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| Taylor, Mykel R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Crop basis; Current information; Naive forecast; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8625 |
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| Hatchett, Robert B.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Anderson, Kim B.. |
| The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last year’s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Grain; Law of One Price; Moving averages; Structural change; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61057 |
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