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Registros recuperados: 30
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Agricultural Market Performance in the EU after the 2000 and 2003 CAP Reform An Ex-post Evaluation based on AGMEMOD AgEcon
Banse, Martin; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP Reform; Ex-post evaluation; Agricultural sector modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99366
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DER EUROPAISCHE MILCHMARKT ZWISCHEN REFORM UND LIBERALISIERUNG AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von.
Im Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen der Implementierung des MTR und der Abschaffung aller Exportsubventionen im Rahmen der Doha-Runde der WTO mit einem besonderen Augenmerk auf die Effekte im Milchsektor untersucht. Dazu werden Simulationen mit einem partiellen Marktmodell durchgeführt. Alle Milchprodukte einschließlich Rohmilch erfahren Preissenkungen, teilweise deutlich. Erwartungsgemäß sind die Auswirkungen der kombinierten Simulation von MTR und partieller Liberalisierung ausgeprägter als eine reine MTR Simulation. Variationsrechnungen bei dem besonders betroffenen Marktprodukt Butter verdeutlichen, dass bei zusätzlichen hohen Zollkürzungen der Nettoimport steigt.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14965
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Der Markt für Milch AgEcon
Kurzweil, Marianne; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98088
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Der Markt für Milch AgEcon
Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98695
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Der Markt für Milch AgEcon
Roth, Thomas; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98111
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Der Markt für Milch AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Kurzweil, Marianne.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97423
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Economic background of families – is it vital for food decisions? A case study of school milk orders in Germany AgEcon
Weible, Daniela; Buergelt, Doreen; Christoph, Inken B.; Peter, Guenter; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123985
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EINE LOGIT-ANALYSE ZUR DIFFERENZIERUNG VON KÄUFERN UND NICHT-KÄUFERN VON SCHULMILCH IN DEUTSCHLAND AgEcon
Peter, Guenter; Salamon, Petra; Christoph, Inken B.; Weible, Daniela; Burgelt, Doreen.
Vor dem Hintergrund eines sinkenden Schulmilchkonsums in Deutschland stellt sich generell die Frage, welche Faktoren für die Kaufentscheidung von Schulmilch wichtig sind und, ob unterschiedliche Konsummuster für einzelne Gruppen existieren. Dieser Beitrag erweitert bestehende ökonometrische Erklärungsansätze um Schüler- und Haushaltscharakteristika. Dazu werden auf der Grundlage der Discrete Choice-Theorie zwei Konsummuster, die Gruppe der Schulmilchbesteller und die Gruppe der Nicht-Besteller, betrachtet. Mit Hilfe eines Logit-Modells werden Einflussfaktoren analysiert, die über das Konsummuster entscheiden. Als wichtige Faktoren kristallisieren sich die befürwortenden und ablehnenden Einstellungen der Schulkinder und ihrer Eltern gegenüber Milch und...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Schulmilch; Logit-Modell; Nachfrageanalyse; School milk; Logit model; Demand analysis; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115358
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EU Dairy Quota Reform – AGMEMOD Scenario Analysis AgEcon
Chantreuil, Frederic; Donnellan, Trevor; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salamon, Petra; Tabeau, Andrzej A.; Bartova, Lubica.
This study provides an in-depth model based quantitative analysis of the implications of the dairy policy reform on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU27, EU15, EU12 and the individual MS. The objectives of the study are threefold: 1. to assess the implications of changing policy and market conditions on EU agriculture with special emphasis on milk quota phasing out and export subsidy removal by using a modelling tool; 2. to carry out policy relevant scenarios reflecting deregulation (e.g. quota abolition), changes in quota and price levels, different types and levels of direct payments; and 3. to analyse the implications of policy reform scenarios and to draw appropriate policy recommendations. Based on an overview...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Milk Quota; Policy Analysis; Partial Equilibrium Modelling.; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43655
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EU ENLARGEMENT - A NEW DIMENSION AgEcon
Brockmeier, Martina; Herok, Claudia Anna; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget. To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: EU enlargement; Common Agricultural Policy; EU budget; GE-modeling; Political Economy; D58; E62; F15; O52; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25893
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EU ENLARGEMENT TO TURKEY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE SHAPED BY CHANGES IN MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AgEcon
Fellmann, Thomas; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Salamon, Petra.
The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Turkey; EU enlargement; Agricultural markets; Macro economy; AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung; Türkei; EU Erweiterung; Agrarmärkte; Makroökonomie; AGMEMOD; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114507
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EU-Trade Agreements - What Are They Dealing With? AgEcon
Kurzweil, Marianne; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25144
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Expansion of Mercosur's Agricultural Exports to the EU: An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Flows AgEcon
Niemi, Jyrki S.; Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Ledebur, Oliver von; Salamon, Petra.
