on farm structure using farm-level panel data from the 1987, 1992, and 1997 Agricultural Censuses. Results suggest that the size of per-acre payments received in the past are associated with a small and weakly positive change in farm size between consecutive censuses, but that payments are significantly correlated with an increased likelihood of farm survival between consecutive periods. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22106 |
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| Lubowski, Ruben N.; Vesterby, Marlow; Bucholtz, Shawn; Baez, Alba; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| This publication presents the results of the latest (2002) inventory of U.S. major land uses, drawing on data from the Census, public land management and conservation agencies, and other sources. The data are synthesized by State to calculate the use of several broad classes and subclasses of agricultural and nonagricultural land over time. The United States has a total land area of nearly 2.3 billion acres. Major uses in 2002 were forest-use land, 651 million acres (28.8 percent); grassland pasture and range land, 587 million acres (25.9 percent); cropland, 442 million acres (19.5 percent); special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas), 297 million acres (13.1 percent); miscellaneous other uses, 228 million acres (10.1 percent); and urban land, 60... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Land use; Land-use change; Agricultural land; Nonagricultural land; Cropland; Forest-use land; Forestland; Pasture; Rangeland; Rural residential land; Special uses; Urban land; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7203 |
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| Berck, Peter; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| Hotelling's theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time. However, technical progress in resource extraction, environmental constraints, or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices. Thus, there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future. The prediction of product prices by time-series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as differenced or trend stationary. Dickey-Fuller and Lagrange Multiplier tests are used to show that the series are differenced stationary. Long- and short-sample series are tested. Trend-stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices. The result from differenced-stationary modeling is... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Arima models; Natural resources; Simulation methods; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43908 |
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| Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| The first part of this paper presents a simple labor supply and production model wherein farmers with diminishing marginal utility of income derive nonpecuniary benefits from farming. We use the model to show how lump-sum or decoupled government payments could have positive and substantial effects on the supply of agricultural products. The result is simple and intuitive: payments allow those who enjoy farming to continue farming while maintaining a reasonably high living standard. Without payments, a lower living standard leads to higher marginal utility of income, making higher off-farm wages more desirable than lower on-farm wages plus non-pecuniary benefits from farming. Farmers respond to a reduction in payments by shifting their labor off-farm... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Decoupled payments; Government payments; Nonpecuniary benefits; Labor supply; Trade; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9831 |
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| Livingston, Michael J.; Roberts, Michael J.; Rust, John. |
| We examine crop choice as a dynamic optimization problem over an infinite time horizon, taking into account the effects over time that corn-soybean rotations have on soil quality, which manifest in yield and therefore profit impacts. We show how the efficient decision rule depends on model parameters and how it compares to those characteristic of static models of supply. The model is parameterized for a representative acre of Iowa cropland and used to predict actual crop choices in a panel of over 6500 Iowa plots during 1979–1997 surprisingly well. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6213 |
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| Registros recuperados: 32 | |
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