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Registros recuperados: 10
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Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates? AgEcon
Fischer, Carolyn; Morgenstern, Richard D..
Estimates of marginal abatement costs for reducing carbon emissions in the United States by the major economic-energy models vary by a factor of five, undermining support for mandatory policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We use meta analysis to explain these cost differences, holding policy regimes constant and focusing on the role of baseline emissions projections and structural characteristics of the models. The results indicate that certain assumptions, like freer trade and greater disaggregation of regions and nonenergy goods, lead to lower estimates of marginal abatement costs, while more disaggregated energy goods raise them. Other choices, like myopic optimization by households or the inclusion of an international finance sector, seem less...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate models; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q4; Q25; D58.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10537
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CMIP5 Model Intercomparison of Freshwater Budget and Circulation in the North Atlantic ArchiMer
Deshayes, Julie; Curry, Ruth; Msadek, Rym.
The subpolar North Atlantic is a center of variability of ocean properties, wind stress curl, and air-sea exchanges. Observations and hindcast simulations suggest that from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre became fresher while the gyre and meridional circulations intensified. This is opposite to the relationship of freshening causing a weakened circulation, most often reproduced by climate models. The authors hypothesize that both these configurations exist but dominate on different time scales: a fresher subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at interannual frequencies (configuration A), and a saltier subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at longer periods (configuration B). Rather than going into the detail of...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Freshwater; Climate models; Model comparison; Climate variability; North Atlantic Oscillation.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00199/31024/29429.pdf
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Global Air-Sea CO2 Flux in 22 CMIP5 Models: Multiyear Mean and Interannual Variability* ArchiMer
Dong, Fang; Li, Yangchun; Wang, Bin; Huang, Wenyu; Shi, Yanyan; Dong, Wenhao.
To assess the capability of the latest Earth system models (ESMs) in representing historical global air-sea CO2 flux, 22 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) are analyzed, with a focus on the spatial distribution of multiyear mean and interannual variability. Results show that the global distribution of air-sea CO2 flux is reasonable in most of the models and that the main differences between models and observationally based results exist in regions with strong vertical movement. The annual mean flux in the 18-member multimodel ensemble (MME; four models were excluded because of their poor performances) mean during 1996-2004 is 1.95 Pg C yr(-1) (1 Pg = 10(15) g; positive values mean into the ocean), and all but one...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Interannual variability; Model output statistics; Model comparison; Variability; Models and modeling; Ocean models; Ensembles; Climate models.
Ano: 2016 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00383/49421/49858.pdf
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Heat balance in the Nordic Seas in a global 1/12° coupled model ArchiMer
Treguier, Anne-marie; Mathiot, Pierre; Graham, Tim; Copsey, Dan; Lique, Camille; Sterlin, Jean.
The Nordic Seas are a gateway to the Arctic Ocean, where Atlantic water undergoes a strong cooling during its transit. Here we investigate the heat balance of these regions in the high resolution Met Office Global Coupled Model GC3 with a 1/12_ grid. The GC3 model reproduces resolution Met Office Global Coupled Model GC3 with a 1/12_ grid. The GC3 model reproduces the contrasted ice conditions and ocean heat loss between the eastern and western regions of the Nordic Seas. In the west (Greenland and Iceland seas), the heat loss experienced by the ocean is stronger than the atmospheric heat gain, because of the cooling by ice melt. The latter is a major contribution to the heat loss over the path of the East Greenland Current and west of Svalbard. In the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Arctic; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Ocean dynamics; Eddies; Climate models; Oceanic variability.
Ano: 2021 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00654/76590/77739.pdf
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Oysters as sentinels of climate variability and climate change in coastal ecosystems ArchiMer
Thomas, Yoann; Cassou, Christophe; Gernez, Pierre; Pouvreau, Stephane.
Beyond key ecological services, marine resources are crucial for human food security and socio-economical sustainability. Among them, shellfish aquaculture and fishing are of primary importance but become more vulnerable under anthropogenic pressure, as evidenced by reported mass mortality events linked to global changes such as ocean warming and acidification, chemical contamination, and diseases. Understanding climate-related risks is a vital objective for conservation strategies, ecosystems management and human health. We provide here a comprehensive study of the historical mortality of adult oysters related to observed climate variability along the French Atlantic coast from 1986 to 2015, and we built on this knowledge to develop hindcast and forecast...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: North Atlantic; Weather regime; Oyster; Monitoring network; Mortality risk assessment; Climate models; RCP scenarios.
Ano: 2018 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00461/57255/59281.pdf
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Programação em R utilizando multicores: um estudo de caso envolvendo dados de modelos climáticos. Infoteca-e
NAKAI, A. M.; RAMOS, E. N..
O objetivo deste trabalho é demonstrar o uso de multiprocessamento em R. Para isso, apresenta um estudo de caso envolvendo o cálculo da média móvel de séries de chuva mensal, utilizando dados de modelos de projeção climática.
