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Registros recuperados: 16
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AD-DICE: An Implementation of Adaptation in the DICE Mode AgEcon
de Bruin, Kelly C.; Dellink, Rob B.; Tol, Richard S.J..
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMs have not explicitly included the option of adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the adaptation...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Integrated Assessment Modelling; Adaptation; Climate Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9548
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Assessing the Impact of Biodiversity on Tourism Flows: A model for Tourist Behaviour and its Policy Implications AgEcon
Macagno, Giulia; Loureiro, Maria L.; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.; Tol, Richard S.J..
This analysis provides an example of how biodiversity can be measured by means of different indicators, and how the latter can be used to assess the influence of the biodiversity profile of a region on the tourism flows towards it. Previous studies have considered environmental amenities as one of the determinants of tourism destination choice. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the destination’s biodiversity profile can be considered as a key component of environmental amenities. The main objective of this study is to propose a different perspective on this topic, considering the role of biodiversity on tourists’ choice of destination and duration of stay. Domestic Irish tourist flows have been chosen as a case study. The first step of the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Species Diversity; Habitat Fragmentation; Landscape Diversity; Trip Demand; Indicators; Ecosystem Services; Human Well-Being; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q57.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50406
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Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the USA AgEcon
Tol, Richard S.J..
A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12046
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Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: A Joint Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Tourism AgEcon
Bigano, Andrea; Bosello, Francesco; Roson, Roberto; Tol, Richard S.J..
Climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, nevertheless in the determination of their final effects, especially those involving social-economic responses, interactions among impacts are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a CGE model the two impacts categories are first analyzed separately and then jointly. Comparing the results it is shown that, even though qualitatively joint effects follow the outcomes of the disjoint exercises, quantitatively impact interactions do play a significant role....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12022
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Equity Weighting and the Marginal Damage Costs of Climate Change AgEcon
Anthoff, David; Hepburn, Cameron; Tol, Richard S.J..
Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Marginal Damage Costs; Climate Change; Equity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9325
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How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? AgEcon
Keller, Klaus; Miltich, Louise I.; Robinson, Alexander; Tol, Richard S.J..
Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon Dioxide; Emissions; Scenarios; Data Assimilation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q540.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9321
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International Cooperation on Climate Change Adaptation from an Economic Perspective AgEcon
de Bruin, Kelly C.; Dellink, Rob B.; Tol, Richard S.J..
This paper investigates the economic incentives of countries to cooperate on international adaptation financing. Adaptation is generally implicitly incorporated in the climate change damage functions as used in Integrated Assessment Models. We replace the implicit decision on adaptation with explicit adaptation in a multi-regional setting by using an adjusted RICE model. We show that making adaptation explicit will not affect the optimal mitigation path when adaptation is set at its optimal level. Sub-optimal adaptation will, however, change the optimal mitigation path. Furthermore this paper studies for different forms of cooperation what effects international adaptation transfers will have on (i) domestic adaptation and (ii) the optimal mitigation path....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Adaptation Funding; Integrated Assessment Modeling; Environmental Economics and Policy; H41; Q4; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90949
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Klum@Gtap: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions Into a General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment AgEcon
Ronneberger, Kerstin; Berrittella, Maria; Tol, Richard S.J.; Bosello, Francesco.
In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize the impact and relevance...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12030
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On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change AgEcon
Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S.J..
Estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions require the aggregation of monetised impacts of climate change over people with different incomes and in different jurisdictions. Implicitly or explicitly, such estimates assume a social welfare function and hence a particular attitude towards equity and justice. We show that previous approaches to equity weighing are inappropriate from a national decision maker’s point of view, because domestic impacts are not valued at domestic values. We propose four alternatives (sovereignty, altruism, good neighbour, and compensation) with different views on concern for and liability towards foreigners. The four alternatives imply radically estimates of the social cost of carbon and hence the optimal...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Domestic Climate Policy; Social Cost of Carbon; Equity Weights; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9547
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The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Berrittella, Maria; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S.J..
Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “market solution”. The market price for water adjusts such that supply...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12021
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The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism AgEcon
Tol, Richard S.J..
A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: a global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than double air fares, and have a smaller impact on the total cost of the holiday. In addition, the price elasticity is low. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. Medium distance flights would be affected least. This implies that...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Tourism; Tax; Carbon Dioxide; Aviation; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; L83; L93; Q54.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9327
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The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study AgEcon
Bigano, Andrea; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Tol, Richard S.J..
We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12018
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THE OPTIMAL DEPLETION OF AN EXHAUTIBLE RESOURCE IN A DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AgEcon
Gaitan, Beatriz; Tol, Richard S.J.; Yetkiner, I. Hakan.
The validity of the Hotelling's rule, the fundamental theorem of nonrenewable resource economics, is limited by its partial equilibrium nature. One symptom of this limitation may be the disagreement between the empirical evidence, showing stable or declining resource prices, and the rule, predicting exponentially increasing prices. In this paper, we study the optimal depletion of a nonrenewable resource in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We show that in, the long run, the price of a nonrenewable (i) is constant when the nonrenewable is essential in production, and (ii) it increases only if the rate of return of capital is larger than the capital depreciation rate and if the non-renewable is an inessential input in production. We believe that our...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20207
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The Polluter Pays Principle and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change: An Application of Fund AgEcon
Tol, Richard S.J..
I compare and contrast five climate scenarios: (1) no climate policy; (2) non-cooperative cost-benefit analysis (NC CBA); (3) NC CBA with international permit trade; (4) NC CBA with joint and several liability for climate change damages; and (5) NC CBA with liability proportional to a country’s share in cumulative emissions. As estimates of the marginal damage costs are low, standard NC CBA implies only limited emission abatement. With international permit trade, emission abatement is even less, as the carbon tax is reduced in countries with fast-growing emissions, and because a permit market ignores the positive, dynamic externalities of abatement. Proportional liability shifts abatement effort towards the richer countries, but away from the fast-growing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12058
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Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the USA AgEcon
Socolow, Robert; Pacala, Stephen W.; Tol, Richard S.J..
We compile a database of energy uses, energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions for the USA for the period 1850-2002. We use a model to extrapolate the missing observations on energy use by sector. Overall emission intensity rose between 1850 and 1917, and fell between 1917 and 2002. The leading cause for the rise in emission intensity was the switch from wood to coal, but population growth, economic growth, and electrification contributed as well. After 1917, population growth, economic growth and electrification pushed emissions up further, and there was no net shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources. From 1850 to 2002, emissions were reduced by technological and behavioural change (particularly in transport, manufacturing and households),...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12043
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Why Worry About Climate Change? A Research Agenda AgEcon
Tol, Richard S.J..
Estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions suggest that, although climate change is a problem and some emission reduction is justified, very stringent abatement does not pass the cost-benefit test. However, current estimates of the economic impact of climate change are incomplete. Some of the missing impacts are likely to be positive and others negative, but overall the uncertainty seems to concentrate on the downside risks and current estimates of the damage costs may have a negative bias. The research effort on the economic impacts of climate change is minute, and should be strengthened, with a particular focus on the quantification of uncertainties; estimating missing impacts, interactions between impacts and higher-order...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12047
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