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| Witzke, Heinz Peter; Tonini, Axel. |
| The study provides an agricultural multi commodity analysis able to focus and investigate the ongoing EU milk reform. The analysis is carried with the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model which is a comparative-static, partial equilibrium modelling tool covering the whole of agriculture of EU member states. The model provides a reference run which is a "baseline scenario" where the 2003 CAP Reform is projected into the future. This scenario is compared to a "quota expiry" scenario where milk quotas are abolished by 2015, a "soft landing" scenario where further quota expansions are envisaged and an "early quota expiry" by 2009. Sensitivity analysis is done for different set of quota rent assumptions and export refund abolition. Key results,... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: EU milk reform; CAPSIM; Quota rent.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43654 |
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| Witzke, Heinz Peter. |
| This paper summarises results from the well known game "Wachsen oder Weichen" which mimics characteristics of a land rental market. The original version of the game from Gottingen University has been greatly simplified to investigate the influence of planning errors on outcomes in a game played among agricultural economists at Bonn University. It turned out that players' errors continued to bias the results against the tenants even in the simplified version of the game. Other sources of bias are also discussed in the paper which concludes with suggestions for improvements. Dieses Diskussionspapier faßt Ergebnisse einer Spielrunde mit dem bekannten Pachtmarktspiel "Wachsen oder Weichen" zusammen. Die ursprungliche Version des Spiels aus Gottingen wurde... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18777 |
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| Witzke, Heinz Peter; Heckelei, Thomas. |
| The research presented is part of a larger study aiming at the analysis of reform options for the EU sugar policy regime. This paper focuses on the effects of quota reduction and support price cuts. A thorough theoretical analysis investigates the implications of farm heterogeneity for aggregate supply modeling purposes under the current sugar regime. It can be shown that the treatment of sugar quantities produced under the different quotas and without quota can be treated as different products in an aggregate profit function analysis. Marginal and discrete price and quota effects are derived. Subsequently, the derived behavioral characteristics are implemented in the framework of the agricultural sector model CAPSIM to provide a broader policy evaluation.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19807 |
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| Witzke, Heinz Peter; Britz, Wolfgang. |
| In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; Forecasting; Modelling; Expert information; Agricultural and Food Policy; C15; C53; Q11; Q19; Q21. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24666 |
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| Isoard, Stephane; Witzke, Heinz Peter. |
| This paper reports the results of a European agricultural outlook exercise that updates former studies in three ways, i.e. in terms of timeframes, spatial coverage and policy context. This updated European agricultural outlook constitutes a key component of the forthcoming 'State of the Environment and Outlook report' of the European Environment Agency (EEA). Both activity variables and environmental indicators are reported for a baseline projection and alternative scenarios. The main findings include the following: European harvested land is expected to continue to be primarily used to fodder activities and production of cereals (80% of total area); yields increase is projected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; European agricultural policy; Environment; Agribusiness; C61; Q18; Q21. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24500 |
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