Tipo: Comunicado Técnico (INFOTECA-E) Palavras-chave: Modelo climático; Software estatístico; Linguagem R; Multiprocessamento em R; Clima; Climate models; Computer software.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/949859
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Sensibilidade da demanda de água para irrigação a mudanças climáticas e fatores operacionais dos sistemas de produção. Infoteca-e
MAIA, A. de H. N.; GONDIM, R. S.; CASTRO, M. A. H. de.
Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a sensibilidade da demanda de água para irrigação numa sub-região da bacia do Rio Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará, a variáveis climáticas e fatores operacionais dos sistemas de cultivo. A necessidade hídrica bruta de culturas (NHB) é estimada usando um modelo simplificado baseado num balanço hídrico, a partir de dados de evapotranspiração mensal das culturas (ETP), que depende da temperatura e da composição de culturas, total mensal de chuva (PPT) e eficiência de aplicação de água dos sistemas de irrigação (EA). Foi realizada uma análise de sensibilidade algébrica, para quantificar o efeito de alterações relativas nas seguintes variáveis de entrada do modelo sobre a NHB: temperatura média mensal (T), usada para...
Tipo: Boletim de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (INFOTECA-E) Palavras-chave: Demanda hídrica; Semiárido.; Irrigação; Agricultura; Modelo matemático; Mudança Climática.; Agriculture; Irrigation requirement; Climate models; Mathematical models.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/1067318
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Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions PAB
Souza,Paulo Jorge de Oliveira Ponte de; Farias,José Renato Bouças; Abreu,José Paulo Mourão de Melo e; Ribeiro,Aristides; Rocha,Edson José Paulino da; Botelho,Marcel do Nascimento; Sousa,Adriano Marlisom Leão de.
The objective of this work was to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a new version of the soybean growth and yield model developed by Sinclair, under natural field conditions in northeastern Amazon. The meteorological data and the values of soybean growth and leaf area were obtained from an agrometeorological experiment carried out in Paragominas, PA, Brazil, from 2006 to 2009. The climatic conditions during the experiment were very distinct, with a slight reduction in rainfall in 2007, due to the El Niño phenomenon. There was a reduction in the leaf area index (LAI) and in biomass production during this year, which was reproduced by the model. The simulation of the LAI had root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55 to 0.82 m² m-2, from 2006 to 2009. The...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Glycine max; Amazon region; Climate models; Leaf area index; Soybean crop expansion; Yield simulation.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-204X2011000600001
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The Mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Slowdown Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline ArchiMer
Liu, Wei; Fedorov, Alexey; Sevellec, Florian.
We explore the mechanisms by which Arctic sea ice decline affects the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a suite of numerical experiments perturbing the Arctic sea ice radiative budget within a fully coupled climate model. The imposed perturbations act to increase the amount of heat available to melt ice, leading to a rapid Arctic sea ice retreat within 5 years after the perturbations are activated. In response, the AMOC gradually weakens over the next similar to 100 years. The AMOC changes can be explained by the accumulation in the Arctic and subsequent downstream propagation to the North Atlantic of buoyancy anomalies controlled by temperature and salinity. Initially, during the first decade or so, the Arctic sea ice loss results in...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Arctic; Meridional overturning circulation; Climate models.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00599/71107/69388.pdf
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Viabilidade da irrigação suplementar do feijoeiro na época das águas. Infoteca-e
JUSTINO, L. F.; ALVES JÚNIOR, J.; BATTISTI, R.; STONE, L. F.; HEINEMANN, A. B..
O estudo visou quantificar o retorno econômico proporcionado pela irrigação suplementar do feijoeiro na época das águas. A produtividade do feijoeiro foi simulada para 30 anos no modelo de cultura Cropgro-Dry Bean para a cultivar Pérola, considerando as datas de semeadura de 1º de novembro a 1º de janeiro e quatro manejos hídricos: sem irrigação; irrigação com 70%, 50% e 30% do total de água disponível no solo (TAD). As irrigações a 70%, 50% e 30% do TAD aumentaram a produtividade em 26,7% a 41,4%; 5,5% a 14,5%; e 0,4% a 2,4% , respectivamente . A demanda média foi de 53 mm ciclo-1 no manejo de 70% do TAD e de 19 mm ciclo-1 no de 50% e de 30%, sem necessidade de irrigação na maioria das estações de cultivo. O atraso na semeadura em relação a 1º de novembro...
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Feijão; Phaseolus Vulgaris; Risco Climático; Modelo de Simulação; Análise Econômica; Manejo; Irrigação; Método de Irrigação; Rendimento; Irrigation management; Climate models; Economic analysis; Crop models; Yields; Beans.
Ano: 2022 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/1140955
Registros recuperados: 10
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