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A note on taxes, prices, wages, and welfare in general equilibrium models AgEcon
Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen.
"January 1999." Includes bibliographical references (p. 11-12).
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Trade policy; Welfare economics; Equilibrium (Economics); Financial Economics.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97541
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A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS AgEcon
Lofgren, Hans; Harris, Rebecca Lee; Robinson, Sherman.
Over the past decade, the increasing power and reliability of microcomputers and the development of sophisticated software designed specifically for use with them has led to significant changes in the way quantitative food policy analysis is conducted. These changes cover most aspects of the analysis, ranging from the collections and analysis of socioeconomic data to the conduct of model-based policy simulations. The venue of the computations has shifted from off-site mainframes dependent on highly trained operators and significant capital investment in supporting equipment, to desktop and laptop computers dependent only on the occasional availability of electricity. This means that it is now feasible to quickly transfer new techniques between IFPRI and...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Economic aspects; Mathematical models; Food supply; Mathematical models; Equilibrium (Economics); Mathematical models; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42483
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After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa AgEcon
Lewis, Jeffrey D.; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen.
"September 1999." "MERRISA, Macro Economic Reforms and Regional Integration in Southern Africa"--Series t.p. Includes bibliographical references (p. 26-28). Published as: Lewis, Jeffrey D.; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen. 2003. Free trade agreements and the SADC economies. Journal of African Economies 12(2): 156-206.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Trade policy -- Africa.; Free trade.; South Africa; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97532
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Alternative Industrial Development Paths for Indonesia: Sam and CGE Analyses AgEcon
Bautista, Romeo M.; Robinson, Sherman; El-Said, Moataz.
"May 1999." Includes bibliographical references (p. 15). Published as Bautista, Romeo M., Sherman Robinson and Moataz El-Said. 2001. Alternative industrial development paths for Indonesia: SAM and CGE analyses. In J. Behrman, M. Dutta, S.L. Husted, P. Sumalee, C. Suthiphand and P. Wiboonchutikula, eds, Restructuring Asian for Economics the New Millennium,. Vol 9B, pp. 773-790. Elsevier Science/North Holland.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Social accounting; Indonesia; Industrialization; International Development.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97538
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ASSESSING IMPACTS OF DECLINES IN THE WORLD PRICE OF TOBACCO ON CHINA, MALAWI, TURKEY AND ZIMBABWE AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Robinson, Sherman; Thomas, Marcelle; Wobst, Peter.
This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16273
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Bringing Agriculture into the GATT: Assessing the Benefits of Trade Liberalization AgEcon
Abbott, Philip C.; Johnston, Brian G.; Blandford, David; Kilkenny, Maureen; Bochniarz, Henryka; Magiera, Stephen L.; Dixit, Praveen M.; McGregor, Robert M.; Frohberg, Klaus; Robinson, Sherman; Hickenbotham, Terry L.; Roningen, Vernon O.; House, Robert M..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1988 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49873
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COPPER CRISIS AND AGRICULTURAL RENAISSANCE IN ZAMBIA: AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS AgEcon
Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James.
Zambia's strong dependence on copper exports has suppressed other tradables sectors, indicative of a Dutch disease phenomenon. The current copper crisis will have strong economic effects, possibly reversing such Dutch disease effects. We use a computable general equilibrium model built around a 1995 social accounting matrix to simulate the short- and long-run effects of two scenarios that reflect the current crisis, a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of copper mining. Compared to the short run, the long run is characterized by more flexibility in production technology and capital allocation. Both scenarios require a significant reduction in the "non-copper" trade deficit, absorption, and household consumption. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Zambia; Copper; Structural adjustment; Agriculture; General equilibrium; International Development; C68; O55; Q17; Q32.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25805
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CROSS-COUNTRY TYPOLOGIES AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES TO END HUNGER IN AFRICA AgEcon
Zhang, Xiaobo; Johnson, Michael; Resnick, Danielle; Robinson, Sherman.
A key motivation behind this study is to explore the many patterns of interactions between economic and non-economic factors in sub-Saharan Africa (hereafter referred to as Africa) in order to map out a typology of different types of country situations and thus, corresponding future options to develop strategies to end hunger and poverty in the region. The study builds on the earlier work of Irma Adelman and Cynthia Morris who argued that economic development is a dynamic, multi-faceted, nonlinear, and malleable process, a process explained by the many complex interactions between social, economic, political and institutional changes. As in Adelman and Morris, we use factor analysis to reduce a large number of variables into a manageable set of key...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Development.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60175
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ECONOMY-WIDE EFFECTS OF EL NINO / SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN MEXICO AND THE ROLE OF IMPROVED FORECASTING AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AgEcon
Harris, Rebecca Lee; Robinson, Sherman.
Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16318
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EMPIRICAL MODELS, RULES, AND OPTIMIZATION: TURNING POSITIVE ECONOMICS ON ITS HEAD AgEcon
Cattaneo, Andrea; Robinson, Sherman.
This paper considers supply decisions by firms in a dynamic setting with adjustment costs and compares the behavior of an optimal control model to that of a rule-based system which relaxes the assumption that agents are explicit optimizers. In our approach, the economic agent uses believably simple rules in coping with complex situations. We estimate rules using an artificially generated sample obtained by running repeated simulations of a dynamic optimal control model of a firm’s hiring/firing decisions. We show that (i) agents using heuristics can behave as if they were seeking rationally to maximize their dynamic returns; (ii) the approach requires fewer behavioral assumptions relative to dynamic optimization and the assumptions made are based on...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16270
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Estimating a social accounting matrix using cross entropy methods AgEcon
Robinson, Sherman; Cattaneo, Andrea; El-Said, Moataz.