This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; European Union; Mercosur; Econometric models; Cointegration; International Relations/Trade; C22; Q17.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24606
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Handels- und Budgeteffekte der WTO-Agrarverhandlungen in der Doha-Runde: Der revidierte Harbinson-Vorschlag AgEcon
Brockmeier, Martina; Salamon, Petra.
A great deal of attention is currently being paid to the discussion of the reform of global agricultural trade. In this paper, the effects of the revised Harbinson paper (March 2003) are analysed with an extensively extended GTAP model. With the help of a base run, projections are implemented in the form of economic developments as well as already enacted EU policy reforms and measures (Agenda 2000, Mid-Term Review, EU enlargement, EBA agreement) from 1997 to 2014. The base run is compared with a scenario simulating the Doha Round of the WTO based on the revised draft of the Harbinson proposal. The difference between the base run and the model scenario provides information on the effects on EU trade and budget. The revised Harbinson paper leads to a...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: WTO negotiations; Doha Round; Harbinson paper; GTAP model; Agricultural trade; EU budget; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97452
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Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Beschlüsse AgEcon
Gomann, Horst; Kleinhanss, Werner; Kreins, Peter; Ledebur, Oliver von; Offermann, Frank; Osterburg, Bernhard; Salamon, Petra.
Zusammenfassung: Der Agrarministerrat hat im November 2008 zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) eine politische Einigung erzielt. Das Ziel der Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, aufbauend auf einer Wirkungsanalyse der Kommissionsvorschläge zum HC, die Konsequenzen der HC-Beschlüsse mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) im Vergleich zu einer Referenzsituation im Zieljahr 2015 zu untersuchen. In der Referenzsituation wird eine langfristig positive Entwicklung im Agrarbereich unterstellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in Deutschland nach den Modellergebnissen die Milcherzeugung nach...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Common Agricultural Policy; Model-based impact analyses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102726
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Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge AgEcon
Gomann, Horst; Heiden, Michael; Kleinhanss, Werner; Kreins, Peter; Ledebur, Oliver von; Offermann, Frank; Osterburg, Bernhard; Salamon, Petra.
Zusammenfassung: Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachtung gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Health Check; Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik; Modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung; Common Agricultural Policy; Model-based impact analyses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; Q15; Q18.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102725
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How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Chantreuil, Frederic; Donnellan, Trevor; Erjavec, Emil; Esposti, Roberto; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Dol, Wietse; Salputra, Guna.
The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent existing heterogeneity of agricultural systems by linking together individual EU Member State models, an aggregated EU model and several accession countries into one single model, while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy change across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from significant communication and administration requirements, to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Linking models; Policy analysis; Partial equilibrium modelling; Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97709
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How to Derive Market Impacts of the Luxembourg Agreement on the German Beef Market - A Synthetic Uniform Model versus an Econometric Country Specific Model AgEcon
Salamon, Petra.
The paper discusses two partial equilibrium models, one is a synthetic model (GAPsi) and the other an econometrically estimated model (AG-MEMOD). While the synthetic model incorporates only price impacts and some shifts, the econometric model also reflects other influencing factors. Price formation includes policy measures as price wedges, or as explaining variables in key price equations or price transmission equations, which is also true when premiums and decoupling are regarded. When the Luxembourg Agreement is simulated, our example of beef shows that these model differences induce deviations in model results, especially concerning prices and trade.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; CAP; Luxembourg Agreement; Projections; Econometric estimation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24570
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Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis AgEcon
Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; Ledebur, Oliver von; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr.
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536
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Individual and context factors determine gender-specific behaviour: the case of school milk in Germany AgEcon
Salamon, Petra; Weible, Daniela; Buergelt, Doreen; Christoph, Inken B.; Peter, Guenter.
A German federal research was established to analyse determinants on school milk demand. Among those, individual factors, like children’s eating habits, attitudes, preferences and socio-economic variables were considered but also contextual factors like attitudes and habits of class teachers and school variables were regarded; and more, price effects on demand were derived via a price experiment. As girls order significantly less school milk than boys this paper aims to analysis gender-specific decisions. In the analysis, a database is used in which individual order information are merged with survey results concerning pupils, parents, class teachers, school principals and school milk managers of the sampled schools. A multilevel analysis is applied,...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Gender differences; Multilevel analysis; School milk; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123532
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