"October 1998." Includes bibliographical references (p. 18). Published as: Robinson, Sherman, Andrea Cattaneo and Moataz El-Said. 2001. Updating and estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using cross entropy methods. Economic Systems Research, Vol. 13, No.1, pp. 47-64.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Social accounting -- Mozambique; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97553
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Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Entropy Difference Methods AgEcon
Robinson, Sherman; El-Said, Moataz.
"September 1997." Includes bibliographical references (leaf 12).
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Social accounting -- Mozambique; Estimation theory; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97559
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Estimating Income Mobility in Colombia Using Maximum Entropy Econometrics AgEcon
Morley, Samuel A.; Robinson, Sherman; Harris, Rebecca Lee.
Caption title. "May 1998." Includes bibliographical references (p. 19).
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Income distribution; Econometric models; Colombia; Maximum entropy econometrics; Income mobility; Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97546
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Facing the Development Challenge in Mozambique: An Economywide perspective AgEcon
Tarp, Finn; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Herlberg, Rasmus.
This study responds to some of Mozambique's basic development challenges and provides qualitative and quantitative insights for policymaking from an economywide perspective. The report highlights the importance of agricultural development showing agriculture's large sectoral multiplier effects and that applying scarce capital to agriculture is generally more effective than applying it to industry and services. A novel CGE model is developed and used in a series of analyses focused on the impact and design of economic policy. Issues addressed are aid dependency, biases in price incentives facing the agriculture sector, improvement in agricultural technology and marketing margins, risk-reducing behavior and gender roles in agricultural production, and food...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: International Development.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16541
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FOOD SECURITY AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS IN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION: A CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF COUNTRY GROUPS AgEcon
Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Thomas, Marcelle; Robinson, Sherman; Cattaneo, Andrea.
An important issue in WTO trade negotiations is whether further liberalization of trade and agricultural policies may help or hinder food security in WTO member countries, especially the developing countries. The WTO recognizes various classifications of countries: developed, developing, least developed (LDC) and net food importing developing (NFIDC). How well do these categories capture issues of food security? This paper employs various methods of cluster analysis (including an approach based on fuzzy sets) and data for 167 countries to identify groups of countries categorized according to five measures of food security: food production per capita, the ratio of total exports to food imports, calories per capita, protein per capita, and the share of the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food security; WTO; Cluster analysis; Fuzzy classification; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16261
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FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND THE SADC ECONOMIES AgEcon
Lewis, Jeffrey D.; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen.
Countries in Southern Africa have engaged in a variety of trade liberalization initiatives. For example, South Africa and the European Union (EU) negotiated a free trade agreement (FTA) in 1999. The EU unilaterally opened its markets to the least developing countries, which includes some of the countries in the region, in 2001 under its “Everything But Arms” (EBA) initiative. Although not formally established, countries in the region have discussed a SADC FTA. In this paper, we use a multi-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of trade liberalization on countries, sectors, and factor. To focus on trade flows among countries in Southern Africa, the model includes seven countries in the region (South Africa, Botswana,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16275
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GAMS CODE FOR ESTIMATING A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (SAM) USING CROSS ENTROPY (CE) METHODS AgEcon
Robinson, Sherman; El-Said, Moataz.
This paper documents the computer code implementing the CE-SAM estimation technique in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). It defines the estimation problem in a deterministic setting; extends the approach to include a stochastic treatment of errors in control totals; summarizes the equations describing CE technique for estimating a consistent SAM starting from an inconsistent data set estimated with error; and provides the GAMS code.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Entropy; Cross entropy; Social accounting matrices; SAM; GAMS; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16293
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GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MEASURES OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY BIAS IN FIFTEEN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AgEcon
Jensen, Henning Tarp; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn.
In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the extent to which indirect taxes, tariffs, and exchange rates affected relative price incentives for agricultural production in a representative sample of 15 developing countries in the 1990s. Empirical studies from the 1980s, using partial equilibrium methodologies, supported the view that policies in many developing countries imparted a major incentive bias against agriculture. Eliminating this bias was one of the goals of policy reform strategies, including structural adjustment programs, supported by the World Bank and others; and many countries undertook such reforms in the 1990s. In our sample, general equilibrium analysis indicates that, in the 1990s, the economywide system of indirect taxes,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16289
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GENETIC ENGINEERING AND TRADE: PANACEA OR DILEMMA FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? AgEcon
Nielsen, Chantal Pohl; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen.
Advocates of the use of genetic engineering techniques in agriculture contend that this new biotechnology promises increased productivity, better use of natural resources and more nutritious foods. Opponents, on the other hand, are concerned about potentially adverse implications for the environment and food safety. In response to consumer reactions against genetically modified (GM) foods in some countries - particularly in Western Europe - crop production is being segregated into GM and non-GM varieties. This paper investigates how such changes in the maize and soybean sectors may affect international trade patterns, with particular attention given to different groups of developing countries.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16272
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GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS, TRADE, AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AgEcon
Nielsen, Chantal Pohl; Thierfelder, Karen; Robinson, Sherman.
This paper analyzes price, production and trade consequences of changing consumer preferences regarding the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in food production. The analytical framework used is an empirical global general equilibrium model, in which the entire food processing chain – from primary crops through livestock feed to processed foods – is segregated into genetically modified (GM) and non-GM lines of production. This model is used to analyze the implications of widespread use of genetically engineered crops in some regions whilst consumers in Western Europe and High- income Asia adopt a critical attitude toward GM foods. Two different representations of consumer preference changes are illustrated: (1) a change in price sensitivity:...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16287
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